Which Will Be Closer: Kansas or Nebraska Senate Race

Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time this month. Challengers of the Republican-drawn 2025 map, including the group People Not Politicians, asked the Court to block a ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that had ordered the new map's revival for November's election. The Supreme Court had twice blocked use of that map, most recently in an unsigned, unexplained order on September 10 with no public dissent, after Justice Brett Kavanaugh earlier rejected an appeal from Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and sided with the Missouri Supreme Court. Despite that, an 8th Circuit panel—including two Trump appointees—upheld a federal judge's temporary order requiring use of the 2025 map, since it had already governed the August 4 primary. The Supreme Court gave the map's supporters until midday Wednesday to respond.

The dispute follows a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that a referendum challenging the 2025 map was valid, keeping the 2022 map in place pending a statewide vote. The new map, backed by President Trump and designed to help Republicans flip Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based seat and win seven of Missouri's eight House seats, has left over a million voters uncertain which district they belong to. Absentee and overseas ballots are already going out under the 2022 map, as the case continues to be the most protracted and complex of this cycle's mid-decade redistricting battles nationwide.

President Donald Trump traveled to Clarksville, Tennessee, Saturday to rally Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections, speaking at F&M Bank Arena four days before the state's early voting begins Oct. 14. The Republican National Committee framed the event as part of a broader push to help the GOP maintain its congressional majorities.

Analysts note the visit comes as several Senate races once considered safely Republican—including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—have become more competitive, even as Tennessee and Kentucky remain considered solidly in Trump's column. ABC News political director Rick Klein said voter frustration tied to the economy, gas and diesel prices, tariffs, and foreign policy issues like the Iran war could shape outcomes, giving voters a chance to judge two years of unified Republican control in Washington.

Local authorities warned of traffic disruptions, road closures, and limited parking near the arena. Tennessee's early voting runs through Oct. 29, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

Kansas, which has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, has become an unexpected battleground as megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton mounts a competitive challenge against Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. At least one recent poll showed Hamilton with a narrow lead, prompting race-rating shifts from safe Republican to competitive. His campaign taps into farm-belt frustration over tariffs and rising costs that has also unsettled GOP prospects in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

Hamilton, founder of the country's largest Methodist congregation, casts himself as a moderate and independent-minded Democrat, criticizing Trump-era policies on tariffs, health care, and immigration while promising a less partisan tone. Marshall and Republican surrogates, including Vice President JD Vance and Senator Ted Cruz, have attacked Hamilton's church and theology, drawing rebukes from Methodist clergy. Marshall also faces scrutiny over lawsuits against patients for unpaid medical bills. Trump's approval in the state has slipped, adding to signs of Republican vulnerability in a seat long considered secure.

Kansas House District 19, covering parts of Overland Park, Prairie Village and Leawood in Johnson County, will see a rematch of its 2024 race. Democratic incumbent Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who has held the seat since 2012 and switched parties from Republican to Democrat in 2018, faces Republican challenger Mark Hermes again after defeating him previously. A win would give Clayton a seventh term. Clayton's platform emphasizes government transparency, education funding, tax relief and reproductive access, while Hermes centers his campaign on judicial accountability, court reform and child welfare policy, including support for electing rather than appointing Kansas judges.

General elections are set for Nov. 3, with most polling locations open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, centered on Omaha and one of just eight districts nationally that backed Kamala Harris in 2024 while electing a Republican to the House, is shaping up as a marquee 2026 midterm contest following Rep. Don Bacon's retirement. Republican Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding, who has President Trump's endorsement and backing from House GOP leadership, faces Democratic activist Denise Powell, co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska, who has campaigned alongside potential 2028 Democratic hopefuls Pete Buttigieg and Rahm Emanuel.

Trump plans to headline a Republican midterm convention in Dallas and has been visiting contested districts to energize the GOP base despite low approval ratings. Democrats, meanwhile, are betting that anxiety over Medicare and affordability, plus backlash to Trump, can flip the historically Republican-held seat, building on a local "Blue Dot" movement. Nebraska has voted Democratic for president only once since 1964, but the district has split its electoral vote three of the last five cycles, making it a rare swing-district test of Trump's midterm influence.

With just over three weeks until Election Day, Kansas election officials are preparing for unusually high turnout in a midterm cycle, driven largely by a competitive U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. Pollsters have called the contest too close to call, prompting Johnson County — one of the state's largest and most populous counties — to plan for possible recount procedures, including deploying up to 300 poll workers under tight security and a five-day completion window.

Officials there say they're planning for turnout levels typically seen in presidential elections, citing heavy national media attention on the race. Johnson and Sedgwick counties together represent roughly 60-65% of Kansas's electorate. Marshall launched a six-day statewide bus tour, while Hamilton focused on voter registration efforts in Lawrence. The voter registration deadline falls just before early voting begins, which marks its 30th year in the state.

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.

Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is running for a second U.S. Senate term, facing Democratic challenger and pastor Adam Hamilton after winning his August primary. A former OB/GYN from Great Bend who delivered thousands of babies before serving in the U.S. House and defeating Barbara Bollier for Senate in 2020, Marshall sits on the Agriculture, Finance, HELP, and Budget committees and has backed legislation including the Laken Riley Act, HALT Fentanyl Act, and Natural Gas Tax Repeal Act. Marshall and Hamilton are set to hold their second debate Wednesday, Oct. 21, ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, with early voting beginning Oct. 27 and results certified by Dec. 1.

U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, the Kansas Republican facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in the Nov. 3 Senate election, is scheduled to speak at a Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce legislative forum on Oct. 16 at the Great Overland Station, with tickets ranging from $70 to $95. The event comes about three weeks before Election Day.

A separate Oct. 20 appearance planned at Zarda Bar-B-Q in Lenexa, part of a Johnson County Republicans luncheon, was relocated after a leaked flyer — which warned attendees not to share the event on social media for "congressional security protocols" — became public. Zarda's leadership said staff were unaware a senator would be speaking and stressed the restaurant is non-partisan. Johnson County Republicans did not respond to comment requests.

Marshall has not held a public town hall since March of last year, citing safety concerns, drawing criticism including a petition delivery earlier this year demanding he hold statewide town halls. He and Hamilton debated at the Kansas State Fair on Sept. 12.

Nexstar Media Group will air a live, multi-market televised debate between Kansas U.S. Senate candidates: Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. The debate, "Debate Night in Kansas," is scheduled for October 21 from 7 to 8 p.m. CT, originating from WDAF-TV FOX4 in Kansas City and moderated by FOX4's John Holt.

The broadcast will air live on four Nexstar stations serving Kansas — FOX4 (Kansas City), KSNF (Joplin, MO), KSNT (Topeka) and KSNW (Wichita) — with topics expected to include economic growth, infrastructure, and healthcare. The event will also stream on Nexstar's digital platforms, with excerpts airing nationally on NewsNation and The Hill. The debate offers voters a direct comparison ahead of the Kansas Senate race, a contest being watched for its potential implications on the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate.