Iowa Senate Election Winner 2026

Iowa's 2026 midterm races are diverging sharply. In the open governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by wide margins across every poll since the summer primaries, including surveys from YouGov, Marist, Emerson, CNN/SSRS, Suffolk and the New York Times/Siena. The Senate race to replace retiring Republican Joni Ernst is far tighter, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson trading narrow leads across the same polls after two debates focused on tariffs, immigration and the Iran war. Analysts cite Sand's stronger name recognition from two statewide auditor wins and Hinson's incumbency advantage as representative to explain the split. Iowa last elected a Democratic senator in 2008 and a Democratic governor in 2006.

Iowa has become an unexpectedly competitive state heading into the midterms, with contested races for Senate, Governor, and multiple House seats. In the Senate contest, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, who has outperformed past Democratic candidates and earned an endorsement from Barack Obama. Polling shows a tight race, but Hinson remains favored given the state's strong Republican lean. Analysts note that a Democratic win would require a favorable environment, a strong candidate, and a weak GOP nominee — conditions only partially met so far.

Democrats appear stronger in the governor's race, where Rob Sand, a proven statewide winner, faces Republican Zach Lahn, whose residency and spending choices have drawn criticism. Sand's independent-leaning campaign style has helped him poll ahead. In the House, Iowa's 1st District leans toward a Democratic pickup, the 2nd is expected to hold for Republicans following Hinson's Senate run, and the 3rd, held by Zach Nunn, remains the most competitive due to its lighter Republican tilt.

Nexstar Media Group has announced that its Iowa television stations will air a live debate between the two major-party candidates for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat: Republican nominee Ashley Hinson, currently a U.S. Representative, and Democratic nominee Josh Turek, a member of the Iowa House of Representatives.

The debate, "Debate Night in Iowa," is scheduled for Tuesday, October 13, from 9 to 10 p.m. CT, originating from WHO 13's studios in Des Moines. It will cover issues including immigration, education, health care, agriculture, and technology. The event will be simulcast across participating Nexstar stations statewide and streamed on their digital platforms, with excerpts airing nationally on NewsNation and The Hill.

The debate marks a key moment in one of the midterm cycle's closely watched Senate races, giving voters a direct comparison between the candidates ahead of the general election as prediction markets and pundits track the contest's trajectory.

Iowa Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson drew attention during a Wednesday Senate campaign debate against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek after pivoting a question about Social Security's solvency toward criticism of millennial savings habits. Hinson said millennials are "the worst group of savers in the country right now" and called for a broader national conversation about young people saving for retirement, alongside efforts to shore up Social Security.

Hinson said she would oppose cutting Social Security benefits and proposed a bipartisan commission to recommend solutions to Congress, while declining to rule out other unspecified changes. Turek countered by calling for removing the payroll tax cap so higher earners and large corporations contribute more, arguing it would meaningfully extend the program's solvency. Hinson dismissed that approach as simply raising taxes. The exchange comes as Hinson faces a competitive reelection race amid widespread voter pessimism about the economy and concern over Social Security's long-term future.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst in a race that tests how firmly Iowa has shifted red. Hinson, who holds an endorsement from President Donald Trump, is emphasizing her willingness to work across the aisle even as she runs on her party's national brand. Turek, meanwhile, is seeking to show that Democrats can still compete statewide despite Iowa's Republican trend over the past decade.

With Election Day about six weeks away, the contest is emerging as one of the more competitive Senate races of the 2026 cycle, reflecting broader questions about whether traditionally purple-turned-red states like Iowa remain contestable for Democrats. The outcome could factor into the overall battle for Senate control and offers a test case for how candidates balance partisan loyalty with appeals to independent and crossover voters in a state with a complex political history.

A new Political Polls survey shows Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) leading Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 47 percent to 44 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, with Turek narrowing the gap slightly since the prior week's polling. Hinson has emphasized border security and law enforcement in her campaign, while Turek has faced scrutiny over his record on DEI legislation and immigration-related statements.

In the governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand holds a wider lead over Republican Zach Lahn, 50 percent to 45 percent, with each candidate attacking the other's ideological positioning. Separate polling indicates most Iowa voters have settled on their midterm choices, though a meaningful share remain persuadable, a factor that could still shift outcomes in both contests.

Republican Ashley Hinson is locked in a competitive Iowa U.S. Senate race against Democrat Josh Turek, and GOP strategists acknowledge she faces a delicate balancing act with Donald Trump. Hinson has sought to create modest distance from the president on select issues without openly breaking with him or risking backlash from his base, which remains influential in Iowa's Republican electorate.

The dynamic reflects broader concerns within the GOP about how closely Senate candidates in competitive states should align themselves with Trump heading into the midterms. Turek, the Democratic challenger, is positioning himself to capitalize on any erosion of Republican support tied to dissatisfaction with Trump-era policies or rhetoric. The race is being watched as a bellwether for how Republican incumbents and candidates elsewhere manage similar tensions between base loyalty and swing-voter appeal, with implications for control of the Senate.

President Trump rallied in Sioux City, Iowa, backing Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, Rep. Zach Nunn, and Rep. Randy Feenstra, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" and warning that Democratic gains would threaten GOP wins on tariffs, trade and farm policy. Hinson, running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a tight contest that could decide Senate control, has distanced herself from Trump on issues like his Russia diesel deal, the Iran war's economic fallout, and tariffs, even as she campaigned alongside him. Polls show the race within a few points either way, with early voting already underway in Iowa.

Iowa, which has voted reliably Republican for over a decade and backed Donald Trump three times, is shaping up as an unexpectedly competitive battleground in the 2026 midterms. Democrats see real chances to flip the governorship, a Senate seat, and several House races, aided by a large bloc of independent voters and a state economy strained by tariffs on agricultural goods, rising diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, and rural hospital closures linked to Medicaid cuts. Polling shows a majority of Iowans disapprove of Trump and believe his policies have raised living costs.

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement opens a competitive Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, a former Paralympic gold medalist. In a recent debate, Hinson repeatedly attacked Turek's attendance record in the Iowa legislature, including missed votes on the state farm bill and rural health funding, and demanded he refund per diem payments; Turek countered by criticizing her lack of in-person town halls. In the governor's race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand is pitching an economic-populist message against Republican Zach Lahn, who has faced questions over his Iowa residency. Analysts note Iowa's history of razor-thin House margins, making it a key test of whether Democrats can reclaim congressional control.

President Trump announced a $15 billion steel plant for Iowa during an Oval Office event Monday, joined by Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Senate nominee Ashley Hinson, both facing competitive November races. Trump touted the project's job creation as affordability remains a top concern for voters, and pledged to hold a midterm rally in the state.

Despite Trump's 2024 win in Iowa, recent Marist polling shows Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek leading Hinson and Democratic House candidate Christina Bohannon slightly ahead of Miller-Meeks. Trump dismissed the polls as "fake." Iowa Republicans have shown some distance from the administration, with Miller-Meeks and Rep. Zach Nunn among seven GOP lawmakers who voted with Democrats to limit Trump's war powers amid the Iran conflict. Hinson skipped a recent Vice President Vance visit to the state, citing a scheduling conflict, underscoring the delicate balance vulnerable Republicans are striking between embracing Trump's economic messaging and managing political risk ahead of the midterms.