Iowa

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who once pledged to be President Trump's strongest Senate ally, is now striking a more independent tone as she faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa, a state Trump has carried three times. Hinson has continued to campaign alongside Trump and feature him in ads, but has also pledged to be "a thorn in his side" if he acts against Iowa's interests, a notable break from other Republican Senate candidates in red states.

The shift reflects signs of eroding enthusiasm for Trump among some of his own supporters ahead of the midterm election, adding uncertainty to a race in a traditionally reliable Republican state.

Iowa, long reliable MAGA territory, is showing signs of competitiveness. Polls show Democratic state auditor Rob Sand consistently ahead of Republican Zack Lahn in the governor's race, despite outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds winning by 19 points four years ago and Trump carrying the state by over 13 points. Grassroots activity has grown alongside the polling shift, including No Kings rallies in Dubuque and Des Moines and early-voting pushes. In the Senate race to replace retiring Joni Ernst, Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson faces organized opposition from Iowans for Decency, a bipartisan PAC formed by her former teachers and fellow alumni, ahead of Democrat Josh Turek's campaign.

Iowa's U.S. Senate race recorded the largest nationwide jump in ad spending between Sept. 28-Oct. 11 and Oct. 12-25, rising by about $22.77 million to roughly $64.59 million, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. That put Iowa fourth nationally in Senate ad spending for the period, behind Ohio, Texas, and Michigan, with outside groups funding about three-quarters of the total and spending tilting toward Democrats. The Cook Political Report has shifted Iowa's gubernatorial and Senate races, along with three of its four U.S. House races, further left this cycle. Analysts say the spending shift signals the battleground map moving from states like Georgia and North Carolina into redder territory as races near their close.

The Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Ashley Hinson in the race for Iowa's open Senate seat, with president Aaron Lehman citing damage from tariff policy and rising diesel, fertilizer and pesticide costs. Lehman also criticized the shifting schedule for a Trump rally supporting Hinson, which was reported off and then back on before planned Sunday appearances in Iowa and Kansas. Hinson has Trump's and the Iowa Farm Bureau's backing. The contest to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst is rated a tossup, with multiple recent polls showing Turek and Hinson within a few points of each other heading into Election Day.

A group of 15 Texas Republican House members, led by Rep. August Pfluger, is threatening to derail the more than $1 trillion farm bill over a Senate provision expanding ethanol blending requirements. The lawmakers argue the measure, backed by Midwestern senators and corn-state interests, would raise costs for Texas oil refineries and push fuel prices higher. The dispute revives a long-running fight between the agriculture and oil industries over federal ethanol mandates dating to 2005. The House already passed its version of the farm bill in April; the Senate has yet to act before the current congressional session ends in January, and Texas farm groups worry the ethanol dispute could further delay final passage.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has launched the state's Scholarship Granting Organization application, allowing nonprofits to apply to distribute K-12 scholarships under the new federal Education Freedom Tax Credit program. Created under President Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill," the program begins in 2027 and offers the first federal tax credit for private donations supporting K-12 scholarships. It relies entirely on private contributions rather than government funding. Individual taxpayers can claim up to $1,700 annually, and married couples up to $3,400, for qualifying donations. Eligible students must come from families earning below 300% of their area's median income. Iowa must submit its approved organizations list to the IRS by early 2027.

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.