Which Senate Race Will Be Closer: Michigan or New Hampshire

Michigan's open U.S. Senate race, between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, has attracted roughly $181 million in advertising spending, making it the most expensive Senate contest in state history. The figure, tracked from January 2026 through Election Day on Nov. 3 and including both spent and reserved ads, ranks Michigan fourth nationally in total ad spending and seventh in per-capita spending. Ohio leads the country with about $407 million in Senate ad spending.

Republicans account for 58% of Michigan's ad total, a spending edge that has worried national Democrats, with much of the money coming from outside groups rather than the candidates themselves. The pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund has placed ads on televisions in bars across the state alongside a heavy presence during NFL and college football broadcasts. With Republicans holding a narrow 53-47 Senate majority, both parties view Michigan as a pivotal battleground that could help determine control of the chamber, drawing national money and attention to a single statewide race.

Some Michigan Republican officials and candidates are voicing concern about their party's prospects in the November election, citing surging gas and diesel prices linked to the war in Iran and signs of flagging GOP voter enthusiasm. Former state Rep. Pam Hornberger called the fight to keep the state House majority a "huge struggle" and said Republicans have little chance of flipping a key state Senate seat in suburban Detroit. A Marquette County GOP chairman described local volunteer enthusiasm as at "all time lows," and a former 5th District GOP chairman estimated a fifth of Trump's base may sit out the election or vote Democratic.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 58-52 state House majority, while Democrats control the state Senate 20-18. GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers has proposed suspending fuel taxes to ease costs. Other Republicans, including Rep. Mark Tisdel and former Rep. Rocky Raczkowski, offered more mixed assessments, acknowledging a difficult political environment tied to affordability concerns and the desire among voters for checks on unified Republican control in Washington.

Michigan Democrats officially nominated Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson for governor and Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks for lieutenant governor at the party's nominating convention in Lansing. Brinks faced no challengers and was confirmed by voice vote, setting up a Benson-Brinks ticket that would make history as the state's first all-woman governor-lieutenant governor pairing if elected. The ticket will face Republican nominee U.S. Rep. John James and running mate state Rep. Jay DeBoyer in the November general election.

Brinks used her acceptance speech to tie James to President Trump's tariff policies, while James's campaign called the Democratic slate the "most radical" in state history. Delegates also finalized previously endorsed nominees, including Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist for secretary of state and Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit for attorney general. Attorney General Dana Nessel skipped the event, citing concerns about antisemitism within the party. The general election is set for Nov. 3, 2026.

Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) said she hopes progressive streamer Hasan Piker stays out of Michigan through Election Day, distancing herself from the controversy surrounding him. Piker has campaigned alongside Michigan Senate nominee Abdul el Sayed and drew bipartisan condemnation after suggesting last week that American Jews could face violence if they are perceived as uniquely tied to Israel's actions.

Dingell, seeking a seventh House term, told CNN she "strongly disagrees" with Piker's comments on Israel and past remarks on sexual violence, calling them "inexcusable." She said it's on el Sayed to make clear he doesn't share Piker's views. El Sayed has said only his campaign speaks for him, without fully condemning Piker, and has tried to redirect focus to economic issues. The episode underscores tension within Michigan's Democratic primary field ahead of the general election, as party figures navigate Piker's polarizing online influence and its potential impact on competitive 2026 races.

New Hampshire Republicans voted Tuesday in an eight-person Senate primary dominated by two former officeholders: ex-Sen. John Sununu and ex-Sen. Scott Brown, both making comeback bids decades after their prior tenures. Sununu, who last appeared on a ballot 18 years ago, benefits from voter recognition of his younger brother Chris, the recent New Hampshire governor, and led in polls and fundraising after securing President Trump's endorsement despite past criticism of him. Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and Trump's onetime ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, trailed but argued his independence from the party establishment and lack of major endorsements made him a stronger general-election candidate. Notably, Trump's endorsement played a smaller role than in many other GOP primaries this cycle.

The winner faces the Democratic primary victor, a contest between U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, backed by party leadership, and progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. The general election, replacing retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, is expected to be competitive given national dissatisfaction with the political status quo and could factor into control of the Senate.