Kansas

The Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Ashley Hinson in the race for Iowa's open Senate seat, with president Aaron Lehman citing damage from tariff policy and rising diesel, fertilizer and pesticide costs. Lehman also criticized the shifting schedule for a Trump rally supporting Hinson, which was reported off and then back on before planned Sunday appearances in Iowa and Kansas. Hinson has Trump's and the Iowa Farm Bureau's backing. The contest to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst is rated a tossup, with multiple recent polls showing Turek and Hinson within a few points of each other heading into Election Day.

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.

President Trump canceled his planned Kansas rally for Sen. Roger Marshall (R), with the RNC citing Republicans' "strong position" in the state. Marshall downplayed the move, saying he's "doing so well in the polls" that Trump's time is better spent elsewhere. But recent surveys tell a different story: CNN/SSRS, The Washington Post/George Mason University, and Emerson College polls all show Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Marshall in a state Trump won by over 15 points in 2024. Rising fuel costs and Trump's declining approval rating in Kansas appear to be factors. Forecaster Decision Desk HQ now gives Marshall just a 58% reelection chance, down from 90% earlier in the cycle, and projects a narrow Democratic Senate majority overall.

Kansas voters are deciding a constitutional amendment to Article 5, Section 1 that would make explicit that only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in the state. Current language implies citizenship through its phrasing of "every citizen," while the proposed wording states no person may be a qualified elector unless they are a U.S. citizen, at least 18, and a resident of the voting area (barring a residency exception).

Supporters say the change clarifies existing law and blocks non-citizen voting; opponents call it redundant, since citizenship is already required, and warn it could open the door to future proof-of-citizenship requirements that risk disenfranchising eligible voters.

Early voting continues to outpace prior midterm cycles ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Nationally, more than 12.6 million Americans have voted early, with a CNN analysis of 25 states finding Democrats leading turnout among both high- and low-propensity voters, especially in Kansas and North Carolina. Iowa absentee ballots are up nearly 30% from four years ago, and Florida has topped 3.5 million ballots cast with Republicans narrowly ahead. Oklahoma saw a 41% jump in first-day turnout over 2022, driven largely by Democrats and independents, though Republicans still led overall. In Buncombe County, N.C., turnout has already surpassed all of 2022. Analysts caution early returns don't reliably predict final results.