Ashley Hinson

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who once pledged to be President Trump's strongest Senate ally, is now striking a more independent tone as she faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa, a state Trump has carried three times. Hinson has continued to campaign alongside Trump and feature him in ads, but has also pledged to be "a thorn in his side" if he acts against Iowa's interests, a notable break from other Republican Senate candidates in red states.

The shift reflects signs of eroding enthusiasm for Trump among some of his own supporters ahead of the midterm election, adding uncertainty to a race in a traditionally reliable Republican state.

The Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Ashley Hinson in the race for Iowa's open Senate seat, with president Aaron Lehman citing damage from tariff policy and rising diesel, fertilizer and pesticide costs. Lehman also criticized the shifting schedule for a Trump rally supporting Hinson, which was reported off and then back on before planned Sunday appearances in Iowa and Kansas. Hinson has Trump's and the Iowa Farm Bureau's backing. The contest to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst is rated a tossup, with multiple recent polls showing Turek and Hinson within a few points of each other heading into Election Day.

President Trump rallied in Sioux City, Iowa, backing Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, Rep. Zach Nunn, and Rep. Randy Feenstra, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" and warning that Democratic gains would threaten GOP wins on tariffs, trade and farm policy. Hinson, running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a tight contest that could decide Senate control, has distanced herself from Trump on issues like his Russia diesel deal, the Iran war's economic fallout, and tariffs, even as she campaigned alongside him. Polls show the race within a few points either way, with early voting already underway in Iowa.

Iowa Senate Democratic nominee Josh Turek, pressed by NBC News on whether illegal immigrants should face deportation, said there should not be immediate deportation and instead backed a pathway to legal status contingent on background checks. He inaccurately cited Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Randy Feenstra as supporters of the Dignity Act; neither cosponsors the bill. The exchange intensifies immigration as a flashpoint in Turek's race against Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has criticized his record on ICE cooperation, immigrant benefits, and a campaign ad featuring sheriffs who limited detainer compliance. Critics call the Dignity Act amnesty; sponsor Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar disputes that characterization, calling it enforcement-first reform.

A new Political Polls survey shows Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) leading Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 47 percent to 44 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, with Turek narrowing the gap slightly since the prior week's polling. Hinson has emphasized border security and law enforcement in her campaign, while Turek has faced scrutiny over his record on DEI legislation and immigration-related statements.

In the governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand holds a wider lead over Republican Zach Lahn, 50 percent to 45 percent, with each candidate attacking the other's ideological positioning. Separate polling indicates most Iowa voters have settled on their midterm choices, though a meaningful share remain persuadable, a factor that could still shift outcomes in both contests.

Iowa's 2026 midterm races are diverging sharply. In the open governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by wide margins across every poll since the summer primaries, including surveys from YouGov, Marist, Emerson, CNN/SSRS, Suffolk and the New York Times/Siena. The Senate race to replace retiring Republican Joni Ernst is far tighter, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson trading narrow leads across the same polls after two debates focused on tariffs, immigration and the Iran war. Analysts cite Sand's stronger name recognition from two statewide auditor wins and Hinson's incumbency advantage as representative to explain the split. Iowa last elected a Democratic senator in 2008 and a Democratic governor in 2006.

Water quality and Iowa's elevated cancer rates — long politically sensitive topics given the state's reliance on agriculture — have become central issues in this year's midterm campaigns. Iowa has the second-highest rate of newly diagnosed cancers nationally, with prostate, breast and lung cancer cases rising faster than the U.S. average. State-funded University of Iowa research attributes much of the above-normal rates to demographic and behavioral factors, though researchers are now examining environmental contributors, including nitrates from fertilizer and animal waste that run off into rivers and drinking water supplies.

Candidates across the ballot — including U.S. Senate hopefuls Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson, gubernatorial contenders Rob Sand and Zach Lahn, and agriculture secretary rivals Chris Jones and incumbent Mike Naig — are addressing the issue, though they differ sharply on whether conservation practices should be mandatory. Gov. Kim Reynolds recently committed $320 million toward water infrastructure and conservation incentives, following lawn-watering restrictions and a prior failed lawsuit by Des Moines-area utilities against upstream counties over nitrate removal costs.