New Hampshire Governor Race: Margin of Victory

New Hampshire's legislature has overridden Gov. Kelly Ayotte's vetoes to enact two laws raising costs for out-of-state visitors. A new 10-year transportation plan increases tolls for drivers paying cash or using an E-ZPass issued outside New Hampshire, while those with a funded New Hampshire E-ZPass account avoid the hike. Starting in January 2027, the Hampton toll on I-95 rises from $2 to $4, Bedford and Hooksett tolls double from $1 to $2, and the Spaulding Turnpike tolls in Dover and Somersworth increase from 75 cents to $1.50. It marks the first statewide toll increase since 2007.

A separate law will roughly double state park parking fees for out-of-state visitors, from $4 to $8 for most parks, with supporters citing heavy use by Massachusetts residents. Ayotte called the toll increase a tax hike on state residents, though both overrides passed with bipartisan support. Out-of-staters can avoid higher tolls by obtaining a New Hampshire E-ZPass regardless of residency.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Sept. 24 shows Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46%, the best result for Collins in any public poll since Jackson entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll taken earlier in September had Jackson ahead by five points, underscoring how close and unsettled the race remains.

Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state Trump largely lost in 2024, making the seat a top Democratic target. She has historically outperformed polling, having won comfortably in 2020 despite trailing throughout that campaign. The Times poll was conducted largely before a Sept. 22 ProPublica report alleging a pay-to-play scheme tied to her 2020 campaign, which Collins denies, calling it a "partisan hit job." Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, entered the race after primary winner Graham Platner dropped out amid misconduct allegations. Voters see Collins favorably despite her largely pro-Trump voting record in 2025, while a majority in Maine disapprove of Trump's job performance.

Fidelity Investments has ended its hybrid work policy for its Boston-based workforce, requiring more than 6,000 employees to return to in-person work five days a week starting this week. The change ends a two-out-of-four-weeks hybrid arrangement that had been in place for the past two years, making Fidelity one of the largest Boston employers to fully reverse pandemic-era remote work flexibility.

The shift is expected to add to local commuter traffic and is being closely watched as a signal of broader corporate return-to-office trends among major financial and investment firms. Fidelity's move follows similar full-time office mandates from other large employers nationally, as companies weigh productivity, culture, and real estate considerations against employee preferences for flexibility. The change coincides with the start of the school year in Boston, compounding morning commute congestion in the area.

Republican Paul LePage, the former two-term Maine governor known as "Trump before Trump," was expected to easily flip the open 2nd District seat after Democratic Representative Jared Golden's retirement. Instead, rising fuel and living costs tied to tariffs and the Iran conflict have narrowed the race against Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap, who won a contested primary after Golden initially withdrew. Polls show a close contest in a district Trump carried by nine points in 2024, prompting heavy outside spending and visits from Speaker Mike Johnson and Vice President JD Vance. LePage, 78, has softened his combative style and touted his access to Trump, while Dunlap emphasizes cost-of-living concerns and LePage's past Medicaid expansion vetoes. The race is seen as the GOP's best chance to flip a Democratic-held seat this cycle.

Maine Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson is facing renewed scrutiny over his role in passing 2023 legislation that made Maine the first state to decriminalize selling sex. As Maine Senate president, Jackson voted for the bill, presided over its passage, and signed it before it went to the governor. The law also replaced terms like "prostitute" with "person for prostitution" and "prostituted" throughout state statute.

The measure drew opposition from both sex-worker advocacy groups, who argued for autonomy in the industry, and Maine law enforcement, which cited staffing shortages amid rising overdose deaths, homicides, and crashes. The bill advanced as Maine grappled with a housing shortage, a worsening opioid crisis, record homelessness, and high child food insecurity.

Jackson, who also backed gender-transition policy measures for minors and opposed several girls' sports protection bills, has separately faced scrutiny over workplace conduct allegations, his decades-long relationship with a second cousin, and past tax and assault issues. He won the Democratic nomination in July and will challenge incumbent Sen. Susan Collins.

Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is running to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen against former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu. A win would make Pappas the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate; only one openly gay senator, Tammy Baldwin, currently serves. Pappas, first elected to the House in 2018, says he isn't campaigning on the milestone, and his sexuality has barely surfaced in the race. The contest is pivotal to Democrats' hopes of flipping the Senate, with national Republican groups spending heavily to flip a seat in a state Democrats carried narrowly in 2024.

LGBTQ+ advocates say a Pappas victory would offer representation gains nationally, while researchers note identifying as gay can still carry an electoral penalty in some races.

New Hampshire Republicans voted Tuesday in an eight-person Senate primary dominated by two former officeholders: ex-Sen. John Sununu and ex-Sen. Scott Brown, both making comeback bids decades after their prior tenures. Sununu, who last appeared on a ballot 18 years ago, benefits from voter recognition of his younger brother Chris, the recent New Hampshire governor, and led in polls and fundraising after securing President Trump's endorsement despite past criticism of him. Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and Trump's onetime ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, trailed but argued his independence from the party establishment and lack of major endorsements made him a stronger general-election candidate. Notably, Trump's endorsement played a smaller role than in many other GOP primaries this cycle.

The winner faces the Democratic primary victor, a contest between U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, backed by party leadership, and progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. The general election, replacing retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, is expected to be competitive given national dissatisfaction with the political status quo and could factor into control of the Senate.

Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown is running a long-shot campaign for the New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination against John E. Sununu, son of former governor John H. Sununu, who has consolidated establishment support including an endorsement from President Trump. Sununu entered the race after his more popular brother, former governor Chris Sununu, declined to run.

Polling shows Sununu with a commanding lead: a University of New Hampshire survey of likely Republican voters put his favorability far ahead of Brown's, with Brown also carrying notably higher unfavorability numbers. RealClearPolitics' polling average shows Sununu leading by a wide margin, and outlets like The Cook Political Report treat Sununu as the de facto nominee against expected Democratic candidate Representative Chris Pappas. Brown, a Trump-appointed former ambassador to New Zealand and the 2010 winner of Ted Kennedy's former Senate seat, argues that "New Hampshire breaks late" and says he remains confident despite the deficit. The primary outcome will determine who faces Pappas in the general election.

New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.

Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.