South Carolina’s 3rd District House Race 2026
South Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District, a largely rural and conservative-leaning seat in the state’s western and upstate regions, heads to the polls on November 3, 2026, to elect its U.S. House representative. The district has long leaned Republican, and the 2026 contest will test whether that advantage holds amid shifting national political winds.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one, making even solidly partisan districts relevant to the broader balance of power in Congress. A Republican hold would reinforce the party’s grip on rural South Carolina, while any unexpected competitiveness could signal shifting voter sentiment heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simply which party’s nominee wins the seat outright, reducing a complex campaign into a binary outcome. This framing isolates partisan control as the single relevant variable, stripping away candidate-level nuance in favor of a clean yes-or-no proposition. Trading activity reflects collective judgment on how durable the district’s partisan lean will prove against any midterm volatility.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
South Carolina -
Upstate South Carolina
Total Volume
$49.6k
Kalshi $7k · Polymarket $42.6k
Leading Market
Sheri Biggs
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Sheri Biggs Volume
$33.5k
Kalshi $4k · Polymarket $29.5k
Sheri Biggs 24h Change
-3.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket -3.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheri BiggsRepublican Party | 98.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Eunice LehmacherDemocratic Party | 3.2¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
South Carolina GOP Senate Runoff Pits Interim Senator Darline Graham Against Ralph Norman
PN Team • 2 months ago
South Carolina's Republican Senate primary runoff has narrowed to a contest between interim Senator Darline Graham and Congressman Ralph Norman, both seeking to serve the remainder of the term left vacant by the death of longtime Senator Lindsey Graham. Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham, the late senator's sister, to hold the seat on an interim basis before the runoff.
Endorsements from President Donald Trump and Senator Tim Scott have given Graham a notable boost heading into the vote, while Norman continues to draw on his House base. Turnout patterns across the Upstate and coastal regions of the state are expected to be decisive in determining the outcome. The race is being watched as a signal of Republican voter priorities in South Carolina and could shape the GOP's approach to filling the seat through the next election cycle.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement is portrayed as a boost to Graham, reflecting his political influence favorably.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican primary runoff is the central subject, but coverage is neutral and procedural.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the factual setting of the political race.
- United States House of Representatives Norman's House seat is mentioned as background context without evaluative content.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the object of the race but described neutrally.
- Upstate South Carolina Upstate South Carolina is mentioned as a factual turnout region relevant to the race outcome.
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Elections
South Carolina and Georgia hold Tuesday special election runoffs
PN Team • 2 months ago
South Carolina Republicans returned to the polls Tuesday to pick a nominee for the Senate seat long held by the late Lindsey Graham, who died in July after winning renomination in June. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to fill her brother's term and backed by President Trump and Sen. Tim Scott, faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff after neither cleared a majority in the Aug. 11 primary; third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the fall.
In Georgia's 13th Congressional District near Atlanta, Democrats Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, daughter of late Rep. David Scott, competed in a runoff to serve the remainder of Scott's term after topping a five-candidate field in July. Neither is seeking the full term beginning in 2027; that contest will pit Democratic state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. Both races drew attention as tests of turnout and party strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, now 70 days off.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is noted as backing Graham, a mild favorable association with a winning-side endorsement.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are mentioned in both races as neutral factual participants.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates and party context are mentioned neutrally.
- Atlanta Atlanta is mentioned as the location of the Georgia district, purely factual.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia is the setting for one of the two runoff elections described factually.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the setting for the Senate runoff described factually.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat races are factually described without evaluative framing.
- United States Senate The Senate seat contest is factually described without evaluative framing.
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Elections
Trump rallies South Carolina voters behind Darline Graham ahead of Senate runoff
PN Team • 2 months ago
President Donald Trump held a rally in Myrtle Beach urging South Carolina Republicans to back Sen. Darline Graham in Tuesday's runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, the contest that will decide the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate seat once held by her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. Trump, not on the ballot this cycle, told supporters to "pretend" he was in order to boost turnout and reiterated his "complete and total endorsement" of Graham. Gov. Henry McMaster, who appointed Graham to the seat after her brother's death, formally endorsed her hours before the rally.
