Dallas

President Trump traveled to Corpus Christi and Lubbock, Texas, to boost Ken Paxton's Senate bid against Democrat James Talarico, part of a final midterm push through traditionally Republican states. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in 32 years, but Talarico has gained traction amid Paxton's legal troubles. Elon Musk has poured significant money into stopping Talarico, a point Democrats are using to highlight wealthy influence in politics, echoing a parallel fight in the governor's race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa. Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined the trip, fueling speculation about his 2028 ambitions, while Vance and Trump also focus on tight races in Michigan and Alaska.

Texas voters head to the polls with Republicans defending longtime dominance amid Democratic hopes fueled by opposition to President Trump. The marquee race pits Democratic state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, with control implications for Trump's final two years. Gov. Greg Abbott faces an unexpectedly close challenge from state Rep. Gina Hinojosa despite a fundraising edge. Down-ballot, polling shows tight margins for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and a Railroad Commission seat. Democrats must flip 14 Texas House seats and four Senate seats for majorities. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. Early voting runs through October 30.

Polling and interviews across Texas point to a significant erosion of Latino support for President Trump since his 2024 gains, driven by frustration over high prices, gas costs, and aggressive ICE enforcement that has rattled South Texas communities and economies. Strategists describe the shift as a rebuke of Republicans rather than genuine enthusiasm for Democrats, who still carry a damaged brand with many Latino voters. The trend could shape Texas's competitive U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, as well as newly redrawn majority-Hispanic congressional districts. Analysts expect Latino support for Democrats to partially rebound toward 2018 levels, but caution that voters remain persuadable and increasingly judge candidates individually rather than by party.

With early voting underway in Texas through Oct. 30 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Axios readers across Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio shared their emotions heading into the vote. More than 200 responded, mostly Democrats, who described feeling "cautiously hopeful" or "cautiously excited" about competitive statewide races, with some expressing optimism that Texas could turn more Democratic amid visible grassroots organizing. A smaller group of Republican respondents voiced frustration with both parties and skepticism of polling, while some called for political change. Many respondents, regardless of party, said they were simply exhausted by the volume of campaign ads, texts and signage this cycle.

Early voting opened Monday in Texas ahead of the Nov. 3 election, running through Oct. 30. Reader responses gathered from Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, mostly from Democrats, reflected a mix of hope and wariness about the state's political trajectory, with several citing excitement over candidates while cautioning against being "burned before" by past disappointments. Even some Republican respondents acknowledged a desire for change after decades of GOP control in the state. The sentiment underscores competitive statewide and down-ballot races being watched closely for signs of shifting political dynamics in traditionally red Texas, a factor relevant to broader election forecasting and prediction markets tracking state-level partisan trends.

Twelve U.S. House seats covering the Dallas-Fort Worth area are on the Nov. 3 midterm ballot, with early voting running Oct. 19-30. Most races feature Republican incumbents—Keith Self, Pat Fallon, Lance Gooden, Jake Ellzey, Craig Goldman, Ronny Jackson, Beth Van Duyne and Roger Williams—facing Democratic challengers, plus a Libertarian in District 26. Three open seats stand out: District 30, vacated by Jasmine Crockett after her Senate run; and Districts 32 and 33, left open by Julie Johnson and Marc Veasey, respectively, after mid-decade redistricting reshaped them from Democratic-leaning to Republican-favored territory. In District 33, Colin Allred faces Patrick David Gillespie. Results are expected after 7 p.m. on Election Day.