New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District: Who Will Win the House Seat
New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District will hold an election in 2026 to determine its next member of the U.S. House of Representatives. The seat has a history of swinging between parties and drawing competitive contests. Candidates from both major parties, along with potential third-party or independent contenders, are expected to vie for the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
NH-01 is one of the nation’s classic bellwether districts, often reflecting broader shifts in voter sentiment. Its outcome could influence the partisan balance of the House and serve as a signal for how competitive districts nationwide might break. Local economic conditions and national political trends will likely shape the race.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market distills a multi-candidate contest into a single question: which party, or specific candidate, ultimately secures the seat. By isolating individual candidates alongside broader party outcomes, it captures both the horse-race dynamics of a primary-heavy field and the general election’s partisan stakes. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, name recognition, and district-level partisan lean in one tradeable proposition.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Electoral district -
United States midterm election -
Democrat Party (epithet) -
New Hampshire -
New England -
Anti-incumbency -
Bellwether -
New Hampshire's 1st congressional district -
2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire
Total Volume
$77.5k
Kalshi $23.1k · Polymarket $54.4k
Leading Market
Stefany Shaheen
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 95%
Stefany Shaheen Volume
$20.2k
Kalshi $8.4k · Polymarket $11.8k
Stefany Shaheen 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefany ShaheenDemocratic Party | 96.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Stefany Shaheen on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 95.0¢ | 5% | , trade Stefany Shaheen on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Anthony DiLorenzoRepublican Party | 4.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Anthony DiLorenzo on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Anthony DiLorenzo on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefany ShaheenDemocratic Party | $20,207.11 | ||
| Anthony DiLorenzoRepublican Party | $57,301.32 |