Rob Sand

Iowa, long reliable MAGA territory, is showing signs of competitiveness. Polls show Democratic state auditor Rob Sand consistently ahead of Republican Zack Lahn in the governor's race, despite outgoing Gov. Kim Reynolds winning by 19 points four years ago and Trump carrying the state by over 13 points. Grassroots activity has grown alongside the polling shift, including No Kings rallies in Dubuque and Des Moines and early-voting pushes. In the Senate race to replace retiring Joni Ernst, Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson faces organized opposition from Iowans for Decency, a bipartisan PAC formed by her former teachers and fellow alumni, ahead of Democrat Josh Turek's campaign.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. called Iowa's upcoming election "the most important" in the country at a Make America Healthy Again rally days before Election Day, endorsing Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn and congressional candidate Joe Mitchell. The event, organized by MAHA PAC, centered on "food freedom" and "medical freedom," with the PAC committing over $1.9 million to Lahn and six House candidates. Lahn backed removing COVID-19 vaccines from the market and regenerative farming to lower food costs. Democratic rivals Rob Sand and Lindsay for Iowa campaigns criticized the candidates' health care stances, citing Iowa's rising cancer rates and opposition to Medicaid and mRNA vaccine access.

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

A new Political Polls survey shows Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) leading Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 47 percent to 44 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, with Turek narrowing the gap slightly since the prior week's polling. Hinson has emphasized border security and law enforcement in her campaign, while Turek has faced scrutiny over his record on DEI legislation and immigration-related statements.

In the governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand holds a wider lead over Republican Zach Lahn, 50 percent to 45 percent, with each candidate attacking the other's ideological positioning. Separate polling indicates most Iowa voters have settled on their midterm choices, though a meaningful share remain persuadable, a factor that could still shift outcomes in both contests.

Iowa's 2026 midterm races are diverging sharply. In the open governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by wide margins across every poll since the summer primaries, including surveys from YouGov, Marist, Emerson, CNN/SSRS, Suffolk and the New York Times/Siena. The Senate race to replace retiring Republican Joni Ernst is far tighter, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson trading narrow leads across the same polls after two debates focused on tariffs, immigration and the Iran war. Analysts cite Sand's stronger name recognition from two statewide auditor wins and Hinson's incumbency advantage as representative to explain the split. Iowa last elected a Democratic senator in 2008 and a Democratic governor in 2006.

With midterms weeks away, potential 2028 contenders Andy Beshear and Donald Trump Jr. campaigned separately in Iowa college towns, underscoring the state's enduring role as a testing ground for presidential hopefuls even though Democrats have stripped it of its early-primary status. Beshear, stumping in Ames for gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, urged Democrats to drop "advocacy speak" in favor of plain talk, arguing that governor's races this cycle will determine whether Iowa is competitive for Democrats in 2028. Trump Jr., appearing at a packed Turning Point USA event in Iowa City, warned against a Democratic "dystopian communist hellhole," though some attendees said the tone clashed with the spirit of the late Charlie Kirk.

Both men remain long-shot contenders in early 2028 polling — Beshear trails in the Democratic field, while Trump Jr. lags behind Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio among Republicans. Vance also recently visited Iowa to support GOP candidates, signaling the invisible primary is already underway.

Iowa's Nov. 3 general election features marquee contests for governor and U.S. Senate, alongside numerous state, county and judicial races and a constitutional amendment. Early voting begins Oct. 14, when county auditors start mailing requested absentee ballots. Oct. 19 is the deadline for voter pre-registration and absentee ballot requests, while Nov. 2 is the last day for in-person absentee voting. Polls on Election Day are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and absentee ballots must be received by county auditors by 8 p.m. that day to count.

To register, voters must be Iowa residents, U.S. citizens and at least 18 by Election Day; those deemed mentally incompetent by a court or convicted felons without restored rights are ineligible. Registration can be completed online, by mail, or in person on Election Day with proof of identity and residence. Accepted IDs include an Iowa driver's license, passport or non-operator ID. Voters without ID can still cast a ballot if another registered voter attests to their identity, or file a provisional ballot pending later verification.