Florida

President Trump canceled his planned Kansas rally for Sen. Roger Marshall (R), with the RNC citing Republicans' "strong position" in the state. Marshall downplayed the move, saying he's "doing so well in the polls" that Trump's time is better spent elsewhere. But recent surveys tell a different story: CNN/SSRS, The Washington Post/George Mason University, and Emerson College polls all show Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Marshall in a state Trump won by over 15 points in 2024. Rising fuel costs and Trump's declining approval rating in Kansas appear to be factors. Forecaster Decision Desk HQ now gives Marshall just a 58% reelection chance, down from 90% earlier in the cycle, and projects a narrow Democratic Senate majority overall.

Early voting continues to outpace prior midterm cycles ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Nationally, more than 12.6 million Americans have voted early, with a CNN analysis of 25 states finding Democrats leading turnout among both high- and low-propensity voters, especially in Kansas and North Carolina. Iowa absentee ballots are up nearly 30% from four years ago, and Florida has topped 3.5 million ballots cast with Republicans narrowly ahead. Oklahoma saw a 41% jump in first-day turnout over 2022, driven largely by Democrats and independents, though Republicans still led overall. In Buncombe County, N.C., turnout has already surpassed all of 2022. Analysts caution early returns don't reliably predict final results.

A Democratic-backed super PAC has poured $2 million into ads attacking Florida Sen. Ashley Moody over her record on releasing Jeffrey Epstein's files, featuring survivor Marina Lacerda questioning Moody's priorities. The ad notes Moody joined other Republicans in blocking a September 2025 measure tied to the defense budget, but omits that the Senate later approved a standalone release bill by unanimous consent. The National Republican Senatorial Committee called the ads false and misleading, saying Moody ultimately supported transparency legislation. Epstein-related ads have run in 63 congressional races nationally, totaling $76 million.

With Election Day days away, Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who accuses Moody of refusing to debate and of involvement in misappropriating $10 million in Medicaid funds, which Moody denies. Moody has campaigned with gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, branding Nixon a communist, a label Nixon rejects.

Two serious crashes on Orange County's State Road 429 within five days have renewed attention on Florida's Move Over law. On October 23, six people died when a speeding SUV without headlights struck a Road Ranger's truck near Weatherby Road. Days later, on October 27, an FHP trooper was seriously injured and airlifted to a hospital after being hit during a lane-closure operation; the driver faces pending charges.

State data shows 170 Move Over crashes in Florida this year, with three deaths, and 385 crashes over the past two years. Officials expanded the law in January 2025 to cover hazard-light situations like roadside tire changes, though awareness remains low. Retired FHP Chief Joe Lopez urged stiffer penalties to improve compliance.

With one week until Election Day, Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are campaigning across Florida to close out the governor's race. Donalds, touring by bus, cast Jolly as inconsistent and pledged cost-cutting measures and government transparency. Jolly, framing his campaign around change, argued a Democratic win would defy Florida's deep-red lean. A new University of North Florida poll shows a tightening race, with Donalds and Jolly close and a small share of voters undecided. Transgender athletes in women's sports has also emerged as a flashpoint, with Donalds' campaign highlighting past remarks by Jolly on the issue and attacking his position, while Jolly has called for leaving related decisions to courts and sports leagues.