Washington’s 8th District House Race: Who Will Win

Serena Cruz, who previously served as Multnomah County Commissioner for District 2 (1999-2006) and later as the county's Chief Operating Officer (2021-24), is running to reclaim the District 2 seat on the Board of County Commissioners. Cruz, a strategic management consultant, holds degrees from Lewis & Clark College, Harvard's Kennedy School, and UC Berkeley Law.

Her platform centers on addressing homelessness through aligned housing, treatment, and behavioral health services, citing her past work launching the multi-county Bridges to Housing initiative. She also prioritizes expanding Preschool for All, supporting family-wage jobs, and using County-funded projects like the Moda Center renovation to drive economic development. On the Preschool for All tax increase, she says she would have voted to delay it pending demonstrated need and stronger program accountability. Cruz points to her record managing a four-billion-dollar county budget through the pandemic and has secured endorsements from labor groups and community organizations including SEIU Oregon and APANO. She faces several other candidates for the seat, including Bruce Broussard, Herman Greene, and Nabil Zaghloul.

Washington state Rep. David Hackney, a Democrat, says he is frustrated with members of his own party after his "Whistleblower Protection Bill" (House Bill 2585) died in committee without a floor vote. The bill would have extended whistleblower protections and financial incentives for reporting fraud to all state government spending, mirroring laws already in place in 33 other states. Hackney said the committee chair, also a Democrat, never scheduled the bill for a vote, and he has secured commitments from House Speaker Laurie Jinkins and Gov. Bob Ferguson to back the measure next session.

Hackney also renewed criticism of Washington's "Keeping Families Together Act" following the fentanyl-poisoning death of a 1-year-old whose mother was later charged with reckless endangerment and unlawful firearm possession. He argued the 2021 law's higher removal standard keeps at-risk children in unsafe homes, and separately introduced legislation to classify fentanyl exposure of a child as a felony, matching existing methamphetamine exposure statutes.

A new report from Washington's state hospital and community health associations projects hospitals will lose nearly $6 billion in revenue through 2033 due to federal Medicaid cuts enacted under last year's Republican-backed tax and spending law. Sen. Maria Cantwell and healthcare leaders warned the roughly $900 billion in nationwide cuts will raise ER wait times, premiums and uncompensated care costs. About 200,000 Washingtonians are expected to lose coverage by next year, partly due to new work requirements starting January 1 and the removal of coverage for refugees and asylees. Rural hospitals, including on the Olympic Peninsula, face the steepest losses, with clinics also bracing for major reimbursement shortfalls and reduced patient visits.

Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson has unveiled a "new approach to gun violence" plan that calls on the state legislature to expand gun restrictions, including limits on firearms in "sensitive spaces," regulation near the city center, and changes to juvenile firearm possession and sentencing laws. Washington state law currently preempts most local gun regulation, meaning Seattle cannot enact carry bans on its own; any expanded restrictions would require state-level action. Existing rules already limit firearms in certain city-run stadiums and convention centers, with exceptions for concealed pistol license holders.

The proposal comes amid broader scrutiny of Wilson's nine-month tenure, marked by corporate departures, growing homeless encampments, recall efforts, and declining approval ratings. Critics note that a small number of repeat offenders are linked to a majority of the city's gun violence, and argue the plan does not address recidivism directly, instead focusing on legal gun owners. It remains unclear whether the state legislature will take up Wilson's proposed changes.

Two Washington residents, Melinda Jacobson and Dale Osterud, have filed a petition with King County Elections seeking to recall Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson, alleging she is "derelict in her duties" on public safety. The charges cite her handling of crime in the North Aurora, Chinatown-International District, and Belltown neighborhoods, the fatal Bite of Seattle shooting that killed three people, her decision to turn off CCTV cameras activated for the World Cup, and her firing of Police Chief Shon Barnes after a shooting at Seattle Center. Wilson's office called the petition without merit.

A King County Superior Court hearing is scheduled for Aug. 31 to determine whether the charges meet the legal threshold for a recall — malfeasance, misfeasance, or violation of an oath of office. Wilson and the petitioners may participate but are not required to; the prosecuting attorney's office and King County Elections remain neutral. If a judge approves, petitioners would have 180 days to gather more than 69,000 signatures — 25% of votes cast in the 2025 mayoral race — to force a special recall election. Past Washington recall efforts, including against Gov. Jay Inslee and former Mayor Jenny Durkan, have faced steep legal hurdles.

