Iowa Senate Race 2026: Winner

Iowa has become an unexpectedly competitive state heading into the midterms, with contested races for Senate, Governor, and multiple House seats. In the Senate contest, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, who has outperformed past Democratic candidates and earned an endorsement from Barack Obama. Polling shows a tight race, but Hinson remains favored given the state's strong Republican lean. Analysts note that a Democratic win would require a favorable environment, a strong candidate, and a weak GOP nominee — conditions only partially met so far.

Democrats appear stronger in the governor's race, where Rob Sand, a proven statewide winner, faces Republican Zach Lahn, whose residency and spending choices have drawn criticism. Sand's independent-leaning campaign style has helped him poll ahead. In the House, Iowa's 1st District leans toward a Democratic pickup, the 2nd is expected to hold for Republicans following Hinson's Senate run, and the 3rd, held by Zach Nunn, remains the most competitive due to its lighter Republican tilt.

President Trump rallied in Sioux City, Iowa, backing Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, Rep. Zach Nunn, and Rep. Randy Feenstra, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" and warning that Democratic gains would threaten GOP wins on tariffs, trade and farm policy. Hinson, running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a tight contest that could decide Senate control, has distanced herself from Trump on issues like his Russia diesel deal, the Iran war's economic fallout, and tariffs, even as she campaigned alongside him. Polls show the race within a few points either way, with early voting already underway in Iowa.

Iowa Republicans, who have held a decade-long trifecta in the state alongside President Trump's rise, are voicing rare public anxiety ahead of the 2026 midterms. At a fundraiser honoring outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst, Sen. Chuck Grassley, 93, warned of a scenario where a Democratic governor could pick his Senate successor, underscoring how competitive Iowa has become. Conservative radio host Steve Deace reported that internal GOP polling shows the state trending roughly 10 points bluer than in 2024, endangering several U.S. House seats.

Rising gas and diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, a trade dispute with China hurting soybean farmers, and a shrinking first-quarter economy have squeezed Iowa voters, denting Trump's approval even in this deep-red state. Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor leading gubernatorial polling, is campaigning on anti-partisan themes against Republican Zach Lahn, while Josh Turek challenges Rep. Ashley Hinson for Senate. Cook Political Report now rates two of Iowa's four House seats as toss-ups and the governor's race as leaning Democratic, a marked shift for a state Trump carried by over 13 points in 2024.

Iowa's 2026 midterm races are diverging sharply. In the open governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by wide margins across every poll since the summer primaries, including surveys from YouGov, Marist, Emerson, CNN/SSRS, Suffolk and the New York Times/Siena. The Senate race to replace retiring Republican Joni Ernst is far tighter, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson trading narrow leads across the same polls after two debates focused on tariffs, immigration and the Iran war. Analysts cite Sand's stronger name recognition from two statewide auditor wins and Hinson's incumbency advantage as representative to explain the split. Iowa last elected a Democratic senator in 2008 and a Democratic governor in 2006.

Nexstar Media Group has announced that its Iowa television stations will air a live debate between the two major-party candidates for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat: Republican nominee Ashley Hinson, currently a U.S. Representative, and Democratic nominee Josh Turek, a member of the Iowa House of Representatives.

The debate, "Debate Night in Iowa," is scheduled for Tuesday, October 13, from 9 to 10 p.m. CT, originating from WHO 13's studios in Des Moines. It will cover issues including immigration, education, health care, agriculture, and technology. The event will be simulcast across participating Nexstar stations statewide and streamed on their digital platforms, with excerpts airing nationally on NewsNation and The Hill.

The debate marks a key moment in one of the midterm cycle's closely watched Senate races, giving voters a direct comparison between the candidates ahead of the general election as prediction markets and pundits track the contest's trajectory.

Iowa Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson drew attention during a Wednesday Senate campaign debate against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek after pivoting a question about Social Security's solvency toward criticism of millennial savings habits. Hinson said millennials are "the worst group of savers in the country right now" and called for a broader national conversation about young people saving for retirement, alongside efforts to shore up Social Security.

Hinson said she would oppose cutting Social Security benefits and proposed a bipartisan commission to recommend solutions to Congress, while declining to rule out other unspecified changes. Turek countered by calling for removing the payroll tax cap so higher earners and large corporations contribute more, arguing it would meaningfully extend the program's solvency. Hinson dismissed that approach as simply raising taxes. The exchange comes as Hinson faces a competitive reelection race amid widespread voter pessimism about the economy and concern over Social Security's long-term future.

A focus group of Iowa independent voters found deep frustration with tariffs and their impact on farmers, cost of living, and water-quality-linked cancer concerns, posing risks for Republicans in the state's open Senate race. The seat, vacated by Joni Ernst, pits Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist and state legislator. Cook Political Report recently shifted Iowa from "leans Republican" to "toss-up," underscoring the race's volatility in a state Donald Trump won by more than 13 points in 2024. Most panelists leaned toward Turek, citing distrust of Hinson over tariffs and Medicare/Medicaid cuts, though several said they might revert to her to protect Trump's Senate majority.

Turek's own record is drawing fresh scrutiny. His legislative newsletter has offered illegal immigrants guidance on avoiding ICE detention, he backed an "easier pathway to citizenship," and he voted against restricting law enforcement cooperation with ICE and against several DEI-related bills, complicating his "common-sense moderate" branding. With Republicans holding a narrow Senate majority, an Iowa loss could pressure other GOP-held seats and reshape the fight for Senate control in the midterms.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst in a race that tests how firmly Iowa has shifted red. Hinson, who holds an endorsement from President Donald Trump, is emphasizing her willingness to work across the aisle even as she runs on her party's national brand. Turek, meanwhile, is seeking to show that Democrats can still compete statewide despite Iowa's Republican trend over the past decade.

With Election Day about six weeks away, the contest is emerging as one of the more competitive Senate races of the 2026 cycle, reflecting broader questions about whether traditionally purple-turned-red states like Iowa remain contestable for Democrats. The outcome could factor into the overall battle for Senate control and offers a test case for how candidates balance partisan loyalty with appeals to independent and crossover voters in a state with a complex political history.

A new Political Polls survey shows Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) leading Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 47 percent to 44 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, with Turek narrowing the gap slightly since the prior week's polling. Hinson has emphasized border security and law enforcement in her campaign, while Turek has faced scrutiny over his record on DEI legislation and immigration-related statements.

In the governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand holds a wider lead over Republican Zach Lahn, 50 percent to 45 percent, with each candidate attacking the other's ideological positioning. Separate polling indicates most Iowa voters have settled on their midterm choices, though a meaningful share remain persuadable, a factor that could still shift outcomes in both contests.