Iowa Senate

Iowa's 2026 midterm races are diverging sharply. In the open governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by wide margins across every poll since the summer primaries, including surveys from YouGov, Marist, Emerson, CNN/SSRS, Suffolk and the New York Times/Siena. The Senate race to replace retiring Republican Joni Ernst is far tighter, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson trading narrow leads across the same polls after two debates focused on tariffs, immigration and the Iran war. Analysts cite Sand's stronger name recognition from two statewide auditor wins and Hinson's incumbency advantage as representative to explain the split. Iowa last elected a Democratic senator in 2008 and a Democratic governor in 2006.

Republican Rep. Zach Nunn and Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott, a state senator, are facing off in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, one of the nation's most closely watched 2026 midterm races. In Des Moines Register candidate questionnaires, both named affordability as a top priority but offered sharply different diagnoses and fixes.

Trone Garriott blamed Nunn's votes for tariffs and Medicaid cuts for raising costs and threatening the Affordable Care Act, pledging to restore ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid reductions. Nunn pointed to tax cuts, a rural health care investment, and efforts to lower drug prices and gas prices as evidence of progress, while defending his support for tariffs targeting China and Canada. On immigration, both credited reduced border crossings but diverged on enforcement tactics and legal pathways. The two also split on the Iran war, with Trone Garriott criticizing the lack of a congressional war vote and rising fuel and fertilizer costs, while Nunn defended new war powers oversight and sanctions legislation. The general election is Nov. 3.

Iowa has become an unexpectedly competitive state heading into the midterms, with contested races for Senate, Governor, and multiple House seats. In the Senate contest, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, who has outperformed past Democratic candidates and earned an endorsement from Barack Obama. Polling shows a tight race, but Hinson remains favored given the state's strong Republican lean. Analysts note that a Democratic win would require a favorable environment, a strong candidate, and a weak GOP nominee — conditions only partially met so far.

Democrats appear stronger in the governor's race, where Rob Sand, a proven statewide winner, faces Republican Zach Lahn, whose residency and spending choices have drawn criticism. Sand's independent-leaning campaign style has helped him poll ahead. In the House, Iowa's 1st District leans toward a Democratic pickup, the 2nd is expected to hold for Republicans following Hinson's Senate run, and the 3rd, held by Zach Nunn, remains the most competitive due to its lighter Republican tilt.