Which State Will Have the Closest 2026 Governor’s Race

A letter signed by 70 Latino officials urges Democratic Governors Association chair and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear to direct campaign funds toward Gina Hinojosa's bid for Texas governor, warning that a failure to invest could cost Beshear Latino support in a future presidential run. The letter cites Texas's large Latino electorate and concerns about Republican gains with Latino voters in the last election cycle.

The DGA has so far not spent money on advertising in Texas, instead prioritizing races in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin, which the organization apparently views as more competitive. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards left office in the 1990s, when the state was far less reliably Republican. Whether Hinojosa can replicate Richards's appeal, particularly among suburban women, remains an open question. The dispute highlights an internal Democratic debate over where to allocate limited resources ahead of upcoming gubernatorial contests, and whether Texas represents a genuine opportunity or a distraction from more winnable races.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has vetoed Assembly Bill 2164, which would have barred California governors from honoring extradition requests from states seeking to prosecute people for performing or assisting with abortions or gender transition procedures banned elsewhere. The bill passed the Democratic-controlled Legislature largely along party lines. Newsom said he supports the underlying goal but objected to the Legislature binding a future governor's executive authority over extradition, calling it "an entirely executive function" that should remain discretionary.

California is among roughly 20 states with shield laws protecting abortion or gender-affirming care providers. Reproductive Freedom for All criticized the veto, warning that a potential win by Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton could leave providers vulnerable, though polling shows Democrat Xavier Becerra with a substantial lead in the race. Newsom, seen as a likely 2028 Democratic presidential contender and currently polling second behind Kamala Harris in early primary surveys, touted his broader record on reproductive rights protections despite the veto.

Polling shows Democrats with a notable generic-ballot edge and competitive Senate races even in red states like Texas, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa, fueling talk of a possible "blue wave." That raises the bar for what counts as success: history shows the president's party almost always loses House seats in midterms, and the House and Senate often move in opposite directions. Republicans hold a razor-thin House majority (218-214) and a 53-45 Senate edge, so Democrats need net gains of four seats in each chamber to take control. Analysts note tossup races favor Democrats overall, but unique factors in each state make outcomes uncertain, and any result short of major gains could be framed as a disappointment for Democrats despite favorable conditions.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) has sent Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont a letter demanding an apology after a 29-year-old Ohio man, Austin J. Karr Grimes, was killed in an August 29 crash in Fulton County, Ohio. Authorities say Washington G. Naula Ochoa, 34, who held a Connecticut "drive-only" license issued to people who cannot prove legal status, ran a stop sign and struck Grimes' SUV, which overturned. Two passengers, a woman and a child, suffered minor injuries. Naula Ochoa has been charged with vehicular homicide.

Moreno's letter blames Connecticut's licensing policy for the death and gives Lamont five days to disclose how many drive-only licenses have been issued, how many holders have committed crimes or registered to vote, and the program's cost. Lamont responded with condolences but defended the policy, saying it improves road safety and insurance rates. Connecticut is among 19 states plus Washington, D.C., that license drivers without legal status; research on crash risk from such laws is mixed, with studies reaching differing conclusions on fatality rates.

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey is facing calls from Catholic advocacy groups to be excommunicated after signing the "Prioritizing Patient Access to Care Act" (H. 5595) on Aug. 10. The law removes the state's previous 24-week limit on abortion, allowing the procedure throughout pregnancy at a physician's discretion. Massachusetts joins Alaska, Vermont, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland, New Jersey, and Washington, D.C., in permitting abortion until birth. State data show 99 abortions at 24 weeks or later in 2024, up from 84 in 2023.

Healey, who identifies as Catholic, drew backlash after publicly celebrating the signing. LifeSite's petition urging Boston Archbishop Richard Henning to excommunicate her has surpassed 25,000 signatures, and CatholicVote's Kelsey Reinhardt sent bishops a formal letter demanding accountability. The Archdiocese has called the law "gravely immoral" but has not announced any canonical action. Nine House Democrats, including Rep. Jeffrey Turco, broke ranks to oppose the bill, calling it "extremist" and "barbaric," while Healey's office defended her as "a governor for all people of all faiths."

