Virginia Senate winner?
Related terms
-
Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Senate -
Washington, D.C. -
Swing state -
Virginia -
Mark Warner -
Bert Mizusawa
Total Volume
$396.6k
Kalshi $67.9k · Polymarket $328.7k
Leading Market
Mark Warner
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Mark Warner Volume
$196.2k
Kalshi $29.5k · Polymarket $166.8k
Mark Warner 24h Change
+0.90%
Kalshi +0.90% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark WarnerDemocratic Party | 98.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Bert MizusawaRepublican Party | 2.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Virginia’s 2026 Election Day Ballot
PN Team • 2 days ago
Virginia voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to decide three constitutional amendments — on reproductive rights, marriage equality, and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons after sentence completion — alongside federal races. Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while competitive U.S. House contests play out in the 1st (Wittman vs. Taylor), 4th (McClellan vs. Murray and Bell), and 5th (McGuire vs. Perriello and Harvey) districts. Richmond and Chesterfield voters will also weigh a 1% sales tax increase to fund school construction, alongside 45 other Virginia localities, plus local School Board and Board of Supervisors races. Early voting runs through Oct. 31.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mark Warner Described neutrally as seeking a fourth Senate term, a modest sign of political standing.
- Bert Mizusawa Listed neutrally as Warner's electoral opponent.
- Jennifer McClellan Named neutrally as a candidate in the 4th district race.
- Richmond, Virginia Mentioned factually as a locality voting on a sales tax increase.
- United States House of Representatives Factually referenced as the body contested in House district races.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the seat Warner is seeking reelection to.
- Virginia Central subject of balanced election coverage with no favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Virginia's 1st congressional district Referenced factually as the site of a competitive House race.
- Virginia's 4th congressional district Referenced factually as the site of a competitive House race.
- Virginia's 5th congressional district Referenced factually as the site of a competitive House race.
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Elections
Virginia early voting begins for November 3 election with statewide races and constitutional amendments
PN Team • 1 month ago
Early voting has opened in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, running through Oct. 31 with a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.
Richmond-area voters will also weigh in on federal races: Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while U.S. House contests include the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield, along with 45 other Virginia localities, will vote on authorizing a local 1% sales tax for school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million and $70 million annually, respectively. Richmond also holds a special School Board election between incumbent Anne Holton and Jackie McDonnough.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mark Warner Mark Warner is neutrally described as seeking a fourth Senate term.
- Virginia Virginia is portrayed neutrally as the setting for statewide elections and ballot measures.
- John McGuire (Virginia politician) John McGuire is listed as a candidate in a factual account of the 5th District race.
- Richmond, Virginia Richmond is factually described regarding local voting measures and a school board race.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced factually through the House and Senate races described.
- United States House of Representatives The House races are described factually without favorable or unfavorable framing.
- United States Senate The Senate race involving Mark Warner is mentioned neutrally.
- Virginia's 4th congressional district The 4th District race is described factually with candidate names.
- Virginia's 5th congressional district The 5th District race is described factually with candidate names.
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Elections
Virginia early voting begins for Nov. 3 election with amendments, congressional races on ballot
PN Team • 1 month ago
Early voting opened Sept. 18 in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 election, with voting continuing through Oct. 31 and a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.
Congressional races include Democratic Sen. Mark Warner seeking a fourth term against Republican Bert Mizusawa, plus contests in the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield voters, along with 45 other localities, will also weigh a potential 1% sales tax increase dedicated to school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million annually in Richmond and up to $70 million in Chesterfield. Local races include a Richmond School Board special election and a contested Chesterfield School Board seat.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mark Warner Warner is portrayed neutrally to slightly favorably as an incumbent seeking a fourth term.
- John McGuire (Virginia politician) McGuire is listed neutrally as a candidate in the 5th District race.
- Richmond, Virginia Richmond is mentioned factually regarding local ballot measures and school board elections.
