Washington’s 3rd Congressional District House Race Winner
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, anchored by Vancouver and southwest Washington, heads back to the polls in 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has been a closely fought battleground in recent cycles, flipping between parties and drawing national attention. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete, with the general election result determining who represents the district in Congress.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of swing districts like WA-03, making this race consequential for national policy direction. Southwest Washington’s mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the district a bellwether for broader political shifts. The outcome could shape the balance of power in Congress and influence legislative priorities for years.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate contest into a binary question: which party ultimately holds the seat. Separate contracts on individual candidates let traders isolate primary dynamics from the general election outcome. Together, these contracts capture how party control and personal candidate strength interact in a historically competitive district.
Related terms
Total Volume
$2m
Kalshi $309.6k · Polymarket $1.7m
Leading Market
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Kalshi 90% · Polymarket 90%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Volume
$1.1m
Kalshi $90.7k · Polymarket $964.9k
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocratic Party | 90.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
90.0¢ | 5% |
|
| John BraunRepublican Party | 11.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
12.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Workplace safety record at Braun’s company becomes flashpoint in WA 3rd District race
PN Team • 1 week ago
In Washington's competitive 3rd Congressional District race, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and challenger John Braun have clashed over the safety record of Braun Northwest, the family-owned emergency vehicle manufacturer Braun leads. The dispute centers on two 2024 incidents: a worker's death, ruled accidental by inspectors, and injuries to teenage apprentices that led to citations and fines for child labor and safety violations. Gluesenkamp Perez's ads accuse Braun of inadequate response and oversight; Braun disputes the characterizations and says the company has invested heavily in safety. The deceased worker's son has publicly criticized Braun, while an injured former apprentice has defended the company. Braun Northwest was cited again this week for a separate injury.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John Braun Braun's company faces allegations of a worker death, child labor violations, and repeated safety citations, though he disputes the characterizations.
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Gluesenkamp Perez is portrayed as actively holding her opponent accountable through campaign ads, a neutral-to-mildly favorable political tactic.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat being contested is mentioned only as context for the congressional race.
- Washington (state) Washington state is mentioned only as the location of the congressional district race.
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Congress
House GOP members skip party’s midterm convention as Jeffries weighs discipline for Democratic defectors
PN Team • 2 months ago
Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.
Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's presence is cited as a reason many Republicans are avoiding the convention, implying reputational friction within his party.
- Republican Party (United States) Many GOP candidates are avoiding their own party's convention, suggesting internal discomfort and division ahead of midterms.
- Ted Cruz Cruz is mentioned attending as a 2028 hopeful, a positive visibility signal.
- John Thune Thune is noted as a top leader attending the convention, reflecting steady leadership engagement.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned amid internal discipline discussions over defectors, reflecting mild internal strain.
- Hakeem Jeffries Jeffries is portrayed as considering disciplinary action against his own members, a neutral-to-slightly-tense leadership moment.
- Dallas Dallas is mentioned as the neutral host city for the convention.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the setting for legislative activity without specific reputational framing.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced factually as part of the legislative context.
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Congress
Bipartisan Bill Seeks to Block Trump’s Russian Oil Import Deal
PN Team • 1 day ago
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA), with Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Don Bacon (R-NE), introduced the Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act to block President Trump's deal allowing Russian diesel and oil imports meant to ease U.S. gas prices. The bill would void the Treasury's Russian oil waiver, ban future waivers, and bar funding agreements that violate the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act. It also requires intelligence agencies to quickly notify Congress of disruptions to Ukraine's defense support, following Starlink service cutoffs.
Sponsors call the deal a violation of law and a boost to Russia's war funding. The White House defends it as lowering global diesel prices. Analysts note the import volumes are too small to meaningfully affect prices.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump His administration's Russian oil deal is criticized as a legal violation funding Russia's war.
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Lead sponsor of bipartisan bill portrayed as taking principled stand against Russian oil imports.
- United States House of Representatives House members shown taking bipartisan action against a controversial oil deal.
- United States Congress Portrayed as needing faster notification on disruptions, a procedural oversight role.
- Washington (state) Identified only as the home state of the bill's lead sponsor, a tangential mention.
- United States Central setting of a policy dispute over oil imports and gas prices, described factually.
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Elections
Third-Party Candidates Run Long-Shot Bids Across Utah’s House Races
PN Team • 13 hours ago
Third-party and unaffiliated candidates appear in all four of Utah's congressional districts this fall, though none qualified for official debates and none poll in double digits. Figures like unaffiliated candidates Robert Moesinger and Steven Burt, Libertarian Taylor Wright, Independent American Carlton Bowen and Constitution Party nominee Cassie Easley say they aren't running to win but to challenge the two-party system, push reforms like ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts, and engage disaffected young voters.
