Florida Senate Race: Margin of Victory

Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.

DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.

Florida's two marquee 2026 statewide races present unusual racial pairings, and candidates are handling the dynamic very differently. In the Senate race, Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive from Jacksonville, faces Republican Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds, who could become Florida's first Black governor, is running against David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat with strong Black voter support.

Analysts say Donalds has mostly avoided Black-specific outreach and race-focused messaging, emphasizing the economy and school choice instead, reflecting a common strategy for Black conservative candidates wary of alienating their base. Despite recent efforts to court Black voters, polling shows Jolly holding a commanding lead among Black voters. Nixon, by contrast, has leaned into discussing race directly while also courting white working-class voters with economic messaging, trailing Moody in current polling but with strategists calling her a credible underdog capable of winning with strong turnout.

Donalds has continued to draw national attention on other issues, recently criticizing far-left Florida Democrats who have called to abolish ICE amid the broader immigration debate.

Alex Alvarado, a GOP operative implicated in Florida's 2020 "ghost candidate" scheme, is now sending text messages suggesting Democratic attorney general candidate Jose Javier Rodríguez won't "defend reproductive freedom." The texts, funded through a newly registered committee called Lower Our Costs Now, cite a 2015 abortion bill vote Rodríguez missed on the floor but later recorded a "no" vote on afterward. Rodríguez's campaign calls the ads misleading and notes his Planned Parenthood endorsement. Alvarado, an early donor to incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier, was previously tied to 2020 efforts—some resulting in convictions—to siphon votes from Democrats using decoy independent candidates, including a scheme that helped defeat Rodríguez's state Senate bid.

Democrat Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in Florida's Senate primary by nearly 12 points, is now challenging Republican Senator Ashley Moody in a race most analysts consider a longshot for Democrats. Florida has 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and polls show Moody leading, though margins vary. Nixon faces a severe funding gap, having raised under $1 million to Moody's more than $11 million as of late July, limiting her ability to counter attack ads tying her to the Democratic Socialists of America.

National Democrats have been slow to invest in the race, but Senators Chris Murphy and Bernie Sanders are campaigning with Nixon this week, with Sanders contributing $250,000. Nixon is running on universal health care, child care, and affordable housing, and is working to mobilize Black voters and women while courting GOP-leaning communities. She has embraced an unapologetically progressive, grassroots-driven campaign, drawing comparisons to gubernatorial nominee David Jolly's more moderate crossover strategy, with both races seen as tests of competing Democratic approaches ahead of 2028. Analysts say Trump's unpopularity and cost-of-living concerns give her an opening, but she would need exceptionally high Democratic turnout combined with Republican voters staying home to overcome the state's structural disadvantages.

Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.

Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.

Angie Nixon, a Florida state representative running for state Senate with Democratic Socialists of America backing, defeated Alex Vindman in Tuesday's primary, a surprise result now drawing national scrutiny of her past statements. Circulating remarks, highlighted by RNC Research and conservative outlets, include Nixon saying Republicans "are literally trying to kill us" and are unwilling to work across the aisle, plus her description of ICE as a "weaponized paramilitary force" meant to "terrorize" that she says should be abolished and whose agents she suggested should be jailed.

Footage also shows Nixon quoting Assata Shakur, a former FBI-listed fugitive convicted in a police officer's killing, during a church campaign stop, framing voting rights, school funding, and immigration enforcement as modern "chains." She has defended drag shows as "wholesome entertainment" for children and voiced support for reinstating DEI policies and a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. Nixon now faces Republican incumbent Ashley Moody in November's general election, with the controversy likely to shape narratives around DSA-aligned candidates nationally.

With the midterm election days away, Florida's U.S. Senate race pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis, against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the August primary. Moody is campaigning on her record as a former attorney general and prosecutor, emphasizing law enforcement, individual freedoms, and Florida's conservative policies while casting Nixon as a socialist. Nixon is focused on affordability, government corruption, and working families, accusing Moody of using office for personal enrichment. Both candidates reject the other's characterizations as the race heads into its final week before November's vote.

Former President Donald Trump is set to spend more time in Florida this month, beginning with an overnight stay at Mar-a-Lago following an October 23 rally in Fort Myers, in the heart of Rep. Byron Donalds' Southwest Florida district. The visits mark the start of what Republicans are calling his "Florida season" ahead of midterm elections now about two weeks away.

Despite Florida's reputation as increasingly friendly territory for the GOP, Republicans are voicing concern about enthusiasm and turnout. Polls show Donalds and Sen. Ashley Moody with only marginal leads in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state by more than 1.5 million, but Democrats have so far cast more vote-by-mail ballots, a shift from past cycles that followed Trump's criticism of mail voting since 2020. Republicans are now leaning more heavily on early in-person turnout, with party strategists describing the coming days as "crunch time" for mobilizing the base.

A Democratic-backed super PAC has poured $2 million into ads attacking Florida Sen. Ashley Moody over her record on releasing Jeffrey Epstein's files, featuring survivor Marina Lacerda questioning Moody's priorities. The ad notes Moody joined other Republicans in blocking a September 2025 measure tied to the defense budget, but omits that the Senate later approved a standalone release bill by unanimous consent. The National Republican Senatorial Committee called the ads false and misleading, saying Moody ultimately supported transparency legislation. Epstein-related ads have run in 63 congressional races nationally, totaling $76 million.

With Election Day days away, Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who accuses Moody of refusing to debate and of involvement in misappropriating $10 million in Medicaid funds, which Moody denies. Moody has campaigned with gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, branding Nixon a communist, a label Nixon rejects.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, speaking Wednesday in Orlando, weighed in on Florida's primary results and a scandal involving one of his own appointees. He dismissed Angie Nixon's chances against Sen. Ashley Moody in November, calling the progressive state lawmaker's Senate bid unlikely to succeed statewide, and touted Florida's growing GOP voter registration advantage. He also backed Ryan Elijah, who defeated embattled Rep. Cory Mills in the GOP primary, saying Mills' nomination would have put the seat at risk in the general election.

DeSantis called the arrest of Michael Caruso, whom he appointed Palm Beach County clerk of courts, a "gut punch." Caruso, 67, a former state representative once praised by DeSantis, faces five felony charges including kidnapping, molestation, luring and enticing a child, lewd and lascivious exhibition, and child abuse. Authorities say the victim, Caruso's grandson under age 12, described abuse on three occasions, including during a Thanksgiving 2024 incident and aboard a cruise ship in August 2025. Caruso denied the allegations when confronted and is being held without bond in Orange County. DeSantis suspended Caruso and installed an interim clerk; Attorney General James Uthmeier said Caruso would "face the full force of the law," and reports indicate a daughter had previously made similar allegations.