The race tightened after Graham stumbled in a debate when asked about Taiwan and the South China Sea, admitting she was "not that informed on national security." Trump defended her as being "honest." The debate moment fueled momentum for Norman, who picked up a notable endorsement from former Gov. Mark Sanford, who broke with Trump, citing the nation's fiscal challenges after the national debt hit $40 trillion. The runoff winner becomes the GOP nominee for the November general election in the reliably red state.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as actively campaigning and using his influence to boost a favored candidate, a positive display of political clout.
- Republican Party (United States) The article covers a GOP Senate runoff, a factual/neutral context for the party.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the neutral geographic setting for the political contest described.
- United States The United States is referenced only in general political and national debt context, without direct reputational implication.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only as the body containing the Senate seat in question.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only to identify Ralph Norman's current position as a Representative.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the central subject of the runoff race described factually.
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2028 Cycle
Newsom’s South Carolina swing spotlights 2028 potential and California baggage
PN Team • 2 months ago
California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.
Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Newsom accuses Trump of ruthlessness, corruption, and election manipulation, casting him negatively.
- California California is framed as a political liability due to its liberal image potentially hurting Newsom's national prospects.
- Roy Cooper Roy Cooper is portrayed positively as a Senate candidate receiving campaign support from Newsom.
- Josh Shapiro Shapiro is mentioned as a strong rival to Newsom, implicitly favorable by comparison.
- Pete Buttigieg Buttigieg is cited as a potential rival with broader appeal than Newsom, a mildly favorable positioning.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is portrayed as an ambitious, energetic potential 2028 candidate touting his progressive record, though also facing criticism over his state's image.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown mocking Newsom's visits, portraying them as reactive and dismissive rather than substantive.
- South Carolina South Carolina is highlighted positively as an important early primary state for Democrats.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the context for Newsom's tour and 2028 speculation without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Governor of California Newsom's governorship is referenced as the basis for his political record but is largely descriptive.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned as the office Roy Cooper is campaigning for, a neutral factual reference.
- Alabama Alabama is mentioned simply as a stop on Newsom's tour, a neutral factual reference.
- Charlotte, North Carolina Charlotte is mentioned neutrally as the site of a campaign event.
- North Carolina North Carolina is referenced as a key campaign stop and political battleground, described factually.
- United States The United States is mentioned generally in the context of national politics without specific reputational framing.
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Elections
South Carolina Republicans Vote in Runoff to Fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate Seat
PN Team • 2 months ago
South Carolina voters headed to the polls on Aug. 25 in a Republican runoff to determine who will hold the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster after her brother's passing, faced Rep. Ralph Norman, a 7th District congressman known for clashing with House leadership. Neither candidate cleared 50 percent in the Aug. 11 primary, with Graham taking about 33 percent and Norman about 24 percent, triggering the runoff.
President Donald Trump endorsed Graham and campaigned for her in Myrtle Beach, framing the race as important to Republican midterm prospects. Graham drew criticism after saying "national security is not my thing" during an Aug. 18 debate, prompting rebukes from Norman and former Gov. Nikki Haley, though Trump defended her. Third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham, while fourth-place finisher Mark Sanford, a Trump critic, backed Norman. The winner is heavily favored in the general election against Democrat Andrews in the deep-red state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed positively as an active endorser and defender of Graham, reinforcing his political influence.
- Nikki Haley Haley is shown criticizing Graham, casting her in a mildly adversarial light.
- Republican Party (United States) The party context frames the runoff but is described neutrally as the dominant party in a deep-red state.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party of the general election opponent Andrews, a neutral factual reference.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the neutral setting for the election described.
- United States Congress Referenced only via Norman's congressional role, a neutral factual detail.
- United States Senate The Senate seat itself is the neutral subject of the runoff race.
