John Thune

Texas' open U.S. Senate race has narrowed to a close contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, with Libertarian Ted Brown also on the ballot. The seat is being vacated by John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. Polls show the race within the margin of error, giving Talarico a slight edge as Democrats seek their first statewide Texas win since 1994.

Paxton, attorney general since 2015 and a longtime conservative legal combatant against federal policy, has backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Senate GOP leadership but did not respond to candidate questionnaires. Talarico, serving his fourth House term, has set state fundraising records and drawn endorsements from labor and civil rights groups. Brown, a longtime Libertarian activist, rounds out the field.

Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. The Senate race shares the ballot with Texas' gubernatorial contest between Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. With the Senate split 53-47 in Republicans' favor, a Democratic upset in Texas would ease their path toward a majority, making the race a closely watched national bellwether.

The Senate adjourned for a five-week recess until after the midterm elections, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing confidence Democrats will retake the majority, citing strong candidates and a favorable political climate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans still expect to hold their majority, though likely narrower, given the map favors states Trump carried previously. Democratic strategists remain split between targeting flippable states like Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa versus reach states such as Mississippi and Florida. Separately, Cook Political Report shifted its Florida and Texas governor's races toward Democrats, now rating both Lean Republican rather than safer categories, citing Trump's weak approval ratings and a difficult midterm environment for the GOP, though Republicans remain favored in both pricey, traditionally red states.

Other developments: a bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal faces resistance in the House, where Democrats say they'd rather wait until after the election to negotiate from a stronger position. House Judiciary's Jamie Raskin asked federal watchdogs to probe taxpayer-funded Trump administration TV ads ahead of the midterms. Schumer also said he'll push AI safety legislation next year, with some Republican support, while Third Way unveiled a Supreme Court reform platform featuring 18-year term limits and an ethics code, aiming to shape Democratic discourse through 2028.

Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.

Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear reiterated Sunday on CBS News's "Face the Nation" that he has "heard absolutely nothing back" from Sen. Mitch McConnell, more than two months into the senator's absence. Beshear said he wishes McConnell good health but called the Republican-controlled Senate unaccountable, saying McConnell "absolutely refuses" to address the public directly even briefly, and faulted Senate Majority Leader John Thune for deferring to McConnell's office rather than ensuring senators have the capacity to serve.

McConnell, 84, has not cast a Senate vote since June 11 following a fall and hospitalization at his Capitol Hill home in mid-June. He later disclosed a brief loss of consciousness and pneumonia, moved to a rehab facility, and was discharged to recover at home on Aug. 6, with no timeline for returning to work. His office says he has no fractures, concussion, heart attack, or stroke and continues physical therapy while engaging on Senate business. Some Senate Republicans, including Sen. Roger Marshall, have expressed confidence McConnell will return before his term ends; he is not seeking reelection. The Senate returns from recess Sept. 14.

A unanimous three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld Texas's 2021 election law requiring mail-in voters to provide an ID or Social Security number, reversing a lower court injunction sought by voting and disability rights groups. Writing for the panel, Judge Andrew Oldham said most plaintiffs lacked standing and criticized the district court for repeatedly obstructing the law, while declaring that "mail-in ballots are prone to fraud" and that mail voting "jeopardizes election integrity and democracy itself." The court found none of the named voters faced a "substantial risk" of disenfranchisement, noting they had since learned to comply. The law, Senate Bill 1, also requires those assisting mail voters to disclose compensation and sign anti-coercion oaths. Attorney General Ken Paxton, now running for U.S. Senate, hailed the ruling as a win for election integrity.

The decision arrives amid a broader national push by Trump and congressional Republicans for stricter voter ID and citizenship-verification rules, which Democrats oppose as voter suppression. Prediction markets are watching how this ruling and related litigation shape the odds of federal voter ID legislation and further court challenges before the 2026 midterms.