Wisconsin Governor Race 2026: Which Party Wins

Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley launched a statewide tour blaming Republican rival Tom Tiffany for record-high diesel prices in Wisconsin, visiting a Kewaunee County farm with U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Farmer Clark Riemer described 2025 as his worst farming year in 35 years, citing soaring fuel and fertilizer costs tied to geopolitical instability, including U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran that disrupted fertilizer pricing.

Crowley criticized Tiffany's House votes against resolutions to end the Iran conflict, arguing the ongoing war has driven up fuel costs and hurt farmers. Tiffany countered by attacking Crowley's record on taxes and budget shortfalls as Milwaukee County executive, framing his own platform around tax cuts to ease affordability pressures.

Wisconsin diesel prices reached $6.56 per gallon, worsened by refinery outages in Illinois and Indiana and Russian export bans following Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Both candidates support repealing the state's minimum markup law on gasoline, though industry representatives dispute claims that repeal would meaningfully lower prices, noting crude oil costs are the primary driver of pump prices.

Wisconsin's open governor's race is shaping up as one of the tightest contests of the midterms, pitting Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley against U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a longtime Trump ally who has recently distanced himself from the president on Iran policy and AI data centers. Polling, including a Marquette University Law School survey, shows the race roughly even despite Trump's low approval ratings nationally. Tiffany, backed by three billionaire megadonors, has outspent Crowley roughly $53 million to $35 million and has attacked him on crime and immigration, including a Milwaukee County inmate tablet program Crowley recently curtailed. Crowley, who narrowly won a chaotic Democratic primary over democratic socialist Francesca Hong, is trying to tie Tiffany to Trump, tariffs, and gas prices, while Democratic leaders including Gov. Tony Evers, Hong, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, and Kamala Harris rally behind him. Crowley would be Wisconsin's first Black governor. The race, open for the first time in 16 years, could also affect control of the Legislature.

Wisconsin's projected budget surplus has climbed to about $3 billion, up from roughly $2.5 billion projected in January, after state revenue for fiscal year 2026 came in higher than expected. The Department of Revenue reported a 3.4% increase in tax collections, reaching about $23.1 billion, though the figures remain preliminary pending review by the State Controller's Office ahead of an October 15 fiscal report.

The larger surplus comes months after a bipartisan deal combining taxpayer rebates, property tax relief, and school funding failed in the state Senate. With voters set to choose a governor and Legislature in November, the surplus has become a campaign flashpoint. Republican candidate Tom Tiffany wants to return the full surplus to taxpayers, while Democratic candidate David Crowley favors targeted relief and long-term investments in schools and services. Polling shows voters divided on the issue, with a slim majority favoring spending on services over full rebates, though it's unclear how heavily the surplus will weigh on ballots this fall.

North Carolina's Republican-majority State Board of Elections approved new mail-in voting restrictions on Sept. 4, hours before counties began mailing absentee ballots for the 2026 midterms. The 3-2 party-line vote requires officials to disqualify ballots returned in unsealed envelopes, reversing a prior policy that treated such errors as non-material, and limits who may submit a ballot on a voter's behalf to close relatives or legal guardians. Gov. Josh Stein criticized the move as a last-minute "circumvention" of the law that could disenfranchise voters. Other states, including Wisconsin, have since begun mailing their own 2026 absentee ballots, with local clerks directing voters to online portals to request, track, and confirm receipt of ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The rollout continues amid a broader legal fight over President Trump's executive order targeting mail-in voting nationwide, which requires federal approval of ballot envelope designs and voter list submissions. A federal judge has extended an order blocking USPS enforcement of the directive through the November elections, and the Trump administration has again appealed to the Supreme Court to lift the injunction. North Carolina, the first state to send out 2026 absentee ballots, voluntarily submitted its envelope design for federal review while still challenging the order's constitutionality. The absentee request deadline in North Carolina is Oct. 20.

