Who Will Win New York’s 3rd Congressional District House Seat
New York’s 3rd Congressional District, spanning parts of Long Island and northeastern Queens, is once again a closely contested House race. The seat has flipped between parties in recent cycles and remains a bellwether for suburban voting patterns in the New York City metro area. Both major parties are expected to invest heavily in the district as the 2026 midterms approach.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a handful of swing districts like NY-03, making the outcome here a proxy for broader national political shifts. Local issues such as cost of living, public safety, and suburban demographic change will shape voter turnout. The result could signal how competitive districts nationwide are trending heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is straightforward: which party, or which specific candidate, ultimately secures the seat. Separate contracts isolate party control from individual candidate outcomes, letting traders express views on primary dynamics as well as the general election. This structure captures both the horse-race uncertainty of a swing district and the shifting political mood shaping suburban New York contests.
Related terms
Total Volume
$471.1k
Kalshi $279.8k · Polymarket $191.2k
Leading Market
Tom Suozzi
Kalshi 91%
Tom Suozzi Volume
$171.2k
Kalshi $171.2k
Tom Suozzi 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom SuozziDemocratic Party | 90.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Tom Suozzi on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Thomas SuozziDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 90.0¢ | 5% | , trade Thomas Suozzi on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Michael J. LiPetri JrRepublican Party | — | — | — | 11.0¢ | 5% | , trade Michael J. LiPetri Jr on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Mike LiPetriRepublican Party | 11.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mike LiPetri on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom SuozziDemocratic Party | $171,216.78 | No market | |
| Thomas SuozziDemocratic Party | $128,686.62 | No market | |
| Michael J. LiPetri JrRepublican Party | $62,543.54 | No market | |
| Mike LiPetriRepublican Party | $108,620.31 | No market |