South Carolina Senate Election: Turnout Forecast

President Donald Trump held a rally in Myrtle Beach urging South Carolina Republicans to back Sen. Darline Graham in Tuesday's runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, the contest that will decide the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat once held by her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. Trump, not on the ballot this cycle, told supporters to "pretend" he was in order to boost turnout and reiterated his "complete and total endorsement" of Graham. Gov. Henry McMaster, who appointed Graham to the seat after her brother's death, formally endorsed her hours before the rally.

The race tightened after Graham stumbled in a debate when asked about Taiwan and the South China Sea, admitting she was "not that informed on national security." Trump defended her as being "honest." The debate moment fueled momentum for Norman, who picked up a notable endorsement from former Gov. Mark Sanford, who broke with Trump, citing the nation's fiscal challenges after the national debt hit $40 trillion. The runoff winner becomes the GOP nominee for the November general election in the reliably red state.

A new New York Times poll shows appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in a near-even race, with Graham leading by less than one point among likely voters. Graham, who took the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham's death and later won a contested GOP primary, faces voter doubts about her experience, with a majority saying she lacks the qualifications for the job. Andrews leads among independents and draws some crossover Republican support, with voters favoring her on the economy and cost of living. Despite the close poll, forecasters still rate the seat as leaning Republican in a state Democrats haven't won statewide since 1998.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.

Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.

Sen. Darline Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52% to 48% in South Carolina's Republican runoff for the Senate seat held by her brother Lindsey Graham for 23 years before his death in July. Gov. Henry McMaster had appointed her to fill the seat temporarily, and President Trump endorsed her bid for a full term, holding a tele-rally and headlining a Myrtle Beach rally while directing more than $800,000 from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., toward her campaign. Norman, a five-term congressman who largely self-funded his campaign and drew roughly $700,000 in outside spending tied to Nikki Haley, conceded but noted lingering bitterness among his supporters over Trump's involvement. Graham had weathered criticism after admitting during an August debate she was "not that informed on national security," shifting her campaign's focus to domestic issues and her brother's legacy. She now advances to face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November 3 general election for the seat, considered a safe Republican hold.

The result, alongside a narrow Trump-backed win in Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff, reinforces the president's continued sway in GOP primaries despite recent Trump-endorsed losses elsewhere, including Wyoming and Florida.

The three candidates vying for South Carolina's U.S. Senate seat met Tuesday night in Columbia for their only scheduled debate before Election Day, held at SCETV studios and broadcast statewide across television, radio and digital platforms. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews, and Libertarian Dr. Kasie Whitener each took part in the hour-long format, which allotted one minute for opening statements, one minute for responses, and 30-second rebuttals. Candidates did not see questions in advance and were barred from using notes or props.

The debate followed a contentious stretch of the campaign, including remarks from President Trump on Truth Social targeting Andrews over transgender-related issues. Recent polling has shown Graham leading Andrews by a narrow margin, within or close to the margin of error, while Whitener trails both.

With early voting set to begin within days and Election Day roughly three weeks away, the debate offered voters a rare direct comparison of the candidates' positions ahead of a race drawing national attention for its competitiveness.

South Carolina Republicans returned to the polls Tuesday to pick a nominee for the Senate seat long held by the late Lindsey Graham, who died in July after winning renomination in June. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to fill her brother's term and backed by President Trump and Sen. Tim Scott, faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff after neither cleared a majority in the Aug. 11 primary; third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the fall.

In Georgia's 13th Congressional District near Atlanta, Democrats Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, daughter of late Rep. David Scott, competed in a runoff to serve the remainder of Scott's term after topping a five-candidate field in July. Neither is seeking the full term beginning in 2027; that contest will pit Democratic state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. Both races drew attention as tests of turnout and party strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, now 70 days off.

South Carolina voters headed to the polls on Aug. 25 in a Republican runoff to determine who will hold the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster after her brother's passing, faced Rep. Ralph Norman, a 7th District congressman known for clashing with House leadership. Neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the Aug. 11 primary, with Graham taking about 33 percent and Norman about 24 percent, triggering the runoff.

President Donald Trump endorsed Graham and campaigned for her in Myrtle Beach, framing the race as important to Republican midterm prospects. Graham drew criticism after saying "national security is not my thing" during an Aug. 18 debate, prompting rebukes from Norman and former Gov. Nikki Haley, though Trump defended her. Third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham, while fourth-place finisher Mark Sanford, a Trump critic, backed Norman. The winner is heavily favored in the general election against Democrat Andrews in the deep-red state.

A Senate financial disclosure shows South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews earned more from gun-control advocacy work than from practicing medicine. The pediatrician was paid by Everytown for Gun Safety's action and support funds, where she served as a senior adviser, alongside income from Children's National Medical Center and paid speeches to pediatric organizations. Andrews resigned her hospital post in 2023 to pursue political advocacy and later launched a PAC before entering the race to challenge for the Senate seat long held by Lindsey Graham. Her campaign platform includes universal background checks and restrictions on certain firearms, and she has drawn support tied to Michael Bloomberg's gun-control network.

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock drew on his history as senior pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church during an Oct. 13 stop in Columbia, South Carolina, telling Democrats and clergy they could not afford to lose the "fight between hope and despair." He criticized Republican cuts to food stamps and Medicaid eligibility, invoked civil rights history, and urged support for Senate candidate Annie Andrews.

Warnock plans to return to South Carolina this weekend to campaign with Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms and early voting. His visits to South Carolina, along with earlier stops in New Hampshire and Nevada — the early presidential primary states — have renewed speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. Warnock downplayed the talk, saying he is focused on 2026 and retaking a Senate majority. Other Democrats eyeing national profiles, including Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, have also recently visited the early-voting state.