- Virginia Virginia is the subject of the article covering its election process factually.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are mentioned as running in various races without editorializing.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates are mentioned as running in various races without editorializing.
- United States Congress Congressional races are described factually as part of the ballot.
- United States House of Representatives House races are listed factually with candidate names and districts.
- United States Senate The Senate race is mentioned factually regarding Warner's reelection bid.
- Virginia's 1st congressional district The 1st District is mentioned factually as hosting a congressional race.
- Virginia's 4th congressional district The 4th District is mentioned factually as hosting a congressional race.
- Virginia's 5th congressional district The 5th District is mentioned factually as hosting a congressional race.
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Elections
Peggy Flanagan Highlights Ojibwe Name in Minnesota Senate Campaign
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota, shared the meaning of her Ojibwe name in a social media post, framing it as a statement of political identity. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, said her name, "Gizhiiwewidamookwe," translates to "Speaks in a Loud and Clear Voice Woman," adding that she intends to be "Minnesota's voice in the U.S. Senate" rather than President Donald Trump's.
Flanagan, who has twice been elected as Gov. Tim Walz's running mate, is facing Republican candidate Michele Tafoya in the race. The post drew mixed reactions online, with some critics mocking the translation and others accusing her of political posturing. The exchange follows earlier scrutiny of Flanagan after video surfaced of her wearing a hijab while addressing Somali migrant constituents, amid broader controversy in Minnesota over fraud involving welfare funds tied to Somali community programs.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Peggy Flanagan The post frames her name reveal as drawing mockery and accusations of political posturing, alongside unresolved controversy over hijab-wearing amid a welfare fraud scandal.
- Donald Trump Referenced only as a contrast point in Flanagan's statement about whose voice she represents.
- Minnesota Referenced as the setting for the Senate race and the welfare fraud controversy, giving it a mildly negative association.
- Tim Walz Mentioned only as the running mate she has twice been elected alongside, a neutral factual detail.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Flanagan's party affiliation without further commentary.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as the party of her opponent Michele Tafoya in a factual context.
- United States Senate Mentioned as the office being contested, purely factual.
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Elections
Trump’s dismissal of USS Lincoln conditions threatens GOP in Virginia House race
PN Team • 2 months ago
President Trump has repeatedly downplayed reports of deteriorating conditions aboard the USS Lincoln and other Navy vessels deployed amid the ongoing war with Iran, calling the accounts "fake news" and suggesting sailors haven't been out "nearly long enough." The response has drawn criticism and could carry political consequences in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, a Tidewater-region seat with one of the country's largest active-duty military populations, heavily Navy-affiliated.
Democrat Elaine Luria, a Navy veteran challenging Republican Representative Jen Kiggans in a rematch, says she plans to make Trump's comments a central campaign issue, arguing they reflect a broader carelessness toward service members and insufficient GOP oversight of the military. Kiggans has blamed media "misinformation" for the controversy, echoing her earlier dismissal of concerns about the carrier Gerald R. Ford. Local Republicans concede the prolonged war exposes the administration to criticism, even as they downplay the political risk among military families.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed dismissing legitimate concerns about sailors' conditions, calling them fake news, which is reputationally damaging.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans, including Kiggans, are shown downplaying legitimate concerns and blaming media, exposing them to political risk.
- United States Navy Reports of deteriorating conditions aboard Navy vessels reflect poorly on the Navy's readiness and welfare standards.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrat Luria is positioned favorably as raising legitimate concerns about military conditions and oversight.
- United States Congress The piece implies insufficient congressional oversight of the military situation.
- Iran Iran is mentioned only as the context of the ongoing war, a neutral factual reference.
- Virginia Virginia is referenced as the political backdrop for the House race without direct reputational implication.
- Virginia's 2nd congressional district The district is central to the story as the political battleground but is mentioned factually without reputational spin.
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Administration Watch
VA touts faster disability claims processing under Trump, but questions on quality remain
PN Team • 1 month ago
The Department of Veterans Affairs says it has sharply reduced disability claims backlogs and processing times under the Trump administration, though veterans groups and analysts caution that speed shouldn't come at the expense of accuracy.
