Iowa’s 1st Congressional District House Race
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, covering southeastern Iowa including Davenport and Iowa City’s periphery, is holding a House election to determine its next representative. The seat has been competitive in recent cycles, swinging between parties as statewide political winds shifted. Candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties, along with potential third-party contenders, are vying for the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a handful of swing districts, and IA-01 has a history of flipping between parties. The outcome will shape the district’s representation on agriculture, trade, and manufacturing issues important to the region. A win here also carries symbolic weight for broader momentum heading into future election cycles.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are engaging with is straightforward: which party’s candidate ultimately wins the district. Markets isolate this single binary outcome, stripping away turnout modeling and campaign narrative to focus purely on the final result. Trading activity reflects shifting confidence as candidates, endorsements, and district dynamics evolve over the campaign.
Related terms
-
Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
United States midterm election -
Iowa -
Democrat Party (epithet) -
Swing (politics) -
Mariannette Miller-Meeks -
Christina Bohannan -
Davenport, Iowa -
Iowa City, Iowa -
Quad Cities -
Iowa's 1st congressional district
Total Volume
$4.4m
Kalshi $436.1k · Polymarket $3.9m
Leading Market
Christina Bohannan
Kalshi 90% · Polymarket 92%
Christina Bohannan Volume
$3.4m
Kalshi $276.6k · Polymarket $3.1m
Christina Bohannan 24h Change
-1.70%
Kalshi -1.70% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina BohannanDemocratic Party | 91.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Christina Bohannan on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 92.0¢ | 5% | , trade Christina Bohannan on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublican Party | 9.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mariannette Miller-Meeks on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 9.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mariannette Miller-Meeks on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Michael BridgfordIndependent | 2.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Michael Bridgford on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christina BohannanDemocratic Party | $3,354,747.52 | ||
| Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublican Party | $1,017,891.80 | ||
| Michael BridgfordIndependent | $4,812.00 | No market |