Kansas 3rd Congressional District House Race 2026: Who Will Win

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Missouri's 5th Congressional District, anchored in the Kansas City metro, will use the 2022 map rather than the 2025 redistricting plan for the November 2026 election, after the state Supreme Court ruled on the matter following legal challenges. The district, traditionally Democratic-leaning, pits longtime incumbent Rep. Emanuel Cleaver against Republican state Sen. Rick Brattin, who sued over primary disruptions caused by the map dispute, and Libertarian Randy Langkraehr. Cleaver, in office since 2005, has won previous races by wide margins, while Brattin is campaigning as a Trump ally focused on border security and spending cuts. The redistricting fight had aimed to dilute Kansas City's Democratic base across neighboring districts.

Kansas House District 19, covering parts of Overland Park, Prairie Village and Leawood in Johnson County, will see a rematch of its 2024 race. Democratic incumbent Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who has held the seat since 2012 and switched parties from Republican to Democrat in 2018, faces Republican challenger Mark Hermes again after defeating him previously. A win would give Clayton a seventh term. Clayton's platform emphasizes government transparency, education funding, tax relief and reproductive access, while Hermes centers his campaign on judicial accountability, court reform and child welfare policy, including support for electing rather than appointing Kansas judges.

General elections are set for Nov. 3, with most polling locations open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Kansas, which has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, has become an unexpected battleground as megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton mounts a competitive challenge against Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. At least one recent poll showed Hamilton with a narrow lead, prompting race-rating shifts from safe Republican to competitive. His campaign taps into farm-belt frustration over tariffs and rising costs that has also unsettled GOP prospects in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

Hamilton, founder of the country's largest Methodist congregation, casts himself as a moderate and independent-minded Democrat, criticizing Trump-era policies on tariffs, health care, and immigration while promising a less partisan tone. Marshall and Republican surrogates, including Vice President JD Vance and Senator Ted Cruz, have attacked Hamilton's church and theology, drawing rebukes from Methodist clergy. Marshall also faces scrutiny over lawsuits against patients for unpaid medical bills. Trump's approval in the state has slipped, adding to signs of Republican vulnerability in a seat long considered secure.

President Donald Trump defended Sen. Roger Marshall's record of suing patients over unpaid medical bills, saying the former OB-GYN could have faced arrest had he not taken more than 700 patients to court. Trump also criticized Marshall's Democratic challenger, the Rev. Adam Hamilton, and previewed a campaign rally in Marshall's honor.

Separately, Interstate 670 through downtown Kansas City will close in December and stay shut until September 2028 as construction begins on the Roy Blunt Luminary Park, a destination park planned atop the highway between Wyandotte Street and Grand Boulevard. The first phase covers roughly half the tunnel alongside a park block featuring walking paths, art installations, performance space and play equipment.

Other regional news: Kansas City could tie a 1899 heat record near 91 degrees Tuesday before severe storms bring damaging winds, hail and flooding risk; the Arabia Steamboat Museum will close Nov. 13 after 35 years; and early in-person voting for Missouri's Nov. 3 election begins Oct. 20 in Clay, Jackson and Platte counties.

With just over three weeks until Election Day, Kansas election officials are preparing for unusually high turnout in a midterm cycle, driven largely by a competitive U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. Pollsters have called the contest too close to call, prompting Johnson County — one of the state's largest and most populous counties — to plan for possible recount procedures, including deploying up to 300 poll workers under tight security and a five-day completion window.

Officials there say they're planning for turnout levels typically seen in presidential elections, citing heavy national media attention on the race. Johnson and Sedgwick counties together represent roughly 60-65% of Kansas's electorate. Marshall launched a six-day statewide bus tour, while Hamilton focused on voter registration efforts in Lawrence. The voter registration deadline falls just before early voting begins, which marks its 30th year in the state.

The Kansas Senate race between Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton is heading into its final stretch, with President Trump set to campaign for Marshall in Wichita and a candidate debate scheduled in Kansas City. Analysts say the contest hinges on the longstanding divide between suburban Johnson County and rural western Kansas. With Republicans holding a registration advantage statewide, Hamilton would need a landslide win in Johnson County, exceeding Gov. Laura Kelly's 2022 margin there, while limiting losses elsewhere. Marshall's path relies on strong rural turnout. No Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat since 1932, though some observers consider the race competitive.

With less than three weeks until Election Day, the Kansas U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton hinges on a familiar divide: suburban Johnson County versus rural western Kansas. Political scientist Bob Beatty of Washburn University notes Kansas voter registration leans about 45% Republican and 25% Democratic, with the rest unaffiliated, explaining why statewide wins are historically difficult for Democrats.

Johnson and Sedgwick counties account for nearly 65% of registered voters statewide. Beatty says Hamilton would need to win Johnson County by more than 20 points, surpassing Gov. Laura Kelly's 2022 margin there, while limiting losses elsewhere; Marshall's strategy relies on driving rural turnout. No Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat since 1932. President Trump is set to visit Wichita, and the candidates face a debate, ahead of an election Beatty calls competitive, giving Hamilton a real but uphill chance.

U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, the Kansas Republican facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in the Nov. 3 Senate election, is scheduled to speak at a Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce legislative forum on Oct. 16 at the Great Overland Station, with tickets ranging from $70 to $95. The event comes about three weeks before Election Day.

A separate Oct. 20 appearance planned at Zarda Bar-B-Q in Lenexa, part of a Johnson County Republicans luncheon, was relocated after a leaked flyer — which warned attendees not to share the event on social media for "congressional security protocols" — became public. Zarda's leadership said staff were unaware a senator would be speaking and stressed the restaurant is non-partisan. Johnson County Republicans did not respond to comment requests.

Marshall has not held a public town hall since March of last year, citing safety concerns, drawing criticism including a petition delivery earlier this year demanding he hold statewide town halls. He and Hamilton debated at the Kansas State Fair on Sept. 12.