South Carolina Senate

A new New York Times poll shows appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in a near-even race, with Graham leading by less than one point among likely voters. Graham, who took the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham's death and later won a contested GOP primary, faces voter doubts about her experience, with a majority saying she lacks the qualifications for the job. Andrews leads among independents and draws some crossover Republican support, with voters favoring her on the economy and cost of living. Despite the close poll, forecasters still rate the seat as leaning Republican in a state Democrats haven't won statewide since 1998.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved South Carolina's Senate race to "lean Republican" from "likely Republican" and Mississippi's to "likely Republican" from "solid Republican," citing candidate quality and Democrats' broader push into red territory. Democrats are backing the shift with money: the Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad buy in Mississippi attacking incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, boosting Democratic nominee Scott Colom. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews is challenging appointed Sen. Darline Graham. Both races remain steep climbs for Democrats given past Republican margins, but the ratings change adds two more contests to the list Republicans must defend amid economic headwinds ahead of the midterms.

President Donald Trump, speaking at a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, said higher gas prices from the Iran conflict were "a small price to pay for keeping the world safe," adding that Iran could "take out" Los Angeles or San Diego and calling it "a very small price to pay" that would be "over with very soon." The crowd cheered. The remark came roughly a month before the midterm elections.

California officials responded swiftly. Governor Gavin Newsom called the comment "dangerous -- if not treasonous," directed the State Threat Assessment Center to monitor for threats against California, and later escalated by calling Trump "mentally ill" and demanding invocation of the 25th Amendment. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass told Trump to "keep LA out of your damn mouth," and gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra accused him of treating Californians' lives as "a punchline." San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria and other mayors, along with Rep. Derek Tran, condemned the remarks. The White House and allies countered that Trump's full remarks were being taken out of context, arguing he meant Iran could strike those cities only if it obtained nuclear weapons, not that the U.S. should allow such an attack.

The Cook Political Report moved its ratings for two Senate races on Sept. 23, shifting Kansas from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and South Carolina from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, while still favoring the GOP in both. Cook cited economic pressures in Kansas—fuel, fertilizer and trade-war concerns—and questions over Sen. Roger Marshall's medical billing practices in his race against Democrat Adam Hamilton. In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham's uneven debate performances and a write-in campaign for primary rival Ralph Norman have raised doubts, though Democrat Annie Andrews remains an underdog. Cook also moved Georgia's race, between Sen. Jon Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins, from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, citing Ossoff's fundraising edge.

Cook now rates overall Senate control a Toss Up, projecting Democrats could net one to five seats; they need four for the majority. Analysts noted a favorable Democratic environment but stressed Republicans' financial advantage and the number of heavily red seats Democrats must still flip.

President Donald Trump held a rally in Myrtle Beach urging South Carolina Republicans to back Sen. Darline Graham in Tuesday's runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, the contest that will decide the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat once held by her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. Trump, not on the ballot this cycle, told supporters to "pretend" he was in order to boost turnout and reiterated his "complete and total endorsement" of Graham. Gov. Henry McMaster, who appointed Graham to the seat after her brother's death, formally endorsed her hours before the rally.

The race tightened after Graham stumbled in a debate when asked about Taiwan and the South China Sea, admitting she was "not that informed on national security." Trump defended her as being "honest." The debate moment fueled momentum for Norman, who picked up a notable endorsement from former Gov. Mark Sanford, who broke with Trump, citing the nation's fiscal challenges after the national debt hit $40 trillion. The runoff winner becomes the GOP nominee for the November general election in the reliably red state.