Kansas’s 2nd Congressional District House Race 2026
Kansas’s 2nd Congressional District, covering Topeka and much of eastern Kansas, holds its U.S. House election in November 2026. The seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles but has drawn competitive challenges before. Voters will choose a representative for a two-year term in a district that mixes suburban, rural, and small-city communities.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of swing districts, and KS-02’s mixed political character makes it worth watching nationally. The outcome will shape which party holds sway over committee agendas and legislative priorities in Congress. Local issues like agriculture policy, infrastructure, and economic conditions in the district will also factor into voter decisions.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is binary: does the Republican or Democratic candidate win KS-02, with separate contracts also tracking individual named candidates. This isolates partisan control of the seat from broader national narratives about the House majority. Shifts in trader positioning can reflect candidate announcements, fundraising news, or redistricting developments well before Election Day.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Congress -
Redistricting -
Kansas -
Topeka, Kansas -
Kansas's 2nd congressional district -
Derek Schmidt -
Don Cooper
Total Volume
$70.2k
Kalshi $39.4k · Polymarket $30.8k
Leading Market
Derek Schmidt
Kalshi 81% · Polymarket 80%
Derek Schmidt Volume
$33.7k
Kalshi $21.1k · Polymarket $12.7k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek SchmidtRepublican Party | 81.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Derek Schmidt on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 80.0¢ | 5% | , trade Derek Schmidt on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Don CooperDemocratic Party | 20.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Don Cooper on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 22.0¢ | 5% | , trade Don Cooper on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek SchmidtRepublican Party | $33,748.22 | ||
| Don CooperDemocratic Party | $36,447.74 |