Nevada Governor Race: Margin of Victory

California advocacy groups battling Gov. Gavin Newsom over labor rules, artificial intelligence regulation, transportation funding, and cap-and-trade policy are increasingly pressuring him outside California, betting that his likely 2028 presidential ambitions give them new leverage. Transit advocates have run newspaper ads in South Carolina and Nevada targeting Newsom-backed climate program changes, a business group put up a Times Square billboard attacking his record, and labor leaders have warned they will confront him on the campaign trail over AI and workplace protections if he does not act. Labor leaders from Iowa and North Carolina have publicly said they will meet him at events like the Iowa State Fair unless he negotiates on AI and worker protections.

Strategists say the tactic aims less at swaying votes now than at forcing unresolved Sacramento fights into a national narrative before rivals or opposition campaigns can weaponize them. California Labor Federation President Lorena Gonzalez says talks with Newsom's office have intensified, including after labor allies confronted him during a Texas trip, and that he now discusses AI as a threat to workers. Newsom's office insists out-of-state pressure campaigns do not affect his decisions, though analysts remain split on whether the tactic builds his name recognition or exposes real vulnerabilities as his term nears its end.

A letter signed by 70 Latino officials urges Democratic Governors Association chair and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear to direct campaign funds toward Gina Hinojosa's bid for Texas governor, warning that a failure to invest could cost Beshear Latino support in a future presidential run. The letter cites Texas's large Latino electorate and concerns about Republican gains with Latino voters in the last election cycle.

The DGA has so far not spent money on advertising in Texas, instead prioritizing races in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin, which the organization apparently views as more competitive. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards left office in the 1990s, when the state was far less reliably Republican. Whether Hinojosa can replicate Richards's appeal, particularly among suburban women, remains an open question. The dispute highlights an internal Democratic debate over where to allocate limited resources ahead of upcoming gubernatorial contests, and whether Texas represents a genuine opportunity or a distraction from more winnable races.

The Republican National Committee has confirmed South Carolina will keep its "first in the South" status for the 2028 presidential primary, voting fourth overall after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. The decision, approved at an RNC midterm convention in Dallas, preserves an early-state order that has held for roughly 40 years. An exact date hasn't been set, but the contest will likely fall in mid-to-late February, with the full calendar expected by next summer, according to state GOP Chairman Drew McKissick.

South Carolina's Republican primary has been a strong bellwether, with its winner capturing the GOP nomination in every cycle since 1980 except 2012. Trump won the state decisively in 2024. With Democrats set to open their own 2028 calendar in South Carolina on January 22, and Trump term-limited out of the race, the state is shaping up as an early battleground for both parties, already drawing visits from prospective candidates and allies.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved South Carolina's Senate race to "lean Republican" from "likely Republican" and Mississippi's to "likely Republican" from "solid Republican," citing candidate quality and Democrats' broader push into red territory. Democrats are backing the shift with money: the Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad buy in Mississippi attacking incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, boosting Democratic nominee Scott Colom. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews is challenging appointed Sen. Darline Graham. Both races remain steep climbs for Democrats given past Republican margins, but the ratings change adds two more contests to the list Republicans must defend amid economic headwinds ahead of the midterms.

California's Democratic presidential primary is set for March 3, Super Tuesday, but the state's outcome will likely hinge on results from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, which vote earlier. Kamala Harris's exit from the race last week has fueled speculation about who benefits, but strategists note she had only modest California support (7-8% in late-2019 polling), with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren leading, followed by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg. Analysts expect California voters and donors to wait and see how candidates perform elsewhere before committing, since mail voting begins February 3, the same day as the Iowa caucuses.

Democratic strategists point out California has a history of backing eventual losers, including Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008. Michael Bloomberg, skipping the four early states, is banking on a stumble by frontrunners to gain traction on Super Tuesday. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who endorsed Harris, is being courted by rival campaigns but isn't expected to endorse soon. Harris's network of California donors and fundraisers is now considered up for grabs among the remaining candidates.

The U.S. Justice Department sent Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar a litigation-hold letter confirming he is under investigation and demanding his office preserve records tied to the 2024 election. The notice came three weeks after a federal court dismissed the DOJ's lawsuit seeking Nevada's unredacted voter registration database, and just before the statutory 22-month preservation period under the Civil Rights Act of 1960 was set to expire. The DOJ had originally requested sensitive voter data, including Social Security numbers and driver's license numbers, which Nevada law bars from disclosure; a judge ruled the government failed to justify the demand.

Aguilar said his office is already preserving the records and complying with the letter's legal requirements, while accusing the administration of trying to intimidate state election officials ahead of the 2026 midterms. His office separately disclosed receiving seven DOJ subpoenas over voter information in recent months, though it's unclear if they relate to the investigation described in the letter. The DOJ has not detailed the scope of any case against Aguilar.

Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford has appealed to the state Supreme Court to revive criminal charges against six Republicans accused in the 2020 "fake electors" scheme. A Clark County District Court judge dismissed the case in August, ruling prosecutors withheld exculpatory evidence from the grand jury and failed to show "fraudulent intent." The defendants—Michael McDonald, Jesse Law, James DeGraffenreid, Durward Hindle III, Shawn Meehan and Eileen Rice—had faced forgery charges for submitting a certificate falsely declaring Donald Trump the winner of Nevada in 2020. Trump pardoned them federally last year, but that pardon does not cover state charges. Ford, now running for governor against incumbent Joe Lombardo, says he expects the high court to side with his office.

Luis Alberto Osorio of Elko, Nevada, pleaded guilty to straw purchasing of firearms, trafficking in firearms, harboring aliens, and conspiracy to launder money, the Department of Justice announced. Between April 2020 and September 2025, Osorio conspired with co-defendants to buy 140 firearms, including large-caliber and long-range weapons, along with magazines and ammunition, on behalf of individuals tied to drug trafficking organizations in Mexico.

Osorio also admitted to harboring people unlawfully in the U.S. to employ them at a Nevada mining company. Officials from HSI, the DEA, and the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Nevada framed the case as part of broader efforts to disrupt firearms trafficking networks that supply cartels and fuel cross-border violence. The investigation involved a multi-agency Department of Homeland Security task force, including the FBI, ATF, IRS-CI, and local Las Vegas police. Osorio faces a statutory maximum of 70 years in prison, with sentencing scheduled for February 11, 2027.

Arizona has filed a motion to intervene in Nevada's lawsuit challenging a Trump administration plan for major water cutbacks on the Colorado River. Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke said the mandatory cuts "would devastate Arizona's economy." Nevada sued in August, arguing the plan could severely shrink its allotment and harm Las Vegas and surrounding areas. Arizona relies on the river for about 36% of its water, much of it delivered via the Central Arizona Project canal system, which has lower-priority water rights and faces earlier cuts. The expanding legal fight could reach the U.S. Supreme Court, complicating efforts by seven western states to manage the shrinking river's supply.