Brianne Bagby, former public records officer for the King County Regional Homelessness Authority, says executive staff cut off her access to the email system and had the CEO's chief of staff and communications director screen messages before she could review them — in at least one case allegedly pulling CEO Kelly Kinnison's emails from search results entirely. Bagby has since resigned. Emails reportedly show Kinnison approved labeling messages "deliberative" to shield them from public records requests. The agency spokesperson denies any effort to limit disclosure.

The allegations follow a forensic audit this spring that found the authority could not account for $13 million and faced a roughly $45 million deficit, with auditors unable to rule out fraud. Purchase cards racked up $1.1 million over four years, and every sampled high-dollar transaction raised concerns. Some county and city officials called for shutting the agency down, but Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson and County Executive Girmay Zahilay instead opted to pull back contracts while keeping the agency running under the same leadership. This year's count found 18,365 homeless people in King County, up 9% from two years ago.

Newly released federal data, obtained via Freedom of Information Act litigation by the Deportation Data Project, shows ICE arrests reaching a three-year high across the country. In Washington state, arrests surged to roughly 700 in July, up sharply from about 230 in February. Nationally, monthly arrests climbed from about 10,800 in January 2025 to nearly 41,800 in July. San Diego's Area of Responsibility hit a record 1,952 arrests in July, nearly triple the same month a year earlier. Roughly 70% of those arrested in both Washington and San Diego since early 2025 had no criminal convictions, contradicting administration claims of targeting dangerous immigrants; convictions for violent crimes among those arrested have fallen below 4%.

High-profile cases—including a Padres coaching coordinator detained at an airport and the father of a deployed Navy sailor briefly held—have fueled scrutiny of tactics like airport and roadside stops. Leadership changes at DHS and ICE followed public backlash, with officials signaling a shift toward quieter enforcement. Some Washington detainees are being released with ankle monitors amid capacity constraints at Tacoma's detention center. The volatility remains relevant to prediction markets tracking deportation numbers and detention capacity.

With about four weeks until Election Day, Florida's 13th congressional district remains one of the cycle's most closely watched races. Recent polling from Fox News and Inside Elections shows the seat shifting from "likely Republican" to "leaning Republican," signaling a tighter contest than previously expected.

Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, who has held the seat since 2022, is campaigning on an anti-corruption record, citing her push to release Epstein-related files and efforts to ban congressional insider trading. Democratic challenger Leela Gray, a retired brigadier general, argues Luna's trading-ban proposal is incomplete and is calling for a broader ban on stock trading, prediction-market betting, and donor-linked investments across all three branches of government. Gray has accused Luna of conflicts of interest tied to a donor's oil company, while Luna has countered that Gray has downplayed her own financial ties to pharmaceutical and banking interests. Both campaigns deny the other's claims as voters prepare to decide the race.

Early voting opens Oct. 15 and runs through Oct. 31 in North Carolina, a key battleground in the 2025 midterms. The marquee race is the open U.S. Senate seat left by retiring Republican Thom Tillis, pitting Democrat and former Gov. Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley, the Trump-backed former RNC chair, with Green and Libertarian candidates also on the ballot. Democrats are targeting the seat as part of a broader push to flip the four seats needed for Senate control.

The ballot also includes competitive U.S. House races, including Charlotte-area districts held by Reps. Alma Adams, Tim Moore and Mark Harris, plus down-ballot contests for the N.C. Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, state legislature, and Mecklenburg County offices. Voters will also weigh in on constitutional amendments covering voter ID, income tax caps and property tax limits, along with Charlotte bond measures for transportation, housing and neighborhood improvements. Election Day is Nov. 3, with North Carolina's results seen as a bellwether for national party control in Washington.

Third-party and unaffiliated candidates appear in all four of Utah's congressional districts this fall, though none qualified for official debates and none poll in double digits. Figures like unaffiliated candidates Robert Moesinger and Steven Burt, Libertarian Taylor Wright, Independent American Carlton Bowen and Constitution Party nominee Cassie Easley say they aren't running to win but to challenge the two-party system, push reforms like ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts, and engage disaffected young voters.

Historically, Utah's third-party candidates have drawn minimal support, averaging roughly 2% since 1914, with Evan McMullin a notable exception. Rising unaffiliated voter registration suggests some appetite for alternatives, but it remains unclear whether that will translate into votes for non-major-party candidates this cycle.