United States House of Representatives

Iowa's U.S. Senate race recorded the largest nationwide jump in ad spending between Sept. 28-Oct. 11 and Oct. 12-25, rising by about $22.77 million to roughly $64.59 million, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. That put Iowa fourth nationally in Senate ad spending for the period, behind Ohio, Texas, and Michigan, with outside groups funding about three-quarters of the total and spending tilting toward Democrats. The Cook Political Report has shifted Iowa's gubernatorial and Senate races, along with three of its four U.S. House races, further left this cycle. Analysts say the spending shift signals the battleground map moving from states like Georgia and North Carolina into redder territory as races near their close.

The Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Ashley Hinson in the race for Iowa's open Senate seat, with president Aaron Lehman citing damage from tariff policy and rising diesel, fertilizer and pesticide costs. Lehman also criticized the shifting schedule for a Trump rally supporting Hinson, which was reported off and then back on before planned Sunday appearances in Iowa and Kansas. Hinson has Trump's and the Iowa Farm Bureau's backing. The contest to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst is rated a tossup, with multiple recent polls showing Turek and Hinson within a few points of each other heading into Election Day.

A group of 15 Texas Republican House members, led by Rep. August Pfluger, is threatening to derail the more than $1 trillion farm bill over a Senate provision expanding ethanol blending requirements. The lawmakers argue the measure, backed by Midwestern senators and corn-state interests, would raise costs for Texas oil refineries and push fuel prices higher. The dispute revives a long-running fight between the agriculture and oil industries over federal ethanol mandates dating to 2005. The House already passed its version of the farm bill in April; the Senate has yet to act before the current congressional session ends in January, and Texas farm groups worry the ethanol dispute could further delay final passage.

Ohio voters choose a new secretary of state on Nov. 3, with Republican state Treasurer Robert Sprague, Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo, and Libertarian Tom Pruss on the ballot. The race has turned on two election-policy flashpoints: a proposed constitutional amendment (Issue 3) locking in photo ID requirements, which Sprague backs and Russo and Pruss oppose, and absentee ballot drop boxes, which Sprague wants eliminated while Russo and Pruss favor expanding. Sprague, the best-funded candidate, emphasizes election security and points to fraud cases in other states; Russo argues Ohio's drop boxes are already secure and accuses Republicans of suppressing access. A planned debate between Sprague and Russo never materialized.

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.

Ohio voters on Nov. 3 will pick a successor to term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine, with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy facing Democrat Amy Acton and Libertarian Don Kissick. The same ballot includes a special U.S. Senate election to fill the remainder of JD Vance's term, pitting incumbent appointee Jon Husted against challengers; the winner serves until 2028. All 15 Ohio U.S. House seats are also up, under a new Republican-favorable congressional map targeting Democratic-held districts. In Kentucky, Republican Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker are competing for the seat long held by retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Indiana will re-elect its House delegation, and ballot measures appear in all three states.

Third-party and unaffiliated candidates appear in all four of Utah's congressional districts this fall, though none qualified for official debates and none poll in double digits. Figures like unaffiliated candidates Robert Moesinger and Steven Burt, Libertarian Taylor Wright, Independent American Carlton Bowen and Constitution Party nominee Cassie Easley say they aren't running to win but to challenge the two-party system, push reforms like ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts, and engage disaffected young voters.

Historically, Utah's third-party candidates have drawn minimal support, averaging roughly 2% since 1914, with Evan McMullin a notable exception. Rising unaffiliated voter registration suggests some appetite for alternatives, but it remains unclear whether that will translate into votes for non-major-party candidates this cycle.