Historically, Utah's third-party candidates have drawn minimal support, averaging roughly 2% since 1914, with Evan McMullin a notable exception. Rising unaffiliated voter registration suggests some appetite for alternatives, but it remains unclear whether that will translate into votes for non-major-party candidates this cycle.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Referenced only as part of the two-party system candidates are challenging.
- Independent politician Described factually as a category multiple candidates belong to.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced only as part of the two-party system candidates are challenging.
- Utah Setting of the story, described factually with no reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives Context for the congressional races but not evaluated itself.
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Elections
Nunn, Trone Garriott clash over costs, health care in Iowa’s 3rd District race
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Republican Rep. Zach Nunn and Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott, a state senator, are facing off in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, one of the nation's most closely watched 2026 midterm races. In Des Moines Register candidate questionnaires, both named affordability as a top priority but offered sharply different diagnoses and fixes.
Trone Garriott blamed Nunn's votes for tariffs and Medicaid cuts for raising costs and threatening the Affordable Care Act, pledging to restore ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid reductions. Nunn pointed to tax cuts, a rural health care investment, and efforts to lower drug prices and gas prices as evidence of progress, while defending his support for tariffs targeting China and Canada. On immigration, both credited reduced border crossings but diverged on enforcement tactics and legal pathways. The two also split on the Iran war, with Trone Garriott criticizing the lack of a congressional war vote and rising fuel and fertilizer costs, while Nunn defended new war powers oversight and sanctions legislation. The general election is Nov. 3.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Iran Mentioned in connection with the Iran war debate and criticism over lack of a war vote.
- United States Congress Referenced in context of criticism over lack of a congressional war vote on Iran.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of Trone Garriott without additional characterization.
- Iowa Referenced as the state containing the 3rd Congressional District in question.
- Iowa Senate Referenced factually as the body in which Trone Garriott serves as state senator.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of Nunn without additional characterization.
- United States Referenced contextually as the nation holding the 2026 midterm elections.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced as the body both candidates are running for, factually noted.
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Elections
North Carolina early voting begins ahead of pivotal midterm elections
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Early voting opens Oct. 15 and runs through Oct. 31 in North Carolina, a key battleground in the 2025 midterms. The marquee race is the open U.S. Senate seat left by retiring Republican Thom Tillis, pitting Democrat and former Gov. Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley, the Trump-backed former RNC chair, with Green and Libertarian candidates also on the ballot. Democrats are targeting the seat as part of a broader push to flip the four seats needed for Senate control.
The ballot also includes competitive U.S. House races, including Charlotte-area districts held by Reps. Alma Adams, Tim Moore and Mark Harris, plus down-ballot contests for the N.C. Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, state legislature, and Mecklenburg County offices. Voters will also weigh in on constitutional amendments covering voter ID, income tax caps and property tax limits, along with Charlotte bond measures for transportation, housing and neighborhood improvements. Election Day is Nov. 3, with North Carolina's results seen as a bellwether for national party control in Washington.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Roy Cooper Cooper is portrayed neutrally to positively as a former governor running for a prominent Senate seat.
- North Carolina North Carolina is portrayed as a significant, closely-watched battleground state, a notable civic role.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as competitive and targeting Senate control, a neutral factual framing.
- Alma Adams Alma Adams is mentioned as holding a competitive Charlotte-area House district, a neutral factual note.
- Charlotte, North Carolina Charlotte is referenced regarding House districts and bond measures, factual and neutral.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned neutrally as backing Whatley's candidacy.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are mentioned neutrally as holding the retiring Senate seat and contesting races.
- Tim Moore (North Carolina politician) Tim Moore is mentioned factually as holding a competitive House district.
- United States House of Representatives The U.S. House is referenced regarding competitive races without evaluative framing.
- United States Senate The open U.S. Senate seat race is the central factual subject of the article.
- Washington (state) Washington is referenced as the seat of national party control that the election outcome may affect.
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Elections
2026 Georgia Congressional Elections: Full Candidate Field Set
PN Team • 5 days ago
All 14 of Georgia's U.S. House seats are up for election on Nov. 3, 2026, with major-party nominees now set in every district. Most incumbents, including Sanford Bishop, Brian Jack, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams, Lucy McBath, Rich McCormick, Austin Scott, Andrew Clyde and Rick Allen, face challengers, while District 13 features state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Air Force veteran Jonathan Chavez. Candidates include political organizers, veterans, business owners, a physician, a microbiologist and several first-time contenders.
For prediction markets, the races hinge on incumbency, district partisan lean and name recognition, with most seats considered safe for the incumbent party but a handful, such as Districts 1, 2 and 13, drawing closer scrutiny.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Brian Jack Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Central setting for the factual election overview, no reputational spin.
