Wisconsin’s 1st District House Seat: Who Will Win?

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, to the DCCC's "red to blue" program targeting vulnerable GOP incumbents. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is betting that voter anger over the economy, health care costs and gas prices under President Trump can overcome Steil's fundraising edge and name recognition after eight years in office. Steil, who succeeded Paul Ryan in a district with deep manufacturing losses, has won all four of his races by at least 9 points and entered August with a large cash advantage over Berman.

The race illustrates broader national trends: Trump-aligned PACs have spent tens of millions on House ads since September, with the vast majority going toward defending districts Trump carried in 2024 rather than targeting Democratic-held seats, signaling Republicans are largely on defense this cycle. Democrats hope a strong enough "blue wave" could flip even well-funded, longtime incumbents like Steil, though party officials on both sides say an upset remains a steep climb for Berman.

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil since 2019, to the DCCC's "red to blue" target list, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate. Democrats hope voter anger over Trump's approval rating, healthcare costs, gas prices and tariffs could turn a modest "blue wave" into a bigger upset, though officials in both parties consider it a long shot given Steil's name recognition and fundraising edge.

Steil and allied groups have outspent Berman roughly 2-1, entering August with $6.3 million cash on hand versus about $152,000 for Berman. Nationally, Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have spent more than $84 million on House ads since September, with 96% concentrated in districts Trump carried in 2024 — a sign Republicans are playing defense but retain a financial cushion. Steil, seen as a possible 2028 Senate contender, has won his prior four races by at least 9 points. The district, anchored by Racine, Kenosha and Janesville, leans Republican but has grown more competitive under redrawn maps.

Democrats are targeting Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, adding it to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "red to blue" program as part of a broader effort to widen the House map ahead of the midterms. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is leaning on his working-class background and voter frustration over the economy, health care costs and gas prices to make the race competitive in a district Republicans have held for three decades, previously represented by Paul Ryan.

Steil, seeking a fifth term, has outraised and outspent Berman roughly 2-to-1 and enters with a large cash advantage. Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have poured tens of millions into House races nationally, with the vast majority going to districts Trump won in 2024, underscoring Republicans' largely defensive posture this cycle. Party officials on both sides acknowledge Berman faces long odds against Steil's name recognition, though Democrats hope a large enough anti-Trump wave could still flip the seat.

Democrats are targeting Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Steil's seat as part of a broader push to expand the House battlefield ahead of the midterms. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republicans for more than three decades, to its "red to blue" program in September, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate running on a working-class message and voter frustration over the economy, healthcare costs and tariffs.

Steil, a fifth-term incumbent and former aide to Paul Ryan, has significantly outraised Berman and enjoys strong name recognition, and Republicans and Democrats alike say beating him will be difficult despite the district growing more competitive under 2022 redistricting. Trump-aligned PACs have poured tens of millions into House ad spending nationally, overwhelmingly in Trump-won districts, underscoring Republicans' defensive posture this cycle even as they retain a financial edge. The race is seen as a bellwether for how large a Democratic wave might materialize in 2026.

Rebecca Cooke defeated Emily Berge in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, setting up a third consecutive matchup against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Cooke, who grew up on a dairy farm near Eau Claire and works as a waitress and small-business owner, narrowly lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than three percentage points after also losing the 2022 primary. She entered this year's primary with backing from the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program, while Berge campaigned as a local alternative skeptical of national party influence. Cooke holds a fundraising edge, having raised about $8.6 million to Van Orden's $7.5 million, though he retains nearly $3 million more cash on hand.

The western Wisconsin district, covering Eau Claire and La Crosse, has trended Republican in presidential races but is rated a toss-up, making it Democrats' top target in the state as they seek to retake the House majority in November. Cooke is campaigning on rural frustration over Trump administration policies, including tariffs that have hurt farm exports, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict, while Van Orden defends his record backing Trump's agenda. The race is part of a broader Wisconsin battleground that includes the 1st District, where nurse Mitchell Berman will challenge GOP Rep. Bryan Steil, and the solid-red 7th District, won by Sean Duffy's son-in-law Michael Alfonso in the Republican primary.

Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation returned to Washington for a busy week before the Labor Day recess, with midterm politics dominating the agenda. Republican Reps. Tom Tiffany, Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil attended a White House Rose Garden dinner for vulnerable GOP members, where President Trump pledged to campaign in battleground districts, singling out Tiffany's gubernatorial run against Democrat David Crowley. Van Orden faces a competitive re-election contest against Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Separately, Van Orden sponsored a bill loosening D.C. motorcycle helmet requirements to mirror Wisconsin law, drawing criticism from Rep. Mark Pocan.

The House also passed a Republican-led resolution denouncing socialism, tied to a contested voter ID measure, splitting largely along party lines. Lawmakers cleared a government funding extension to December 11, signed by Trump, avoiding a pre-election shutdown. The delegation also pressed Trump for a disaster declaration after July storms, while Wisconsin election officials warned that Trump's mail-in ballot executive order would be difficult to implement before November.

With roughly a month until Wisconsin's election, Democratic candidate David Crowley is drawing criticism, including from some supporters, for spending limited time campaigning directly within the state. Crowley recently traveled to California for a fundraiser headlined by Kamala Harris and actor Sean Penn, and made two trips to Washington, D.C. this month seeking financial support from national Democrats. Republican opponent Tom Tiffany has significantly outraised and outspent Crowley, according to fundraising reports.

Crowley re-entered the race over the summer after initially dropping out, with Democrats citing concerns that a different candidate could lose to Tiffany in November. Critics note that Crowley has held comparatively few in-state campaign events, including rallies or town halls in Madison, while Tiffany has been touring Wisconsin broadly, holding events in cities including Milwaukee. The dynamic has drawn comparisons to Harris's 2024 presidential campaign, when questions were raised about limited outreach in some traditionally Democratic areas before her loss. The race is viewed as a competitive contest that could factor into broader midterm turnout and party strategy debates.

Pennsylvania voters go to the polls on Nov. 3, 2026, in a general election that will help decide control of Congress and the state's next governor. Voter registration closed Oct. 19, and mail-in ballot requests are due by Oct. 27; polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.

The marquee race pits Democratic incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, with Libertarian Ken Krawchuk also on the ballot. All Pennsylvania House seats and half the state Senate are up for election. Closely watched U.S. House contests include the 7th District, where Democrat Bob Brooks challenges Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie, and the 1st District, where Republican Brian Fitzpatrick faces Democrat Bob Harvie in perennially competitive Bucks County.

In Virginia's 1st Congressional District, Democratic prosecutor Shannon Taylor is challenging longtime Republican Rep. Rob Wittman with an anti-corruption message, accusing him of enriching himself through stock trades in companies he helps regulate. Wittman denies wrongdoing, says his portfolio is managed by outside advisers and reflects inheritances, has backed legislation limiting stock trading, and calls Taylor "a liar." The district, unrepresented by a Democrat since the 1970s, backed Trump by about 5 points in 2024 but went for Gov. Abigail Spanberger by nearly 3 points in 2025, making it a top Democratic flip target. Wittman has outraised Taylor roughly two-to-one, though outside groups have spent nearly $5 million attacking him on her behalf. Wittman, who has never won by fewer than 10 points, has deep local ties and Trump's endorsement, while Taylor has pledged to support a stock-trading ban, term limits, and a lobbying ban for former members of Congress.

The race reflects a broader anti-corruption theme emerging nationally this midterm cycle, with similar stock-trading and ethics attacks surfacing in North Carolina, New Jersey, and Virginia's neighboring 2nd District, where Rep. Jen Kiggans faces Democrat Elaine Luria. Polling shows voters are more likely to associate corruption with Republicans, giving Democrats an opening to tie incumbents to affordability frustrations and Trump-era controversies.

Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) drew scrutiny after a combative Tuesday debate in Cambridge, Maryland, that included clashes with both an audience member and a reporter. During the debate, Harris told a laughing audience member she was "rude" after she interrupted his remarks blaming Democratic environmental regulations for rising diesel prices amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, prompting the moderator to ask both candidates' supporters to remain polite and respectful for the rest of the event.

After the debate, Harris accused Baltimore Banner reporter Pamela Wood of illegally recording him and called for an officer to intervene, citing Maryland's two-party consent law. Wood noted Harris had invited reporters to question him post-debate with cameras visibly rolling, meaning no reasonable expectation of privacy applied, since the law protects only private conversations, not public statements made to visible press.

Democratic opponent Dan Schwartz, who called for civility during the debate, criticized Harris's conduct as out of touch. Harris, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, is seeking a ninth term representing Maryland's 1st Congressional District.