Florida Governor Race: Margin of Victory

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis largely sat out the state's recent Republican primaries, declining to endorse a successor -- including his own lieutenant governor, who ran -- and at times criticizing Rep. Byron Donalds, who ultimately won the GOP gubernatorial primary. DeSantis skipped campaigning for candidates and did not attend the traditional post-primary unity rally the state party uses to showcase its ticket ahead of November.

His near-total silence had fueled speculation that DeSantis, term-limited and preparing to leave office, might remain disengaged through Election Day given his often tense relationships with Florida GOP figures. But there are now growing expectations that he will step up, campaigning and fundraising for Republicans down the ballot while emphasizing his own role in cementing Florida as a Republican stronghold.

For prediction markets, DeSantis's posture matters as a variable in Florida's gubernatorial race and down-ballot contests, where his endorsement, fundraising reach, and voter turnout influence could shape competitiveness heading into the general election.

With one week until Election Day, Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are campaigning across Florida to close out the governor's race. Donalds, touring by bus, cast Jolly as inconsistent and pledged cost-cutting measures and government transparency. Jolly, framing his campaign around change, argued a Democratic win would defy Florida's deep-red lean. A new University of North Florida poll shows a tightening race, with Donalds and Jolly close and a small share of voters undecided. Transgender athletes in women's sports has also emerged as a flashpoint, with Donalds' campaign highlighting past remarks by Jolly on the issue and attacking his position, while Jolly has called for leaving related decisions to courts and sports leagues.

With Gov. Ron DeSantis term-limited, Florida's November 3 election will determine who succeeds First Lady Casey DeSantis, known for her cancer-prevention advocacy and the Hope Florida welfare initiative. Erika Donalds, wife of Republican nominee Byron Donalds, is a former Collier County school board member and founder of the Education Freedom Foundation, and says she would continue pushing for school choice. Laura Jolly, wife of Democratic nominee David Jolly, has not committed to specific duties given the couple's two young children but says she would lend her voice to issues benefiting Floridians. The race's outcome will shape both Florida's governorship and its next First Lady's priorities.

A Leon County grand jury concluded that $10 million in state Medicaid settlement money was "misappropriated" after being diverted to Hope Florida, the charity founded by Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, but declined to bring criminal charges, citing insufficient evidence identifying who was responsible. The report, completed in January but only recently made public after a leak, found the funds were routed to political action committees, including one tied to then-chief of staff James Uthmeier, that campaigned against a 2024 ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana. The measure narrowly failed.

Gov. Ron DeSantis did not dispute the report's authenticity but denied any laws were broken and threatened consequences for whoever leaked it. Uthmeier called renewed scrutiny a "politically motivated hoax," while former Attorney General Ashley Moody said her office had no knowledge of how the funds would ultimately be spent. Both Uthmeier and Moody are seeking reelection. Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly called for the investigation to be reopened, adding a political dimension ahead of Florida's 2026 governor's race between Republican Byron Donalds and Jolly.

A Leon County grand jury report, first obtained by CBS News Miami, found that Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration "misappropriated" $10 million in taxpayer money from a $67 million Medicaid settlement with Centene, Florida's largest Medicaid contractor. Jurors called the transfer "part of a sophisticated scheme to fund political activities." The funds were routed through the Hope Florida Foundation, a charity founded by first lady Casey DeSantis, then through two nonprofits before reaching political committees, including "Keep Florida Clean," run by then-chief of staff James Uthmeier, which spent the money opposing Amendment 3, the 2024 marijuana legalization measure that narrowly failed. The grand jury said no witness took responsibility for the original decision and cited insufficient evidence to charge anyone, though it urged changes to prevent similar misuse.

DeSantis did not dispute the report's legitimacy but said no laws were broken and vowed "consequences" for whoever leaked the sealed documents, previously calling scrutiny of Hope Florida politically motivated. Uthmeier, now attorney general and running for reelection with Trump's endorsement, called renewed scrutiny a "politically motivated hoax." Sen. Ashley Moody, attorney general during the settlement, was found to have known of and authorized the plan, though her office said it had no knowledge of how the funds would ultimately be spent. Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly called for the investigation to be reopened, making the case a flashpoint in Florida's 2026 elections.

Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis is reaching its conclusion with DeSantis notably withholding support from any candidate. Rep. Byron Donalds, endorsed by President Trump, remains the frontrunner, but DeSantis has publicly criticized him for not being "part of any of the victories" of recent years. Former state House Speaker Paul Renner, who campaigned for DeSantis' 2024 presidential bid, entered the race last fall only to have DeSantis say he was "not supporting" him and called his decision to run "ill-advised." Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, appointed by DeSantis last year and pledging to protect his legacy, has also gone unendorsed, and on the eve of the primary announced Florida emergency management director Kevin Guthrie as his running mate in an apparent bid to align himself with the DeSantis administration.

The rift follows DeSantis' rejected trial balloons for a run by his wife, First Lady Casey DeSantis, and Trump's early move to back Donalds. The outcome will shape Florida's political direction and signal the durability of DeSantis' influence within state GOP politics.

A ConsumerAffairs analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data ranks the Jacksonville metro area No. 2 among the 100 largest U.S. metros for property taxes rising faster than home values from 2022 to 2024. The typical homeowner's tax bill rose 21.7% while median home values increased 8.1%, a gap second only to Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida. Nationally, home values rose faster than taxes over the same period, though a five-year view shows Jacksonville home values up 63.1% since 2019, outpacing a 44.9% rise in taxes.

Florida's Amendment 3, needing 60% approval, would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 while cutting the non-homestead assessment-growth cap from 10% to 5%. Backed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, it has split Republicans and drawn opposition from police, firefighter, and county groups warning of billions in lost local revenue; proponents argue local governments can absorb cuts after years of rapid tax collection growth.

Orange County, Florida voters on Nov. 3 will pick a new mayor from Democrat Tiffany Moore Russell and Republican Chris Messina, while also voting on Amendment 3, a statewide measure to phase out property taxes on primary homes. Moore Russell opposes the amendment and says she'd cut vacant positions, review contracts and freeze hiring to offset losses; Messina supports it and favors zero-based budgeting and selling unused county assets. Analysts estimate the county could lose hundreds of millions in general fund and public safety tax revenue if the measure passes. Moore Russell led the August primary, and the race has become the costliest in county history.

Florida Republicans are scaling back expectations that a new, more favorable congressional map will translate into major House gains in 2026. The map, championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis and passed by the GOP-controlled legislature, aimed to push the party's current 20-8 delegation edge toward 24-4, despite lawsuits challenging it under Florida's anti-gerrymandering standards. Courts allowed the map to stand for 2026.

DeSantis, who is term-limited and leaving office in January, has acknowledged the political climate has shifted since his 2022 landslide, citing fallout from the Iran conflict, gas prices, and economic concerns weighing on Trump's standing in the state. Neither Trump nor DeSantis will appear on this year's ballot, removing a turnout driver Republicans relied on previously. One GOP operative said districts Trump carried by single digits in 2024 are now competitive, with financing and the strength of statewide candidates, including gubernatorial nominee Rep. Byron Donalds, likely to influence down-ballot outcomes. DeSantis has begun directing super PAC funds to congressional candidates in open and Democrat-held seats as the party works to defend its redistricting advantage.