Michigan Senate

New polling shows a close contest between Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson ahead of the midterms. A Marist University survey found Jackson narrowly ahead among likely voters, within the margin of error, while a recent Fox News poll showed the race tied and a Suffolk University poll also gave Jackson a slight edge. Election handicappers rate the contest a toss-up. Collins, seeking a sixth term, would become Maine's longest-serving senator if reelected. Jackson, a logger and former state senator, replaced earlier Democratic nominee Graham Platner and has gained endorsements from former diplomats as he works to build name recognition statewide.

Michigan's open U.S. Senate race, between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, has attracted roughly $181 million in advertising spending, making it the most expensive Senate contest in state history. The figure, tracked from January 2026 through Election Day on Nov. 3 and including both spent and reserved ads, ranks Michigan fourth nationally in total ad spending and seventh in per-capita spending. Ohio leads the country with about $407 million in Senate ad spending.

Republicans account for 58% of Michigan's ad total, a spending edge that has worried national Democrats, with much of the money coming from outside groups rather than the candidates themselves. The pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund has placed ads on televisions in bars across the state alongside a heavy presence during NFL and college football broadcasts. With Republicans holding a narrow 53-47 Senate majority, both parties view Michigan as a pivotal battleground that could help determine control of the chamber, drawing national money and attention to a single statewide race.

Michigan voters will choose between Democrat Jocelyn Benson, the secretary of state, and Republican John James, a U.S. House member, in the Nov. 3 gubernatorial election, with a televised debate set for Oct. 6. The two candidates diverge sharply across a wide range of policy areas, including health care, housing, energy costs, taxes and utility regulation. Benson has pledged an electricity cost freeze, a Prescription Drug Affordability Board and expanded housing tax credits, while James favors deregulation, increased utility competition and sweeping income tax cuts paired with a government spending audit.

The candidates also split on right-to-work repeal, Line 5 pipeline construction, tariffs on Canada, and their relationships with President Trump, who has endorsed James. On the 2020 election, Benson defends Michigan's results as secure while James has suggested he was "screwed" in his own Senate loss that year. Other flashpoints include transgender athletes in girls sports, abortion rights, data center moratoriums, gun policy, Flock camera regulations and expanding the state's Freedom of Information Act. If elected, Benson would extend Democratic control of the governorship, while James would become Michigan's first Black governor.

Genesee County voters will help decide 11 Michigan legislative contests in the Nov. 3 general election, covering four state Senate districts and seven state House districts. The field narrowed after the Aug. 4 primary, with several open seats created by term limits or incumbents seeking other offices.

Notable races include Senate District 22, where Democrat Robert Hower faces Republican Mike Murphy to replace term-limited-out Sen. Lana Theis; Senate District 23, pitting Republican Donni Steele against Democrat Greg Hill for the seat held by retiring Sen. Jim Runestad; and Senate District 26, where Democrat Brendan Johnson faces Republican Matthew Bierlein, who currently holds House District 97. In Senate District 27, Democratic incumbent John Cherry faces Republican Bill Bain. House races feature several incumbents defending seats, including rematches in Districts 68 and 69, along with an open contest in District 97 to replace Bierlein. The results will shape partisan control in several competitive Michigan legislative districts.

Pressure is building in Michigan over calls to suspend the state's 52.4-cent gas tax as pump prices remain elevated, averaging $4.63 per gallon as of late September, above the national average. Republican gubernatorial candidate John James urged Democrats to declare a state of emergency and suspend the tax, while Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks said a holiday could be considered when the Senate reconvenes October 1. House Speaker Matt Hall, a Republican, called the idea fiscally unserious but said he would put it to a vote and send it to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer if the Senate passes a bill.

Whitmer, who vetoed a similar suspension in 2022, has not stated a position. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson supports pausing the federal gas tax but opposes suspending the state tax, warning it would strain the budget. A three-month suspension could cost roughly $600 million in road funding, according to state fiscal analysts. Infrastructure groups oppose the move, citing long-term risks to road projects and funding mechanisms established last year.

David Jolly, the Democratic nominee for Florida governor, said he would welcome former Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign with him, even suggesting she "should have beaten" Donald Trump in 2024. Harris lost Florida to Trump by more than 13 points that year and has had mixed reception on the trail this cycle, embraced by some Democrats in Michigan and Georgia while others in Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas have kept their distance.

Jolly, a former Republican who left the GOP in 2018, has aligned with several progressive positions on guns, healthcare, abortion, DEI, and immigration, despite branding himself a moderate. He has also campaigned alongside Senate nominee Angie Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member. Jolly faces Rep. Byron Donalds in the general election; recent polling has shown a wide range of outcomes, from a narrow Jolly lead to a substantial Donalds advantage. The race is being closely watched as a test of Democratic strategy in a state Trump won decisively, and of Harris's political future ahead of 2026 and a possible 2028 run.

Some Michigan Republican officials and candidates are voicing concern about their party's prospects in the November election, citing surging gas and diesel prices linked to the war in Iran and signs of flagging GOP voter enthusiasm. Former state Rep. Pam Hornberger called the fight to keep the state House majority a "huge struggle" and said Republicans have little chance of flipping a key state Senate seat in suburban Detroit. A Marquette County GOP chairman described local volunteer enthusiasm as at "all time lows," and a former 5th District GOP chairman estimated a fifth of Trump's base may sit out the election or vote Democratic.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 58-52 state House majority, while Democrats control the state Senate 20-18. GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers has proposed suspending fuel taxes to ease costs. Other Republicans, including Rep. Mark Tisdel and former Rep. Rocky Raczkowski, offered more mixed assessments, acknowledging a difficult political environment tied to affordability concerns and the desire among voters for checks on unified Republican control in Washington.

A coalition of Michigan rabbis and Jewish leaders has launched a petition urging Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate nominee, to change his positions and rhetoric on Israel or risk losing Jewish voter support. The letter, signed by the president of the Michigan Board of Rabbis and 14 colleagues, does not name El-Sayed but is directed at him. It lists five "nonnegotiable" demands, including support for Jewish sovereignty in Israel, a two-state solution, and full participation of Jews in American political life.

El-Sayed, a vocal Israel critic who opposes its existence as a Jewish state, won a contentious primary against Rep. Haley Stevens after AIPAC's super PAC spent heavily against him. He has since apologized for past remarks and met with some rabbis, but reception remains mixed. His ties to streamer Hasan Piker have also drawn criticism. Michigan's Senate race, pitting El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers, is a key battleground that could determine Senate control as Sen. Gary Peters retires.