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2028 Cycle
Warnock campaigns in South Carolina, fueling 2028 speculation
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock drew on his history as senior pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church during an Oct. 13 stop in Columbia, South Carolina, telling Democrats and clergy they could not afford to lose the "fight between hope and despair." He criticized Republican cuts to food stamps and Medicaid eligibility, invoked civil rights history, and urged support for Senate candidate Annie Andrews.
Warnock plans to return to South Carolina this weekend to campaign with Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms and early voting. His visits to South Carolina, along with earlier stops in New Hampshire and Nevada — the early presidential primary states — have renewed speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. Warnock downplayed the talk, saying he is focused on 2026 and retaking a Senate majority. Other Democrats eyeing national profiles, including Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, have also recently visited the early-voting state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Raphael Warnock Warnock is portrayed as a prominent, principled Democratic figure drawing national attention and rising political speculation.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are criticized for cuts to food stamps and Medicaid eligibility, casting them negatively.
- South Carolina South Carolina is central to the story as the site of Warnock's campaigning and speculation about his political future.
- Atlanta Atlanta is mentioned as the location of Warnock's church, a neutral biographical detail.
- Columbia, South Carolina Columbia, South Carolina is the site of Warnock's campaign stop, mentioned factually.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as the audience and political context without strong positive or negative framing.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia is mentioned as Warnock's home state in a neutral factual context.
- Nevada Nevada is mentioned as an early primary state Warnock visited, factual and neutral.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is mentioned as an early primary state Warnock visited, factual and neutral.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned as the institution Warnock serves in and aims to help Democrats retake, a neutral factual reference.
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Elections
Norman Says Family Will Not Vote for Sen. Graham in South Carolina Race
PN Team • 1 week ago
Rep. Ralph Norman said he will keep his pledge to vote for Sen. Darline Graham in the November midterms, but his family will not support her, and he will not campaign on her behalf. Norman, who lost to Graham in the August GOP primary runoff, has repeatedly criticized Trump's endorsement of her and the state GOP establishment's involvement in the race. Graham, appointed to fill the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a contest that the Cook Political Report recently shifted from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." Trump campaigned for Graham in South Carolina this week as the race tightens.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Depicted as internally divided, with Norman criticizing the state GOP establishment's handling of the race.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement of Graham is criticized by Norman, casting mild doubt on his judgment amid a tightening race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of challenger Annie Andrews in a tightening race.
- South Carolina Mentioned as the setting for a competitive, tightening political race without direct reputational judgment.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as Norman's chamber of service, without evaluative content.
- United States Senate Referenced as the body Graham and Norman are associated with, factual context only.
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Elections
Trump-Backed Graham Wins South Carolina GOP Senate Runoff
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. Darline Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52% to 48% in South Carolina's Republican runoff for the Senate seat held by her brother Lindsey Graham for 23 years before his death in July. Gov. Henry McMaster had appointed her to fill the seat temporarily, and President Trump endorsed her bid for a full term, holding a tele-rally and headlining a Myrtle Beach rally while directing more than $800,000 from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., toward her campaign. Norman, a five-term congressman who largely self-funded his campaign and drew roughly $700,000 in outside spending tied to Nikki Haley, conceded but noted lingering bitterness among his supporters over Trump's involvement. Graham had weathered criticism after admitting during an August debate she was "not that informed on national security," shifting her campaign's focus to domestic issues and her brother's legacy. She now advances to face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November 3 general election for the seat, considered a safe Republican hold.
The result, alongside a narrow Trump-backed win in Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff, reinforces the president's continued sway in GOP primaries despite recent Trump-endorsed losses elsewhere, including Wyoming and Florida.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement, rallies, and financial backing are credited with helping secure Graham's win, reinforcing his political influence.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican runoff and Trump's continued influence over the GOP primary process are portrayed favorably for the party's coalition.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrat Annie Andrews is named as the party's nominee facing Graham, a neutral factual mention.
- Nikki Haley Haley's allies backed Norman's losing effort, a mild tangential association with defeat.
