Washington’s 1st Congressional District: Who Wins the 2026 House Race

A new report from Washington's state hospital and community health associations projects hospitals will lose nearly $6 billion in revenue through 2033 due to federal Medicaid cuts enacted under last year's Republican-backed tax and spending law. Sen. Maria Cantwell and healthcare leaders warned the roughly $900 billion in nationwide cuts will raise ER wait times, premiums and uncompensated care costs. About 200,000 Washingtonians are expected to lose coverage by next year, partly due to new work requirements starting January 1 and the removal of coverage for refugees and asylees. Rural hospitals, including on the Olympic Peninsula, face the steepest losses, with clinics also bracing for major reimbursement shortfalls and reduced patient visits.

Washington state Rep. David Hackney, a Democrat, says he is frustrated with members of his own party after his "Whistleblower Protection Bill" (House Bill 2585) died in committee without a floor vote. The bill would have extended whistleblower protections and financial incentives for reporting fraud to all state government spending, mirroring laws already in place in 33 other states. Hackney said the committee chair, also a Democrat, never scheduled the bill for a vote, and he has secured commitments from House Speaker Laurie Jinkins and Gov. Bob Ferguson to back the measure next session.

Hackney also renewed criticism of Washington's "Keeping Families Together Act" following the fentanyl-poisoning death of a 1-year-old whose mother was later charged with reckless endangerment and unlawful firearm possession. He argued the 2021 law's higher removal standard keeps at-risk children in unsafe homes, and separately introduced legislation to classify fentanyl exposure of a child as a felony, matching existing methamphetamine exposure statutes.

Two Washington residents, Melinda Jacobson and Dale Osterud, have filed a petition with King County Elections seeking to recall Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson, alleging she is "derelict in her duties" on public safety. The charges cite her handling of crime in the North Aurora, Chinatown-International District, and Belltown neighborhoods, the fatal Bite of Seattle shooting that killed three people, her decision to turn off CCTV cameras activated for the World Cup, and her firing of Police Chief Shon Barnes after a shooting at Seattle Center. Wilson's office called the petition without merit.

A King County Superior Court hearing is scheduled for Aug. 31 to determine whether the charges meet the legal threshold for a recall — malfeasance, misfeasance, or violation of an oath of office. Wilson and the petitioners may participate but are not required to; the prosecuting attorney's office and King County Elections remain neutral. If a judge approves, petitioners would have 180 days to gather more than 69,000 signatures — 25% of votes cast in the 2025 mayoral race — to force a special recall election. Past Washington recall efforts, including against Gov. Jay Inslee and former Mayor Jenny Durkan, have faced steep legal hurdles.

New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.

Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.

In Virginia's 1st Congressional District, Democratic prosecutor Shannon Taylor is challenging longtime Republican Rep. Rob Wittman with an anti-corruption message, accusing him of enriching himself through stock trades in companies he helps regulate. Wittman denies wrongdoing, says his portfolio is managed by outside advisers and reflects inheritances, has backed legislation limiting stock trading, and calls Taylor "a liar." The district, unrepresented by a Democrat since the 1970s, backed Trump by about 5 points in 2024 but went for Gov. Abigail Spanberger by nearly 3 points in 2025, making it a top Democratic flip target. Wittman has outraised Taylor roughly two-to-one, though outside groups have spent nearly $5 million attacking him on her behalf. Wittman, who has never won by fewer than 10 points, has deep local ties and Trump's endorsement, while Taylor has pledged to support a stock-trading ban, term limits, and a lobbying ban for former members of Congress.

The race reflects a broader anti-corruption theme emerging nationally this midterm cycle, with similar stock-trading and ethics attacks surfacing in North Carolina, New Jersey, and Virginia's neighboring 2nd District, where Rep. Jen Kiggans faces Democrat Elaine Luria. Polling shows voters are more likely to associate corruption with Republicans, giving Democrats an opening to tie incumbents to affordability frustrations and Trump-era controversies.

Third-party and unaffiliated candidates appear in all four of Utah's congressional districts this fall, though none qualified for official debates and none poll in double digits. Figures like unaffiliated candidates Robert Moesinger and Steven Burt, Libertarian Taylor Wright, Independent American Carlton Bowen and Constitution Party nominee Cassie Easley say they aren't running to win but to challenge the two-party system, push reforms like ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts, and engage disaffected young voters.

Historically, Utah's third-party candidates have drawn minimal support, averaging roughly 2% since 1914, with Evan McMullin a notable exception. Rising unaffiliated voter registration suggests some appetite for alternatives, but it remains unclear whether that will translate into votes for non-major-party candidates this cycle.

All 14 of Georgia's U.S. House seats are up for election on Nov. 3, 2026, with major-party nominees now set in every district. Most incumbents, including Sanford Bishop, Brian Jack, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams, Lucy McBath, Rich McCormick, Austin Scott, Andrew Clyde and Rick Allen, face challengers, while District 13 features state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Air Force veteran Jonathan Chavez. Candidates include political organizers, veterans, business owners, a physician, a microbiologist and several first-time contenders.

For prediction markets, the races hinge on incumbency, district partisan lean and name recognition, with most seats considered safe for the incumbent party but a handful, such as Districts 1, 2 and 13, drawing closer scrutiny.

A closely watched race in Montana's 1st congressional district has become a test of whether economic populism or culture-war messaging resonates more with voters. Democrat Sam Forstag, a wildland firefighter and former ACLU lobbyist, has focused his campaign on housing affordability and cost-of-living frustrations, while Republican Aaron Flint, a former conservative radio host, has leaned into attacks portraying Forstag as a "radical" on gender and sexual orientation issues. President Trump campaigned in the state for Flint this week, underscoring the race's national profile.

Polling shows the contest within a few points either way, and the Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." A heated debate this week saw Flint brand Forstag "Phony Forstag" over his past LGBTQ advocacy work, while Forstag kept his focus on housing costs, private equity's role in the rental market, and wage stagnation. Montana Democrats argue the state's independent streak favors pocketbook messaging over national identity politics, making the race a bellwether for broader midterm strategy debates.

Candidates running for Colorado's 1st Congressional District responded to a Denver Post questionnaire covering cost of living, energy policy, congressional oversight of the Trump administration, and immigration. Responses revealed sharp divides: some candidates called for Medicare for All, a moratorium on new fossil fuel leasing on federal lands, a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and stronger congressional oversight of executive power, spending, and military actions. Others backed the Trump administration's agenda, supporting expanded oil and gas extraction on public lands, cooperation between local jurisdictions and federal immigration enforcement, and opposition to "sanctuary" policies.

A libertarian-leaning candidate called for auditing the Federal Reserve, ending corporate bailouts, returning land-use decisions to state control, and reclaiming congressional war powers, while criticizing both major parties for enabling executive overreach. A physician-candidate emphasized healthcare affordability, housing supply increases, protection of public lands for recreation and conservation, and a secure border paired with fast-tracked legal status for long-term residents. One candidate did not respond to the questionnaire.