South Carolina Senate Race: Margin of Victory

The Senate adjourned for a five-week recess until after the midterm elections, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing confidence Democrats will retake the majority, citing strong candidates and a favorable political climate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans still expect to hold their majority, though likely narrower, given the map favors states Trump carried previously. Democratic strategists remain split between targeting flippable states like Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa versus reach states such as Mississippi and Florida. Separately, Cook Political Report shifted its Florida and Texas governor's races toward Democrats, now rating both Lean Republican rather than safer categories, citing Trump's weak approval ratings and a difficult midterm environment for the GOP, though Republicans remain favored in both pricey, traditionally red states.

Other developments: a bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal faces resistance in the House, where Democrats say they'd rather wait until after the election to negotiate from a stronger position. House Judiciary's Jamie Raskin asked federal watchdogs to probe taxpayer-funded Trump administration TV ads ahead of the midterms. Schumer also said he'll push AI safety legislation next year, with some Republican support, while Third Way unveiled a Supreme Court reform platform featuring 18-year term limits and an ethics code, aiming to shape Democratic discourse through 2028.

A Senate financial disclosure shows South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews earned more from gun-control advocacy work than from practicing medicine. The pediatrician was paid by Everytown for Gun Safety's action and support funds, where she served as a senior adviser, alongside income from Children's National Medical Center and paid speeches to pediatric organizations. Andrews resigned her hospital post in 2023 to pursue political advocacy and later launched a PAC before entering the race to challenge for the Senate seat long held by Lindsey Graham. Her campaign platform includes universal background checks and restrictions on certain firearms, and she has drawn support tied to Michael Bloomberg's gun-control network.

Three men U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace named as "predators" in a 2025 House floor speech — financier John Douglas Osborne, her ex-fiancé Brendan Patrick Bryant, and former soccer club owner Eric Bernard Bowman — were arrested Oct. 14 in connection with the alleged 2018 sexual assault of an intoxicated woman on Sullivan's Island, South Carolina. Osborne faces assault and criminal sexual conduct charges; Bryant is charged with voyeurism; Bowman is accused of voyeurism, obstructing justice and naming a sexual assault victim.

A fourth man Mace publicly branded a predator, Brian Musgrave, will not be charged. Ninth Circuit Solicitor Scarlett Wilson wrote to the State Law Enforcement Division that "not a scintilla of evidence" supports Mace's allegations against him, warning her credibility would be undermined if called as a trial witness. Two other prosecutors who reviewed the probe similarly called her claims baseless. A federal judge dismissed Musgrave's defamation suit against Mace in August 2025, citing congressional immunity under the Westfall Act. Musgrave's attorney says Mace has never apologized.

Ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 general election, early voting has already topped totals from the 2018 and 2022 midterms, with nearly 1.5 million ballots cast by Oct. 30 — about 907,000 in person and 580,000 by mail. Unlike past cycles, voters have shifted toward in-person early voting over mail-in ballots, which analysts attribute to convenience and distrust of postal delivery timelines. The race includes open contests for every statewide executive office plus U.S. Senate and congressional seats that could shift the balance of power in Washington.

Statewide, unaffiliated voters lead turnout, followed by registered Democrats and Republicans, though the partisan gap is narrow and varies by county. Early in-person voting ends Nov. 1, with all ballots due by 7:30 p.m. on Election Night.

Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been caught on leaked audio complaining that Washington operatives and party leaders, rather than himself, are controlling his campaign's messaging. "I've never been in a race where I felt less control," Paxton said at a fundraiser, adding frustration that decisions were coming "from DC." His campaign says he was referring to super PACs, which cannot legally coordinate with campaigns but have spent heavily on his behalf. A separate leaked recording had Paxton acknowledging his numbers dropped after a Trump-headlined GOP convention in Dallas.

The disclosures add to visible strain within Texas Republican ranks ahead of the November 3 election against Democrat James Talarico, with Senator John Cornyn among those reluctant to fully rally behind Paxton. Angela Paxton, the AG's estranged wife who filed for divorce in July 2025 citing adultery, has released a PAC-funded ad urging Republicans to back the full GOP ticket regardless of individual candidates. Polling shows Talarico with a narrow lead, and Republicans have poured tens of millions of dollars into defending the seat.

