Swing state

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Burt Jackson said he's worried rural Georgia voters may not turn out strongly for him, as early voting shows high turnout among Black voters, a key bloc for Democrats. Jackson faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) in a close contest; a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll gave Jackson a narrow one-point lead. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) leads his reelection race by a wider margin, and Democrats hope strong Ossoff turnout lifts Bottoms. Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive, has self-funded over $100 million of his campaign, far outpacing Bottoms, though Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker donated $1 million to her effort. Decision Desk HQ gives Bottoms a 56 percent win probability.

Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign confirmed it produced the controversial ad featuring Dr. Amy Acton's long-estranged mother, Donna Arthur, who calls her daughter "a liar." The campaign is spending $4 million to run the ad statewide and has declined to pull it despite bipartisan condemnation. Acton's brother says the siblings were removed from their mother's custody as children after their stepfather was indicted for raping Acton between ages 9 and 12. Gov. Mike DeWine called the ad "deeply, deeply troubling" and urged Ramaswamy to take it down while keeping his endorsement; Sen. Jon Husted and former Rep. Jim Renacci also criticized it, warning of a GOP backlash. VP JD Vance dismissed the outcry as "whining," and President Trump defended Ramaswamy, calling the mother's hostility "unusual." Acton leads polling in a race drawing over $120 million in outside spending.

Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said during a debate that private election funding dubbed "Zuckerbucks" — grants from a Mark Zuckerberg-backed nonprofit that helped Wisconsin communities run elections during the pandemic — was a key reason he objected to certifying the state's 2020 results and backed Trump's bid to disqualify absentee ballots from Milwaukee and Dane counties. Democratic opponent David Crowley called the explanation inadequate, noting Tiffany alleged no actual fraud, and questioned whether Tiffany could be trusted to certify 2028 results. Tiffany pledged he would certify the 2028 election regardless of outcome. Wisconsin voters later banned private election grant funding via constitutional amendment.

U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said in a debate that private election grants funded by Mark Zuckerberg — dubbed "Zuckerbucks" by critics — drove his support for Trump's efforts to overturn Wisconsin's 2020 results. Tiffany also cited Milwaukee and Dane County clerks allowing "indefinitely confined" voters to skip photo ID requirements. Over 200 Wisconsin communities received roughly $10 million from the Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life during the pandemic; voters later banned such private election funding via a 2024 constitutional amendment. Democratic opponent David Crowley argued Tiffany's explanation was inadequate and questioned his trustworthiness to certify 2028 results, though Tiffany pledged he would certify regardless of outcome.

U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said during a debate that his 2020 objection to certifying Wisconsin's presidential election results stemmed from private election-administration grants funded by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, dubbed "Zuckerbucks" by critics. More than 200 Wisconsin communities received about $10 million from the Zuckerberg-backed Center for Tech and Civic Life during the pandemic. Tiffany also cited Milwaukee and Dane county clerks allowing "indefinitely confined" voters to skip photo ID for absentee ballots. He backed Trump's failed bid to disqualify 220,000 absentee ballots and voted against counting Pennsylvania and Arizona electoral votes. Democratic opponent David Crowley questioned whether Tiffany can be trusted to certify 2028 results; Tiffany said he would.