According to VA data, the agency processed more than 3 million disability claims in fiscal year 2026, a new record, while awarding over $207 billion in compensation and pension benefits. Average decision time fell from roughly 141.5 days in January 2025 to 75.6 days in September 2026, with the pending claims backlog down more than 70 percent and accuracy near 94 percent, the highest in two years.
VA Secretary Doug Collins credited the improvements to modernization efforts, and officials note the department also enrolled over 270,000 new veterans in health care and opened 41 new facilities since January 2025. Veterans advocates acknowledge the gains but warn that staffing shortages, coordination problems, and the risk of undervalued disability ratings remain concerns as the administration pushes efficiency as a top priority.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Doug Collins (politician) VA Secretary Doug Collins is directly credited with the modernization efforts driving improved performance.
- Donald Trump The improvements in VA claims processing are attributed to the Trump administration, casting it in a favorable light.
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Elections
Ken Paxton Vents Over Lack of Control in Texas Senate Race as GOP Rifts Widen
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been caught on leaked audio complaining that Washington operatives and party leaders, rather than himself, are controlling his campaign's messaging. "I've never been in a race where I felt less control," Paxton said at a fundraiser, adding frustration that decisions were coming "from DC." His campaign says he was referring to super PACs, which cannot legally coordinate with campaigns but have spent heavily on his behalf. A separate leaked recording had Paxton acknowledging his numbers dropped after a Trump-headlined GOP convention in Dallas.
The disclosures add to visible strain within Texas Republican ranks ahead of the November 3 election against Democrat James Talarico, with Senator John Cornyn among those reluctant to fully rally behind Paxton. Angela Paxton, the AG's estranged wife who filed for divorce in July 2025 citing adultery, has released a PAC-funded ad urging Republicans to back the full GOP ticket regardless of individual candidates. Polling shows Talarico with a narrow lead, and Republicans have poured tens of millions of dollars into defending the seat.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ken Paxton Paxton is shown venting about lack of control, declining poll numbers, and marital scandal, all reputationally damaging.
- Republican Party (United States) The article depicts visible internal strain and reluctance among Republicans to rally behind their own nominee.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic nominee Talarico is noted leading in polls, a mildly favorable mention for the party.
- Texas Senate The Texas Senate race is portrayed as contentious and strained without directly assigning blame to the institution.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is cited as the source of outside political control resented by Paxton, a mildly negative association.
- Texas Texas is the setting of the contested race, mentioned factually without strong reputational charge.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the office being contested without specific reputational framing.
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Elections
Iowa GOP Senate Candidate Hinson Navigates Trump Tightrope
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Republican Ashley Hinson is locked in a competitive Iowa U.S. Senate race against Democrat Josh Turek, and GOP strategists acknowledge she faces a delicate balancing act with Donald Trump. Hinson has sought to create modest distance from the president on select issues without openly breaking with him or risking backlash from his base, which remains influential in Iowa's Republican electorate.
The dynamic reflects broader concerns within the GOP about how closely Senate candidates in competitive states should align themselves with Trump heading into the midterms. Turek, the Democratic challenger, is positioning himself to capitalize on any erosion of Republican support tied to dissatisfaction with Trump-era policies or rhetoric. The race is being watched as a bellwether for how Republican incumbents and candidates elsewhere manage similar tensions between base loyalty and swing-voter appeal, with implications for control of the Senate.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is framed as a political liability candidates must carefully distance themselves from without alienating his base.
- Ashley Hinson Hinson is depicted as navigating a precarious political balancing act, suggesting vulnerability and strategic difficulty.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic challenger Turek is portrayed as strategically positioned to gain from GOP tensions, a mildly favorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The party is depicted as internally anxious about how candidates should handle association with Trump, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Iowa Iowa is mentioned as the race's location without specific reputational framing.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the body whose control is at stake in the midterms.