Roughly two dozen Democratic-led states and the District of Columbia, including Washington, Wisconsin, California and Pennsylvania, filed a new lawsuit against the U.S. Postal Service on August 26, challenging a rule implementing President Trump's executive order limiting mail-in voting ahead of the midterms. The suit, filed in a Massachusetts federal court, comes days after the Supreme Court lifted an injunction blocking part of the order, ruling the earlier Democratic challenge was premature rather than affirming its legality. California's suit followed shortly after, with Attorney General Rob Bonta calling the rule a "clear violation of the Constitution" and citing the state's heavy reliance on mail voting.

The USPS rule requires states to register mail voters into a new USPS database and get federal approval for ballot envelope designs featuring digital barcodes before ballots can be delivered; USPS says it won't deliver ballots to voters absent from the list or in noncompliant envelopes. State officials argue the rule violates the Constitution's assignment of election authority to states and risks disenfranchising voters this close to the election. The coalition seeks a temporary restraining order. Trump's original order remains blocked under a separate injunction, and the administration defends the rule as an election-security measure, though it remains unclear whether it will affect November's elections.

California's Democratic presidential primary is set for March 3, Super Tuesday, but the state's outcome will likely hinge on results from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, which vote earlier. Kamala Harris's exit from the race last week has fueled speculation about who benefits, but strategists note she had only modest California support (7-8% in late-2019 polling), with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren leading, followed by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg. Analysts expect California voters and donors to wait and see how candidates perform elsewhere before committing, since mail voting begins February 3, the same day as the Iowa caucuses.

Democratic strategists point out California has a history of backing eventual losers, including Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008. Michael Bloomberg, skipping the four early states, is banking on a stumble by frontrunners to gain traction on Super Tuesday. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who endorsed Harris, is being courted by rival campaigns but isn't expected to endorse soon. Harris's network of California donors and fundraisers is now considered up for grabs among the remaining candidates.

Shasta County's Board of Supervisors has canceled its contract with Dominion Voting Systems and is weighing a switch to hand-counted ballots, driven by unproven fraud claims embraced by the board's hard-right majority. MyPillow CEO and prominent election denier Mike Lindell praised the move, calling on other counties to follow suit, and offered to help fund any resulting lawsuits after speaking with a Shasta supervisor. Kern County supervisors similarly fielded hours of testimony from residents alleging the county's Dominion system was rigged.

Dominion, one of the largest U.S. voting equipment suppliers and currently in use in 41 of California's 58 counties, said the Shasta decision reflects lasting damage from false claims that spread after President Trump's 2020 election loss. Shasta's clerk and registrar said the county now effectively lacks a voting system. The dispute underscores how 2020 election-fraud narratives continue to shape local election administration well beyond the original battleground states.

Alaska's U.S. House primary has narrowed to a general-election contest between Republican incumbent Nick Begich, independent Bill Hill, an incarcerated New York Democrat, and a Fairbanks Libertarian, after several Democratic contenders dropped out. Certified results showed Begich winning the primary with 44.6% to Hill's 32.5%, a 12-point gap. Anchorage Democrat Matt Schultz, the party's former front-runner, suspended his campaign in July, citing weak institutional support, and endorsed Hill; other Democratic candidates also withdrew to consolidate anti-Begich votes.

Hill, a Dena'ina Athabascan educator and fisherman, is campaigning on healthcare costs and inflation while also backing oil and gas development alongside renewables. Begich, part of a prominent Alaska political family who unseated Mary Peltola in 2024, is running on legislative wins including energy development measures and the Trump-backed tax and spending law. Begich holds a large fundraising edge. Political analysts are split: some see a plausible path for Hill given Alaska's heavy independent registration and a national climate favoring Democrats and independents, while others call Begich's reelection all but certain under Alaska's ranked-choice general election system.

Videos circulating from the Portland, Oregon area show local activists, including bar co-owner Kiley Delgado and her husband Karim, using personal vehicles to blockade and surround U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers during field operations. The footage, recorded by Delgado herself, shows cars maneuvered to box in federal vehicles while bystanders are recruited in real time to help trap the agents, who in one instance reportedly had to drive through a residential hedge to leave the scene.

The incidents come as the Department of Homeland Security has expanded immigration enforcement activity in sanctuary jurisdictions across several states, including Oregon, prompting increased counter-surveillance and direct-action tactics from local activist networks tracking ICE vehicles near Portland. Critics note that similar vehicle-blockade incidents involving other residents have previously drawn arrests and political attention, including commentary from Oregon's congressional delegation, raising questions about uneven enforcement. No charges against the Delgados have been publicly reported. The episodes highlight escalating friction between federal immigration authorities and sanctuary-city activists as enforcement operations intensify nationwide.