Kansas Senate winner?
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Senate -
General election -
Primary election -
United States midterm election -
Kansas
Total Volume
$11.2m
Kalshi $7.2m · Polymarket $3.9m
Leading Market
Adam Hamilton
Kalshi 51% · Polymarket 53%
Adam Hamilton Volume
$6.3m
Kalshi $4m · Polymarket $2.4m
Adam Hamilton 24h Change
+12.00%
Kalshi +12.00% · Polymarket +3.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam HamiltonDemocratic Party | 51.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
53.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Roger MarshallRepublican Party | 50.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
50.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Kansas Senate race: Roger Marshall seeks second term against Adam Hamilton
PN Team • 1 week ago
Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is running for a second U.S. Senate term, facing Democratic challenger and pastor Adam Hamilton after winning his August primary. A former OB/GYN from Great Bend who delivered thousands of babies before serving in the U.S. House and defeating Barbara Bollier for Senate in 2020, Marshall sits on the Agriculture, Finance, HELP, and Budget committees and has backed legislation including the Laken Riley Act, HALT Fentanyl Act, and Natural Gas Tax Repeal Act. Marshall and Hamilton are set to hold their second debate Wednesday, Oct. 21, ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, with early voting beginning Oct. 27 and results certified by Dec. 1.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Kansas The state is the setting for the Senate race, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Marshall is identified as a Republican senator seeking reelection, a neutral factual mention.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned as the chamber where Marshall previously served, a neutral factual detail.
- United States Senate The article centers on Marshall's Senate seat and reelection bid, a neutral factual context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Adam Hamilton is identified as the Democratic challenger, a neutral factual reference.
Related Events
Elections
Marshall pays overdue bakery bill amid tight Kansas Senate race
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has settled a six-year-old unpaid bill with a Kansas bakery after its owner, Holly Thomas, publicly said she would not vote for him over the debt. Thomas made cookies, brownies, and cupcakes for Marshall's 2020 primary election watch party but said she was never paid the $678.75 owed, despite repeated attempts to contact his campaign during a difficult early period for her small business amid the pandemic. After Thomas's social media post drew attention, Marshall said his campaign had no explanation for the lapse, apologized, and paid her $1,300—double the original amount. Thomas confirmed the invoice was finally settled.
The episode comes as Marshall faces an unexpectedly competitive reelection fight against Democrat Adam Hamilton, with a recent New York Times/Siena poll showing the race tied. Marshall has also faced criticism over a report that he sued hundreds of patients for unpaid medical debt while working as an obstetrician-gynecologist, a story Democrats have used in campaign ads.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as using Marshall's medical debt lawsuits in campaign ads, a tangential political reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Marshall's Republican affiliation is noted mainly as context for the competitive Senate race rather than a reflection on the party itself.
- Kansas Kansas is mentioned as the location of the race and the bakery, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is referenced only as the context for Marshall's reelection race, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Kansas Senator Roger Marshall Accused of Stiffing Bakery Over Unpaid Campaign Bill
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Holly Thomas, owner of Holly's Sweet Treats in Hutchinson, Kansas, says Sen. Roger Marshall's 2020 primary campaign never paid a $678.75 invoice for cookies and treats ordered for an election watch party. In a Facebook post published October 8, Thomas said she spent nearly a year trying to collect payment through calls and emails but never received a response or the money owed. She said the unpaid order came at a difficult time for her small, newly opened bakery during the pandemic, when "every single dollar mattered."
The story has drawn renewed attention to Marshall, a physician-turned-senator with an estimated net worth of $7.2 million, amid separate reporting on his past medical practice pursuing patients over far smaller unpaid debts. Critics have pointed to the contrast as an example of perceived double standards among wealthy officials. Marshall's office has not issued a public response to Thomas's account.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned only incidentally as Marshall's position, with no direct reputational impact.
- Kansas Kansas is mentioned as the senator's state and bakery's location, a neutral factual reference.