Republican Ashley Hinson is locked in a competitive Iowa U.S. Senate race against Democrat Josh Turek, and GOP strategists acknowledge she faces a delicate balancing act with Donald Trump. Hinson has sought to create modest distance from the president on select issues without openly breaking with him or risking backlash from his base, which remains influential in Iowa's Republican electorate.

The dynamic reflects broader concerns within the GOP about how closely Senate candidates in competitive states should align themselves with Trump heading into the midterms. Turek, the Democratic challenger, is positioning himself to capitalize on any erosion of Republican support tied to dissatisfaction with Trump-era policies or rhetoric. The race is being watched as a bellwether for how Republican incumbents and candidates elsewhere manage similar tensions between base loyalty and swing-voter appeal, with implications for control of the Senate.

Ohio Sen. Jon Husted addressed the Republican National Convention in Dallas, one of several speakers on the event's first night alongside House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso. The two-day convention, headlined by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, comes less than two months before the November midterms.

Husted centered his remarks on affordability, citing conversations with Ohioans he says have benefited from tax cuts signed into law last year, including provisions eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income. He pointed to workers in Cleveland, Findlay, and Dayton as examples of people using the savings to pay down debt, save for a home, or stay in their houses as they age.

Husted is running to keep his Senate seat against Democrat Sherrod Brown, the former senator who lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024 and is seeking a return to Washington. Brown has recently campaigned in the Cleveland and Canton areas. Election Day is November 3.

Alaska's record-breaking Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan has taken a new turn as the Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of results if anyone other than Sullivan wins. The DOJ argues a same-named candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., could confuse the outcome, though the ballot lists the senator's party and incumbent status. Peltola called the suit a "desperate attempt" to cling to power; election integrity advocates and Democratic leaders, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, condemned it as an unprecedented intervention. The lawsuit adds legal uncertainty to a contest already defined by record spending and viewed as pivotal to Senate control.

Peltola has outraised Sullivan roughly $32 million to $13 million since January, with outside groups adding over $80 million more, as early voting continues ahead of the ranked-choice general election.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is drawing renewed scrutiny after a Wall Street Journal report cited staff messages suggesting he has been reluctant to perform basic constituent services, including dismissing meeting requests from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and claiming illness to skip a meeting with paralyzed veterans before appearing on Fox News instead. The revelations add to existing tensions between Fetterman and the Democratic base over his hawkish support for Israel and frequent media criticism of his own party.

On Pod Save America, former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau criticized Fetterman's apparent neglect of constituent work but cautioned Democrats against pushing him too far, noting his voting record remains largely in line with the party, including opposition to nearly all Trump judicial nominees. Favreau warned that alienating Fetterman into a possible party switch could cost Democrats a future Senate majority and control over a pivotal Supreme Court confirmation. Fetterman is not up for reelection until 2028.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear reiterated Sunday on CBS News's "Face the Nation" that he has "heard absolutely nothing back" from Sen. Mitch McConnell, more than two months into the senator's absence. Beshear said he wishes McConnell good health but called the Republican-controlled Senate unaccountable, saying McConnell "absolutely refuses" to address the public directly even briefly, and faulted Senate Majority Leader John Thune for deferring to McConnell's office rather than ensuring senators have the capacity to serve.

McConnell, 84, has not cast a Senate vote since June 11 following a fall and hospitalization at his Capitol Hill home in mid-June. He later disclosed a brief loss of consciousness and pneumonia, moved to a rehab facility, and was discharged to recover at home on Aug. 6, with no timeline for returning to work. His office says he has no fractures, concussion, heart attack, or stroke and continues physical therapy while engaging on Senate business. Some Senate Republicans, including Sen. Roger Marshall, have expressed confidence McConnell will return before his term ends; he is not seeking reelection. The Senate returns from recess Sept. 14.