Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026: Who Will Win

President Trump rallied in Sioux City, Iowa, backing Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, Rep. Zach Nunn, and Rep. Randy Feenstra, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" and warning that Democratic gains would threaten GOP wins on tariffs, trade and farm policy. Hinson, running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a tight contest that could decide Senate control, has distanced herself from Trump on issues like his Russia diesel deal, the Iran war's economic fallout, and tariffs, even as she campaigned alongside him. Polls show the race within a few points either way, with early voting already underway in Iowa.

Iowa Republicans, who have held a decade-long trifecta in the state alongside President Trump's rise, are voicing rare public anxiety ahead of the 2026 midterms. At a fundraiser honoring outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst, Sen. Chuck Grassley, 93, warned of a scenario where a Democratic governor could pick his Senate successor, underscoring how competitive Iowa has become. Conservative radio host Steve Deace reported that internal GOP polling shows the state trending roughly 10 points bluer than in 2024, endangering several U.S. House seats.

Rising gas and diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, a trade dispute with China hurting soybean farmers, and a shrinking first-quarter economy have squeezed Iowa voters, denting Trump's approval even in this deep-red state. Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor leading gubernatorial polling, is campaigning on anti-partisan themes against Republican Zach Lahn, while Josh Turek challenges Rep. Ashley Hinson for Senate. Cook Political Report now rates two of Iowa's four House seats as toss-ups and the governor's race as leaning Democratic, a marked shift for a state Trump carried by over 13 points in 2024.

Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana told an Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition banquet crowd in Des Moines that the roughly seven-month conflict with Iran is "the genesis" of current inflation, arguing that elevated oil prices have "affected the price of everything." He predicted the war would be "concluded within the next six months," which he said should bring oil prices and inflation down with it. Iowa gas prices have risen sharply over the past year, with diesel hitting a record high in the state.

Kennedy's remarks came as he campaigned for Iowa Republicans ahead of competitive 2026 midterm races, including Rep. Ashley Hinson's bid for the state's open Senate seat. His comments also highlight a growing split within the GOP: some House Republicans, including two Iowa members facing tough reelection races, recently broke with President Trump to support curbing his war powers over the Iran operation. The remarks underscore how the conflict's economic fallout is becoming a flashpoint in midterm campaigns, with both parties seizing on cost-of-living concerns tied to energy prices.

Nexstar Media Group has announced that its Iowa television stations will air a live debate between the two major-party candidates for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat: Republican nominee Ashley Hinson, currently a U.S. Representative, and Democratic nominee Josh Turek, a member of the Iowa House of Representatives.

The debate, "Debate Night in Iowa," is scheduled for Tuesday, October 13, from 9 to 10 p.m. CT, originating from WHO 13's studios in Des Moines. It will cover issues including immigration, education, health care, agriculture, and technology. The event will be simulcast across participating Nexstar stations statewide and streamed on their digital platforms, with excerpts airing nationally on NewsNation and The Hill.

The debate marks a key moment in one of the midterm cycle's closely watched Senate races, giving voters a direct comparison between the candidates ahead of the general election as prediction markets and pundits track the contest's trajectory.

Iowa Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson drew attention during a Wednesday Senate campaign debate against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek after pivoting a question about Social Security's solvency toward criticism of millennial savings habits. Hinson said millennials are "the worst group of savers in the country right now" and called for a broader national conversation about young people saving for retirement, alongside efforts to shore up Social Security.

Hinson said she would oppose cutting Social Security benefits and proposed a bipartisan commission to recommend solutions to Congress, while declining to rule out other unspecified changes. Turek countered by calling for removing the payroll tax cap so higher earners and large corporations contribute more, arguing it would meaningfully extend the program's solvency. Hinson dismissed that approach as simply raising taxes. The exchange comes as Hinson faces a competitive reelection race amid widespread voter pessimism about the economy and concern over Social Security's long-term future.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who once pledged to be President Trump's strongest Senate ally, is now striking a more independent tone as she faces a tougher-than-expected challenge from Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa, a state Trump has carried three times. Hinson has continued to campaign alongside Trump and feature him in ads, but has also pledged to be "a thorn in his side" if he acts against Iowa's interests, a notable break from other Republican Senate candidates in red states.

The shift reflects signs of eroding enthusiasm for Trump among some of his own supporters ahead of the midterm election, adding uncertainty to a race in a traditionally reliable Republican state.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst in a race that tests how firmly Iowa has shifted red. Hinson, who holds an endorsement from President Donald Trump, is emphasizing her willingness to work across the aisle even as she runs on her party's national brand. Turek, meanwhile, is seeking to show that Democrats can still compete statewide despite Iowa's Republican trend over the past decade.

With Election Day about six weeks away, the contest is emerging as one of the more competitive Senate races of the 2026 cycle, reflecting broader questions about whether traditionally purple-turned-red states like Iowa remain contestable for Democrats. The outcome could factor into the overall battle for Senate control and offers a test case for how candidates balance partisan loyalty with appeals to independent and crossover voters in a state with a complex political history.

Iowa, which has voted reliably Republican for over a decade and backed Donald Trump three times, is shaping up as an unexpectedly competitive battleground in the 2026 midterms. Democrats see real chances to flip the governorship, a Senate seat, and several House races, aided by a large bloc of independent voters and a state economy strained by tariffs on agricultural goods, rising diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, and rural hospital closures linked to Medicaid cuts. Polling shows a majority of Iowans disapprove of Trump and believe his policies have raised living costs.

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement opens a competitive Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, a former Paralympic gold medalist. In a recent debate, Hinson repeatedly attacked Turek's attendance record in the Iowa legislature, including missed votes on the state farm bill and rural health funding, and demanded he refund per diem payments; Turek countered by criticizing her lack of in-person town halls. In the governor's race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand is pitching an economic-populist message against Republican Zach Lahn, who has faced questions over his Iowa residency. Analysts note Iowa's history of razor-thin House margins, making it a key test of whether Democrats can reclaim congressional control.

A new Political Polls survey shows Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) leading Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 47 percent to 44 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, with Turek narrowing the gap slightly since the prior week's polling. Hinson has emphasized border security and law enforcement in her campaign, while Turek has faced scrutiny over his record on DEI legislation and immigration-related statements.

In the governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand holds a wider lead over Republican Zach Lahn, 50 percent to 45 percent, with each candidate attacking the other's ideological positioning. Separate polling indicates most Iowa voters have settled on their midterm choices, though a meaningful share remain persuadable, a factor that could still shift outcomes in both contests.