Jamie Raskin

The Senate adjourned for a five-week recess until after the midterm elections, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing confidence Democrats will retake the majority, citing strong candidates and a favorable political climate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans still expect to hold their majority, though likely narrower, given the map favors states Trump carried previously. Democratic strategists remain split between targeting flippable states like Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa versus reach states such as Mississippi and Florida. Separately, Cook Political Report shifted its Florida and Texas governor's races toward Democrats, now rating both Lean Republican rather than safer categories, citing Trump's weak approval ratings and a difficult midterm environment for the GOP, though Republicans remain favored in both pricey, traditionally red states.

Other developments: a bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal faces resistance in the House, where Democrats say they'd rather wait until after the election to negotiate from a stronger position. House Judiciary's Jamie Raskin asked federal watchdogs to probe taxpayer-funded Trump administration TV ads ahead of the midterms. Schumer also said he'll push AI safety legislation next year, with some Republican support, while Third Way unveiled a Supreme Court reform platform featuring 18-year term limits and an ethics code, aiming to shape Democratic discourse through 2028.

Michigan's Senate contest between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers has become a test of how much religious identity shapes voter behavior heading into the 2026 midterms. El-Sayed, a Muslim epidemiologist, has faced attacks invoking his faith, including comments from Rep. Nancy Mace calling Muslim officeholders a "trojan horse" and President Trump's unsubstantiated claim that El-Sayed "hates Jews." Rogers has run ads tying Democrats to voter disillusionment and linked El-Sayed to remarks made by others about 9/11.

Commentators have drawn comparisons to anti-Catholic bias faced by John F. Kennedy in 1960, with Democratic Reps. Jamie Raskin and Debbie Dingell framing the race as a broader referendum on democracy versus authoritarianism rather than religion. The race also follows a pattern seen in a Michigan House primary, where a Trump-endorsed Christian candidate with an Arabic name underperformed among Republican primary voters. The outcome could signal whether economic and foreign-policy discontent with the Trump administration outweighs identity-based appeals for Michigan voters this cycle.