Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District House Race 2026
Prediction markets are tracking the 2026 race for Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, a House seat that will be decided in next year’s midterm elections. Traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket have opened markets asking which party — or which specific candidate — will ultimately win the seat.
Why It Matters
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives often comes down to a small number of competitive districts, and Nebraska’s 1st District is one of the seats political analysts and bettors are watching closely heading into the 2026 midterms. The outcome here could factor into the broader battle for House control, making it a useful bellwether for national political sentiment.
Nebraska’s 1st District includes Lincoln and surrounding areas, and its competitiveness can shift depending on redistricting, incumbency, and broader midterm dynamics that typically favor the party out of power in the White House.
How the Markets Are Structured
Kalshi’s event, “NE-01 House winner?”, offers separate contracts for the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and “another party,” allowing traders to bet directly on partisan control of the seat. Polymarket’s companion event, “NE-01 House Election Winner,” breaks the race down further with individual markets for named candidates (labeled A through E in early listings) alongside party-line contracts, letting participants speculate on both the primary field and the general election winner.
As candidates officially file and campaigns take shape, these markets are expected to update to reflect confirmed nominees. Until then, they serve as an early gauge of how bettors view the balance of power in this Nebraska district.
No specific odds are cited here, as prediction market prices fluctuate frequently in response to news, polling, and campaign developments.
Related terms
Total Volume
$200.6k
Kalshi $180.9k · Polymarket $19.7k
Leading Market
Mike Flood
Kalshi 77% · Polymarket 77%
Mike Flood Volume
$46.4k
Kalshi $31.5k · Polymarket $15k
Mike Flood 24h Change
-4.00%
Kalshi -4.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike FloodRepublican Party | 77.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mike Flood on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 78.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mike Flood on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Chris BackemeyerDemocratic Party | 25.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Chris Backemeyer on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 24.0¢ | 5% | , trade Chris Backemeyer on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Austin AhlmanIndependent | 1.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Austin Ahlman on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike FloodRepublican Party | $46,443.57 | ||
| Chris BackemeyerDemocratic Party | $149,937.41 | ||
| Austin AhlmanIndependent | $4,179.17 | No market |