- Oklahoma Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff is cited as another example reinforcing Trump's primary influence.
- South Carolina South Carolina is the central location of the Senate runoff, described neutrally as the setting for the political contest.
- Wyoming Wyoming is mentioned only as a location of a separate Trump-endorsed primary loss, tangential to this story.
- Florida Florida is mentioned only as a location of a separate Trump-endorsed primary loss, tangential to this race.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as the chamber Norman and Graham's brother served in, a neutral institutional mention.
- United States Senate Mentioned as the seat being contested, a neutral factual reference.
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2028 Cycle
South Carolina Senate runoff fuels questions about 2028 GOP primary
PN Team • 2 months ago
Darline Graham Nordone's narrow runoff win over Rep. Ralph Norman to permanently fill her late brother Lindsey Graham's Senate seat is prompting South Carolina strategists to argue the state's 2028 Republican presidential primary could be wide open. Graham Nordone won 52.5% to 47.5% despite trailing Norman on personal spending, benefiting instead from heavy outside spending, including more than $827,000 from Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC and $1 million from a pro-green-energy PAC opposing Norman. Trump endorsed Graham Nordone, while Nikki Haley backed Norman, echoing 2024 primary alignments.
Strategists disagree on what the close margin signals: some say it shows South Carolina isn't fully "MAGA-tized" and remains competitive for non-Trump-aligned candidates, while others attribute the result mainly to spending disparities rather than ideology. Vice President JD Vance currently leads 2028 GOP primary polling well ahead of Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr., but observers caution his advantage isn't guaranteed to hold once multiple candidates compete directly in the state. Graham Nordone now faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in November, with the race notable as South Carolina's first-ever matchup guaranteeing a woman senator.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement and PAC spending are credited with helping secure Graham Nordone's win, portraying his influence as effective.
- South Carolina South Carolina is portrayed as a competitive political battleground, a neutral-to-mildly-positive framing of its political relevance.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only tangentially as Graham Nordone's Democratic opponent's party in November.
- Nikki Haley Haley backed the losing candidate, mildly reflecting on her diminished influence in the state.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as the party whose primary dynamics and internal divisions are discussed neutrally.
- United States House of Representatives Ralph Norman's current House seat is mentioned factually with no strong reputational charge.
- United States Senate The Senate seat itself is the subject of the race, described neutrally.
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Elections
South Carolina Senate Candidate’s Income Tied to Gun Control Advocacy
PN Team • 4 days ago
A Senate financial disclosure shows South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews earned more from gun-control advocacy work than from practicing medicine. The pediatrician was paid by Everytown for Gun Safety's action and support funds, where she served as a senior adviser, alongside income from Children's National Medical Center and paid speeches to pediatric organizations. Andrews resigned her hospital post in 2023 to pursue political advocacy and later launched a PAC before entering the race to challenge for the Senate seat long held by Lindsey Graham. Her campaign platform includes universal background checks and restrictions on certain firearms, and she has drawn support tied to Michael Bloomberg's gun-control network.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as candidate's party affiliation without direct portrayal.
- United States Senate Referenced only as the office being sought, no direct portrayal.
- South Carolina Named as the state of the Senate race, factual context only.
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Who Will Win South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District House Seat
Leading:
55.5%
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
Vol $9.3k
South Carolina’s 4th District House Race 2026
Leading:
95.5%
William Timmons
Vol $15k
South Carolina’s 5th District House Race 2026
Leading:
94%
Wes Climer
Vol $21.6k
South Carolina’s 6th District House Race 2026
Leading:
99%
James E Jim Clyburn
Vol $9.6k
South Carolina’s 2nd District House Race 2026
Leading:
87.5%
Joe Wilson
Vol $2k
South Carolina’s 7th District House Race 2026
Leading:
95%
Russell Fry
Vol $19.3k
How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in South Carolina in 2026
Leading:
61.5%
1
Vol $8.9k
South Carolina Senate Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
72.5%
Darline Graham
Vol $1.1m