Related Events
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Elections
Kansas officials brace for possible recount in tight Senate race
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
With just over three weeks until Election Day, Kansas election officials are preparing for unusually high turnout in a midterm cycle, driven largely by a competitive U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. Pollsters have called the contest too close to call, prompting Johnson County — one of the state's largest and most populous counties — to plan for possible recount procedures, including deploying up to 300 poll workers under tight security and a five-day completion window.
Officials there say they're planning for turnout levels typically seen in presidential elections, citing heavy national media attention on the race. Johnson and Sedgwick counties together represent roughly 60-65% of Kansas's electorate. Marshall launched a six-day statewide bus tour, while Hamilton focused on voter registration efforts in Lawrence. The voter registration deadline falls just before early voting begins, which marks its 30th year in the state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Johnson County, Kansas Portrayed as proactively preparing for high turnout and possible recount, a neutral-to-mildly positive depiction of competent election administration.
- Kansas Depicted as the setting for a competitive, closely watched election with no negative implications.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of candidate Adam Hamilton in a factual, balanced context.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Sen. Roger Marshall in a neutral, factual context.
- United States Senate Referenced as the body for which the Senate race is being contested, purely factual.
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Elections
Kansas citizenship-voting amendment splits Secretary of State candidates
PN Team • 1 month ago
A constitutional amendment on Kansas's November general election ballot is a flashpoint in the race to succeed outgoing Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Passed by lawmakers in March 2025, the measure would change the constitution's voting language from "all" U.S. citizens may vote to "only" U.S. citizens may vote in Kansas elections.
Republican candidate Pat Proctor, a state representative who sponsored the amendment, argues it enshrines an important deterrent, noting that four non-citizens have been charged with illegal voting in Kansas according to the Secretary of State's office. Democratic candidate Jennifer Day calls the change redundant and unnecessary, warning it could open the door for the legislature to further restrict voting access later. Both candidates say they support secure elections but differ sharply on whether the amendment is needed.
The amendment and the Secretary of State race will both appear on the Nov. 3 general election ballot, making the outcome a test of how Kansas voters view citizenship-based voting restrictions and election administration priorities.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidate Jennifer Day is presented making a reasoned, balanced case against the amendment without notable reputational harm or benefit to the party.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidate Pat Proctor is shown advocating for the amendment in a neutral, policy-focused manner.
- Kansas Kansas is the location of the election and amendment debate, mentioned factually without reputational spin.
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Elections
Kansas House District 19 rematch pits incumbent Clayton against challenger Hermes
PN Team • 1 week ago
Kansas House District 19, covering parts of Overland Park, Prairie Village and Leawood in Johnson County, will see a rematch of its 2024 race. Democratic incumbent Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who has held the seat since 2012 and switched parties from Republican to Democrat in 2018, faces Republican challenger Mark Hermes again after defeating him previously. A win would give Clayton a seventh term. Clayton's platform emphasizes government transparency, education funding, tax relief and reproductive access, while Hermes centers his campaign on judicial accountability, court reform and child welfare policy, including support for electing rather than appointing Kansas judges.
General elections are set for Nov. 3, with most polling locations open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Clayton's party affiliation in a neutral, factual context.
- Johnson County, Kansas Named as the county containing the district, a factual geographic reference.
- Kansas Mentioned as the state context for the election, purely factual.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as Hermes's party affiliation.
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Elections
Marshall’s Topeka appearance highlights Kansas Senate race tensions
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, the Kansas Republican facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in the Nov. 3 Senate election, is scheduled to speak at a Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce legislative forum on Oct. 16 at the Great Overland Station, with tickets ranging from $70 to $95. The event comes about three weeks before Election Day.
A separate Oct. 20 appearance planned at Zarda Bar-B-Q in Lenexa, part of a Johnson County Republicans luncheon, was relocated after a leaked flyer — which warned attendees not to share the event on social media for "congressional security protocols" — became public. Zarda's leadership said staff were unaware a senator would be speaking and stressed the restaurant is non-partisan. Johnson County Republicans did not respond to comment requests.