With roughly a month until Wisconsin's election, Democratic candidate David Crowley is drawing criticism, including from some supporters, for spending limited time campaigning directly within the state. Crowley recently traveled to California for a fundraiser headlined by Kamala Harris and actor Sean Penn, and made two trips to Washington, D.C. this month seeking financial support from national Democrats. Republican opponent Tom Tiffany has significantly outraised and outspent Crowley, according to fundraising reports.

Crowley re-entered the race over the summer after initially dropping out, with Democrats citing concerns that a different candidate could lose to Tiffany in November. Critics note that Crowley has held comparatively few in-state campaign events, including rallies or town halls in Madison, while Tiffany has been touring Wisconsin broadly, holding events in cities including Milwaukee. The dynamic has drawn comparisons to Harris's 2024 presidential campaign, when questions were raised about limited outreach in some traditionally Democratic areas before her loss. The race is viewed as a competitive contest that could factor into broader midterm turnout and party strategy debates.

Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said during a debate that private election funding dubbed "Zuckerbucks" — grants from a Mark Zuckerberg-backed nonprofit that helped Wisconsin communities run elections during the pandemic — was a key reason he objected to certifying the state's 2020 results and backed Trump's bid to disqualify absentee ballots from Milwaukee and Dane counties. Democratic opponent David Crowley called the explanation inadequate, noting Tiffany alleged no actual fraud, and questioned whether Tiffany could be trusted to certify 2028 results. Tiffany pledged he would certify the 2028 election regardless of outcome. Wisconsin voters later banned private election grant funding via constitutional amendment.

U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said in a debate that private election grants funded by Mark Zuckerberg — dubbed "Zuckerbucks" by critics — drove his support for Trump's efforts to overturn Wisconsin's 2020 results. Tiffany also cited Milwaukee and Dane County clerks allowing "indefinitely confined" voters to skip photo ID requirements. Over 200 Wisconsin communities received roughly $10 million from the Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life during the pandemic; voters later banned such private election funding via a 2024 constitutional amendment. Democratic opponent David Crowley argued Tiffany's explanation was inadequate and questioned his trustworthiness to certify 2028 results, though Tiffany pledged he would certify regardless of outcome.

In a Wisconsin governor's race debate, Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany said his 2020 objections to certifying Wisconsin's election results stemmed from concerns over election funding from Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg, often called "Zuckerbucks." Tiffany pointed to grants from the Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life, which sent about $10 million to more than 200 Wisconsin communities during the pandemic, and to Milwaukee and Dane county guidance letting voters claim "indefinitely confined" status to get absentee ballots without photo ID. Democratic opponent David Crowley argued Tiffany identified no actual fraud and questioned whether he would certify the 2028 results; Tiffany said he would, "regardless of who the winner is."

U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said during a debate that his 2020 objection to certifying Wisconsin's presidential election results stemmed from private election-administration grants funded by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, dubbed "Zuckerbucks" by critics. More than 200 Wisconsin communities received about $10 million from the Zuckerberg-backed Center for Tech and Civic Life during the pandemic. Tiffany also cited Milwaukee and Dane county clerks allowing "indefinitely confined" voters to skip photo ID for absentee ballots. He backed Trump's failed bid to disqualify 220,000 absentee ballots and voted against counting Pennsylvania and Arizona electoral votes. Democratic opponent David Crowley questioned whether Tiffany can be trusted to certify 2028 results; Tiffany said he would.

Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.), the Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor, repeated his call for the U.S. to wind down military operations against Iran, saying "it's time to move on" now that Iran's nuclear facilities and military have been "degraded" and much of its navy destroyed. Pressed by a local reporter on why he has not backed any of the three war powers resolutions the House has passed urging the Trump administration to end the conflict, Tiffany said the decision ultimately rests with President Trump. He did not vote on the most recent resolution, which passed last week with support from seven Republicans, and made similar comments favoring an end to the war back in May.

The conflict has now continued for more than six months. Tiffany faces Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) in a tight November race; a recent poll showed Crowley ahead by five points. Crowley criticized Tiffany's remarks, saying he had multiple chances to act but instead backed Trump's approach.