South Carolina Senate Race: Who Will Win

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock drew on his history as senior pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church during an Oct. 13 stop in Columbia, South Carolina, telling Democrats and clergy they could not afford to lose the "fight between hope and despair." He criticized Republican cuts to food stamps and Medicaid eligibility, invoked civil rights history, and urged support for Senate candidate Annie Andrews.

Warnock plans to return to South Carolina this weekend to campaign with Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms and early voting. His visits to South Carolina, along with earlier stops in New Hampshire and Nevada — the early presidential primary states — have renewed speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. Warnock downplayed the talk, saying he is focused on 2026 and retaking a Senate majority. Other Democrats eyeing national profiles, including Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, have also recently visited the early-voting state.

South Carolina voters headed to the polls on Aug. 25 in a Republican runoff to determine who will hold the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster after her brother's passing, faced Rep. Ralph Norman, a 7th District congressman known for clashing with House leadership. Neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the Aug. 11 primary, with Graham taking about 33 percent and Norman about 24 percent, triggering the runoff.

President Donald Trump endorsed Graham and campaigned for her in Myrtle Beach, framing the race as important to Republican midterm prospects. Graham drew criticism after saying "national security is not my thing" during an Aug. 18 debate, prompting rebukes from Norman and former Gov. Nikki Haley, though Trump defended her. Third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham, while fourth-place finisher Mark Sanford, a Trump critic, backed Norman. The winner is heavily favored in the general election against Democrat Andrews in the deep-red state.

Sen. Darline Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52% to 48% in South Carolina's Republican runoff for the Senate seat held by her brother Lindsey Graham for 23 years before his death in July. Gov. Henry McMaster had appointed her to fill the seat temporarily, and President Trump endorsed her bid for a full term, holding a tele-rally and headlining a Myrtle Beach rally while directing more than $800,000 from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., toward her campaign. Norman, a five-term congressman who largely self-funded his campaign and drew roughly $700,000 in outside spending tied to Nikki Haley, conceded but noted lingering bitterness among his supporters over Trump's involvement. Graham had weathered criticism after admitting during an August debate she was "not that informed on national security," shifting her campaign's focus to domestic issues and her brother's legacy. She now advances to face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November 3 general election for the seat, considered a safe Republican hold.

The result, alongside a narrow Trump-backed win in Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff, reinforces the president's continued sway in GOP primaries despite recent Trump-endorsed losses elsewhere, including Wyoming and Florida.

South Carolina Republicans returned to the polls Tuesday to pick a nominee for the Senate seat long held by the late Lindsey Graham, who died in July after winning renomination in June. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to fill her brother's term and backed by President Trump and Sen. Tim Scott, faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff after neither cleared a majority in the Aug. 11 primary; third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the fall.

In Georgia's 13th Congressional District near Atlanta, Democrats Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, daughter of late Rep. David Scott, competed in a runoff to serve the remainder of Scott's term after topping a five-candidate field in July. Neither is seeking the full term beginning in 2027; that contest will pit Democratic state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. Both races drew attention as tests of turnout and party strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, now 70 days off.

Gray Media, South Carolina's largest television ownership group, is requiring candidates in this fall's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate debates to sign contracts barring them from joining rival broadcasters' debates without Gray's written consent. The clause, confirmed by multiple campaign sources, could limit other outlets' ability to host their own televised debates before the Nov. 3 general election.

Gubernatorial nominees Alan Wilson (R) and Jermaine Johnson (D) have tentatively set an Oct. 6 debate with Gray station WIS-TV, Gray's sixth debate broadcast since April. A Senate debate between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews remains under negotiation. Andrews' campaign said it signed Gray's pledge but has also accepted invitations from other stations, including SCETV and Nexstar- and Hearst-owned outlets, raising questions about how the exclusivity clause applies to debate clips and other coverage.

The dispute follows Gray's earlier partnership with the state GOP on primary debates and comes amid broader competition between Gray, Nexstar, and other networks for control of political debate coverage nationally.

The South Carolina Republican Party filed a federal lawsuit on July 8 seeking partisan voter registration and the power to bar voters not registered as Republicans from participating in GOP primaries. Party Chairman Drew McKissick said the move followed the stalling of two closed-primary bills in the General Assembly. On July 29, Veterans for All Voters and The Chamberlain Network filed a motion to intervene, defending the current system that lets any eligible voter participate in taxpayer-funded primaries without party registration.

A Starboard Communications survey found 54 percent of Republican primary voters support keeping open primaries versus 39 percent favoring closed ones, with support spanning the party's coalition. Critics, including veterans' advocates, argue closed primaries would disenfranchise the roughly 195,000 South Carolina veterans who identify as independents, and would concentrate power among party leaders and donors. The case is pending in federal court.

South Carolina's open-primary system is being challenged in federal court after the S.C. Republican Party filed suit on July 8 seeking partisan voter registration and the power to bar non-Republicans from voting in GOP primaries. Party Chairman Drew McKissick says litigation became necessary after two closed-primary bills stalled in the General Assembly.

Opposition is mounting. A Starboard Communications survey found 54% of Republican primary voters prefer keeping the current open system, versus 39% favoring closed primaries, with support spanning the party's coalition. On July 29, Veterans for All Voters and The Chamberlain Network moved to intervene, arguing the lawsuit would disenfranchise many of South Carolina's roughly 390,000 veterans, more than half of whom identify as independents. Critics, including retired Army Col. Christopher Himsl, argue closed primaries would hand more power to party leaders and donors, deepen polarization, and push candidates toward their parties' extremes. The case's outcome could reshape how South Carolinians participate in future primary elections.

Rep. Ralph Norman said he will keep his pledge to vote for Sen. Darline Graham in the November midterms, but his family will not support her, and he will not campaign on her behalf. Norman, who lost to Graham in the August GOP primary runoff, has repeatedly criticized Trump's endorsement of her and the state GOP establishment's involvement in the race. Graham, appointed to fill the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a contest that the Cook Political Report recently shifted from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." Trump campaigned for Graham in South Carolina this week as the race tightens.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker spent a day campaigning across South Carolina, headlining the state NAACP's annual convention and stumping for Democratic candidates including Senate nominee Annie Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson. Pritzker urged Democrats to be more combative toward President Trump and Republicans, saying the party has been "too dainty" and "too nice," and calling for a "team fight" posture ahead of the midterms.

Pritzker, who faces reelection in Illinois next month, declined to say whether he's running for president in 2028, framing the trip as support for down-ballot Democrats. Still, his appearance before Black voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state fueled speculation about his national ambitions. He also voiced concern that federal immigration enforcement could be used to intimidate voters in competitive states like South Carolina, and touted his financial support for Southern Democratic candidates, including a $1 million donation to Texas gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved South Carolina's Senate race to "lean Republican" from "likely Republican" and Mississippi's to "likely Republican" from "solid Republican," citing candidate quality and Democrats' broader push into red territory. Democrats are backing the shift with money: the Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad buy in Mississippi attacking incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, boosting Democratic nominee Scott Colom. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews is challenging appointed Sen. Darline Graham. Both races remain steep climbs for Democrats given past Republican margins, but the ratings change adds two more contests to the list Republicans must defend amid economic headwinds ahead of the midterms.