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Elections
Husted touts tax cuts in RNC speech as he campaigns against Brown for Ohio Senate seat
PN Team • 2 months ago
Ohio Sen. Jon Husted addressed the Republican National Convention in Dallas, one of several speakers on the event's first night alongside House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso. The two-day convention, headlined by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, comes less than two months before the November midterms.
Husted centered his remarks on affordability, citing conversations with Ohioans he says have benefited from tax cuts signed into law last year, including provisions eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income. He pointed to workers in Cleveland, Findlay, and Dayton as examples of people using the savings to pay down debt, save for a home, or stay in their houses as they age.
Husted is running to keep his Senate seat against Democrat Sherrod Brown, the former senator who lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024 and is seeking a return to Washington. Brown has recently campaigned in the Cleveland and Canton areas. Election Day is November 3.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Sherrod Brown Brown is framed as a past election loser now seeking a comeback, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned as headlining the convention, a factual and mildly favorable association.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is referenced as the political affiliation of the speakers at the convention.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the Senate race and tax cut examples, mentioned neutrally.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the subject of the race but mentioned neutrally.
- Dallas Dallas is mentioned only as the location of the convention.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is mentioned only as the destination Brown seeks to return to.
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Congress
Beshear Says McConnell Has Not Responded to Health Update Requests
PN Team • 2 months ago
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear reiterated Sunday on CBS News's "Face the Nation" that he has "heard absolutely nothing back" from Sen. Mitch McConnell, more than two months into the senator's absence. Beshear said he wishes McConnell good health but called the Republican-controlled Senate unaccountable, saying McConnell "absolutely refuses" to address the public directly even briefly, and faulted Senate Majority Leader John Thune for deferring to McConnell's office rather than ensuring senators have the capacity to serve.
McConnell, 84, has not cast a Senate vote since June 11 following a fall and hospitalization at his Capitol Hill home in mid-June. He later disclosed a brief loss of consciousness and pneumonia, moved to a rehab facility, and was discharged to recover at home on Aug. 6, with no timeline for returning to work. His office says he has no fractures, concussion, heart attack, or stroke and continues physical therapy while engaging on Senate business. Some Senate Republicans, including Sen. Roger Marshall, have expressed confidence McConnell will return before his term ends; he is not seeking reelection. The Senate returns from recess Sept. 14.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mitch McConnell McConnell is depicted as unresponsive to health update requests and criticized for refusing to address the public despite a prolonged absence.
- John Thune Thune is faulted for deferring to McConnell's office instead of ensuring the Senate functions properly.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-controlled Senate is criticized by Beshear as unaccountable regarding McConnell's absence.
- United States Senate The Senate is portrayed as lacking accountability and failing to ensure senators can perform their duties.
- Andy Beshear Beshear is shown as a critical voice raising legitimate accountability concerns, a mostly neutral-to-mildly favorable portrayal.
- Kentucky Kentucky is mentioned only as Beshear's and McConnell's state, a neutral factual reference.
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Virginia’s 8th District House Race Winner
Leading:
98.6%
Don Beyer
Vol $12.2k
Virginia’s 10th District House Race Heads to 2026 Ballot
Leading:
98%
Suhas Subramanyam
Vol $11.9k
Virginia Senate Election: Voter Turnout
Leading:
98.5%
Above 3M
Vol $0.23
Ohio U.S. Senate Election 2026: Winner
Leading:
30.5%
Jon Husted
Vol $27.6m
Florida Senate: Which Party Wins the 2026 Seat
Leading:
89.5%
Ashley Moody
Vol $1.2m
Colorado Senate Election: Voter Turnout Thresholds
Leading:
96%
Above 2.1M
Vol $0.20
West Virginia Senate Election 2026: Who Will Win
Leading:
98.5%
Shelley Moore Capito
Vol $41.5k
Virginia’s 11th District House Race 2026
Leading:
97.5%
James Walkinshaw
Vol $19.8k