New York’s 22nd District House Race 2026
New York’s 22nd Congressional District, centered on Syracuse and the surrounding Central New York region, is up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections. The seat has flipped between parties in recent cycles, making it a perennial battleground. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the district as part of the broader fight for U.S. House control.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a handful of swing districts like NY-22, where shifting suburban and rural voters can swing results narrowly. The outcome will shape representation for Central New York on issues from federal spending to local infrastructure. A competitive race here also signals broader national political trends heading into 2026.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party’s nominee ultimately wins the seat. Markets isolate partisan control as the tradeable outcome, rather than focusing on individual candidate names until primaries clarify the field. Traders are effectively weighing district-level partisan lean against national midterm momentum, treating NY-22 as a proxy for broader House battleground dynamics.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Electoral district -
New York (state) -
Democrat Party (epithet) -
Syracuse, New York -
Swing (seat) -
Central New York -
New York's 22nd congressional district -
John Mannion (American politician)
Total Volume
$52.3k
Kalshi $20.1k · Polymarket $32.1k
Leading Market
John Mannion
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 96%
John Mannion Volume
$30.1k
Kalshi $6.2k · Polymarket $23.9k
John Mannion 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi +0.10% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John MannionDemocratic Party | 96.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade John Mannion on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 96.0¢ | 5% | , trade John Mannion on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Kailee BullerRepublican Party | 3.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Kailee Buller on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Kailee Buller on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| John MannionDemocratic Party | $30,126.47 | ||
| Kailee BullerRepublican Party | $22,154.92 |