- Hank Johnson Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Lucy McBath Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Nikema Williams Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Rich McCormick Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Sanford Bishop Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- United States Congress Mentioned factually as the body these candidates seek to join.
- United States House of Representatives Neutral factual reference to the seats up for election.
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Elections
Colorado’s 3rd District candidates outline positions on cost of living, public lands, immigration
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Candidates for Colorado's 3rd Congressional District seat responded to a Denver Post questionnaire covering affordability, public lands, oversight of the Trump administration, energy leasing, and immigration. Democratic challenger (Romero Group CEO and Army veteran) emphasized repealing tariffs, expanding tax credits, protecting water and public lands, and banning congressional stock trading. Incumbent Rep. Jeff Hurd pointed to his record on extending health insurance premium tax credits, opposing broad tariffs, pushing for stock divestment rules, and securing release of Shoshone Water Rights funding, while backing expanded energy development on federal lands with environmental safeguards. Third-party candidate Cory Robertson called for ending federal money printing, releasing federal land to states, and dissolving ICE, among other libertarian-leaning positions. A fourth candidate, Clifton Brown, did not respond to the questionnaire.
The race highlights contrasts on tariffs, immigration enforcement, and energy leasing on public lands ahead of the midterms, with affordability and trust in Congress emerging as shared themes across candidates.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Incumbent Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd is portrayed factually with some favorable mentions of bipartisan achievements like tax credit extensions and water rights funding.
- Colorado Colorado is the neutral setting for this district race coverage.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic challenger's positions are described neutrally as part of a balanced candidate comparison.
- United States The U.S. is referenced only via the federal administration and policy context without specific reputational framing.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually regarding stock trading rules and trust issues without strong positive or negative framing.
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Elections
New Hampshire primary voters set fall matchups for open Senate and House seats
PN Team • 2 months ago
New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.
Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John E. Sununu Sununu is shown holding a wide lead with Trump's endorsement, a favorable portrayal of his campaign strength.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement of Sununu is portrayed as a boost to Sununu's campaign, reflecting positively on Trump's political influence.
- Israel Israel is mentioned in the context of controversy over arms sales and donor support affecting Pappas' campaign.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is the setting of the primary election, described factually as undergoing a normal electoral process.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's crowded primary fields are described factually without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's competitive primary races are reported neutrally.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the office being contested, with no reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat race is described factually without reputational implications for the institution.
- United States Senate The Senate seat and its national significance are discussed neutrally.
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Elections
Bouchard launches first general election ad in Michigan’s 10th District race
PN Team • 2 months ago
Republican U.S. House candidate Michael Bouchard released his first general election video ad, "Jump," in which the former Army paratrooper leaps from a plane while pledging to fight socialism if elected to represent Michigan's 10th District. The Rochester Hills candidate's campaign says the ad is part of a seven-figure television and social media push, funded entirely with campaign money, in a race political handicappers rate as a toss-up.
Bouchard will face Democratic nominee Christina Hines, a former Wayne County special victims prosecutor, in November. The winner succeeds GOP Rep. John James, who is running for Michigan governor instead of seeking reelection. The 10th District covers southern Macomb County and Rochester/Rochester Hills in Oakland County.
The ad is set to air during major sports broadcasts and prime programming, with some slots costing tens of thousands of dollars. Bouchard holds an early fundraising edge, reporting roughly $960,000 on hand versus Hines's approximately $160,000, though her campaign has yet to release its first ad.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Hines, the opposing candidate, in a factual context.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as Bouchard's party affiliation in a neutral factual context.
- Macomb County, Michigan Macomb County is mentioned factually as part of the district's geography.
- Michigan Michigan is mentioned factually as the state of the congressional race.
- Oakland County, Michigan Oakland County is mentioned factually as part of the district's geography.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat is the object of the race, mentioned factually.
- Wayne County, Michigan Wayne County is mentioned factually as Hines's prior prosecutorial jurisdiction.
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Washington’s 1st Congressional District: Who Wins the 2026 House Race
Leading:
98.5%
Suzan DelBene
Vol $16.1k
Washington’s 10th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
98%
Marilyn Strickland
Vol $67.8k
Washington’s 8th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
98.5%
Kim Schrier
Vol $10.2k
Washington’s 2nd District House Race 2026
Leading:
95.5%
Rick Larsen
Vol $16.3k
Who Will Win New York’s 3rd Congressional District House Seat
Leading:
90%
Tom Suozzi
Vol $171.3k
New York’s 22nd District House Race 2026
Leading:
95.5%
John Mannion
Vol $23.9k
Arizona’s 6th District House Race 2026
Leading:
88.5%
Joanna Mendak
Vol $162.8k
Wisconsin’s 1st District House Seat: Who Will Win?
Leading:
49.5%
Mitchell Berman
Vol $2.7k