South Carolina Governor Race: Margin of Victory

Sen. Darline Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52% to 48% in South Carolina's Republican runoff for the Senate seat held by her brother Lindsey Graham for 23 years before his death in July. Gov. Henry McMaster had appointed her to fill the seat temporarily, and President Trump endorsed her bid for a full term, holding a tele-rally and headlining a Myrtle Beach rally while directing more than $800,000 from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., toward her campaign. Norman, a five-term congressman who largely self-funded his campaign and drew roughly $700,000 in outside spending tied to Nikki Haley, conceded but noted lingering bitterness among his supporters over Trump's involvement. Graham had weathered criticism after admitting during an August debate she was "not that informed on national security," shifting her campaign's focus to domestic issues and her brother's legacy. She now advances to face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November 3 general election for the seat, considered a safe Republican hold.

The result, alongside a narrow Trump-backed win in Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff, reinforces the president's continued sway in GOP primaries despite recent Trump-endorsed losses elsewhere, including Wyoming and Florida.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.

Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.

A new New York Times poll shows appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in a near-even race, with Graham leading by less than one point among likely voters. Graham, who took the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham's death and later won a contested GOP primary, faces voter doubts about her experience, with a majority saying she lacks the qualifications for the job. Andrews leads among independents and draws some crossover Republican support, with voters favoring her on the economy and cost of living. Despite the close poll, forecasters still rate the seat as leaning Republican in a state Democrats haven't won statewide since 1998.

Republican nominee Alan Wilson and Democratic nominee Jermaine Johnson have agreed to face off in a live, one-hour debate on Oct. 6 in South Carolina's governor's race. The debate, moderated by WIS anchor Judi Gatson with questions from Gray Media political reporters and anchors across the state, will air from the WIS studios in Columbia and stream across Gray-owned stations and digital platforms in Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, Columbia, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Augusta-Aiken, Charlotte and Savannah.

The race marks South Carolina's first open gubernatorial contest in nearly a decade. Gov. Henry McMaster, who took office after Nikki Haley left to become U.N. Ambassador and won full terms in 2018 and 2022, is term-limited. The November election will determine his successor, making this debate a key early test for both candidates ahead of a race prediction markets are watching closely.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), term-limited and widely viewed as a likely 2028 presidential contender, began a three-day swing through South Carolina and North Carolina, his fourth visit to the early primary state. State Democrats say the trip serves a dual purpose: giving Newsom exposure to primary voters while boosting volunteer energy and attention for state legislative races ahead of a critical election roughly 60 days away. Newsom is campaigning in more than 10 counties, including six that President Trump carried in 2024, focusing on competitive state House districts in the Lowcountry region.

Democrats say they are fielding candidates in all 124 state House districts for the first time in about 50 years, and are using visits from potential 2028 contenders like Newsom, Andy Beshear, and Wes Moore as surrogate appearances to energize grassroots organizing. South Carolina Republicans dismissed the visit, arguing Newsom's record makes him an unappealing messenger for the state's voters.

Rep. Ralph Norman said he will keep his pledge to vote for Sen. Darline Graham in the November midterms, but his family will not support her, and he will not campaign on her behalf. Norman, who lost to Graham in the August GOP primary runoff, has repeatedly criticized Trump's endorsement of her and the state GOP establishment's involvement in the race. Graham, appointed to fill the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a contest that the Cook Political Report recently shifted from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." Trump campaigned for Graham in South Carolina this week as the race tightens.

South Carolina voters headed to the polls on Aug. 25 in a Republican runoff to determine who will hold the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster after her brother's passing, faced Rep. Ralph Norman, a 7th District congressman known for clashing with House leadership. Neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the Aug. 11 primary, with Graham taking about 33 percent and Norman about 24 percent, triggering the runoff.

President Donald Trump endorsed Graham and campaigned for her in Myrtle Beach, framing the race as important to Republican midterm prospects. Graham drew criticism after saying "national security is not my thing" during an Aug. 18 debate, prompting rebukes from Norman and former Gov. Nikki Haley, though Trump defended her. Third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham, while fourth-place finisher Mark Sanford, a Trump critic, backed Norman. The winner is heavily favored in the general election against Democrat Andrews in the deep-red state.

Darline Graham Nordone's narrow runoff win over Rep. Ralph Norman to permanently fill her late brother Lindsey Graham's Senate seat is prompting South Carolina strategists to argue the state's 2028 Republican presidential primary could be wide open. Graham Nordone won 52.5% to 47.5% despite trailing Norman on personal spending, benefiting instead from heavy outside spending, including more than $827,000 from Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC and $1 million from a pro-green-energy PAC opposing Norman. Trump endorsed Graham Nordone, while Nikki Haley backed Norman, echoing 2024 primary alignments.

Strategists disagree on what the close margin signals: some say it shows South Carolina isn't fully "MAGA-tized" and remains competitive for non-Trump-aligned candidates, while others attribute the result mainly to spending disparities rather than ideology. Vice President JD Vance currently leads 2028 GOP primary polling well ahead of Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr., but observers caution his advantage isn't guaranteed to hold once multiple candidates compete directly in the state. Graham Nordone now faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in November, with the race notable as South Carolina's first-ever matchup guaranteeing a woman senator.