Marshall has not held a public town hall since March of last year, citing safety concerns, drawing criticism including a petition delivery earlier this year demanding he hold statewide town halls. He and Hamilton debated at the Kansas State Fair on Sept. 12.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Johnson County, Kansas Associated with the relocated event and the unresponsive county Republican group, a mildly negative tangential mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as Marshall's party and tied to a luncheon event that drew scrutiny for secrecy.
- Topeka, Kansas Host city for the chamber forum, a neutral factual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Marshall's opponent's party affiliation in a neutral, factual context.
- Kansas Referenced as the state where the Senate race and events take place, a neutral factual mention.
- United States Senate Referenced as Marshall's chamber of office in a neutral, factual description.
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Elections
Kansas Senate Race Emerges as Surprise Democratic Opportunity
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, is emerging as an unexpectedly competitive race ahead of the November 3 election. Pastor Adam Hamilton, a moderate Democrat with a large congregation and significant name recognition, is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall, a close ally of President Trump.
Democrats see an opening driven by rural frustration with Trump's tariffs and economic policies that have disproportionately affected farming communities, along with broader unease over the Iran conflict. Trump carried Kansas with 57% of the vote just two years ago, underscoring how significant an upset would be if Hamilton were to win. The race is being watched closely as a potential bellwether for midterm sentiment in traditionally red, agriculture-heavy states, and as a test of whether economic discontent can overcome a century of Republican dominance in Kansas Senate contests.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The party is portrayed as gaining an unexpected competitive opportunity in a traditionally red state.
- Republican Party (United States) The party's incumbent senator faces an unexpectedly tough race amid voter discontent over Trump's policies.
- Kansas Kansas is discussed neutrally as the site of a historically significant political shift.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the body whose seat is being contested.
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Elections
Kansas Senate Race: Hamilton Challenges Marshall Amid Transgender Rights Dispute
PN Team • 3 days ago
Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor challenging Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, has publicly defended transgender people against what he calls political targeting, framing his stance as rooted in his Christian faith. Marshall has pushed legislation to codify binary legal definitions of sex, and Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance at a Marshall rally, have criticized Hamilton's church for sponsoring Kansas City PrideFest. Hamilton argues marginalized groups are being turned into campaign issues for political gain and calls for treating people humanely regardless of gender identity. The exchange highlights how LGBTQ+ issues, particularly transgender rights, remain a flashpoint in the Kansas Senate race and broader 2026 midterm campaigns.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Party members, including Vance, portrayed as criticizing Hamilton's church over PrideFest sponsorship.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Hamilton's party affiliation in a balanced campaign dispute story.
- Kansas Named as the location of the contested Senate race without specific portrayal.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned only as the site of PrideFest sponsored by Hamilton's church.
- United States Senate Referenced only as the context of the Kansas Senate race being contested.
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Elections
Former Kansas Senator Nancy Kassebaum Baker Dies at 94
PN Team • 2 months ago
Former U.S. Sen. Nancy Kassebaum Baker, the first woman elected to represent Kansas in the Senate, has died at 94. Her son said she died Friday of natural causes.
A Republican, Kassebaum Baker won her first Senate race in 1978 with nearly 54% of the vote, defeating Democrat William R. Roy. She was the only woman serving in the Senate at the time and the first elected to the chamber without following a husband into office. Her support grew over three terms, winning reelection in 1984 with about 76% of the vote and again in 1990 with nearly 74%. She declined to seek reelection in 1996, leaving office in January 1997 after 18 years, and later remained active in public service through advisory committees and boards.
Kansas leaders remembered her as a principled, independent voice. Gov. Laura Kelly said "Kansas lost part of its soul," while Sens. Jerry Moran and Roger Marshall praised her integrity and trailblazing legacy.
Sentiment
- Kansas Kansas is honored through its long association with a respected, trailblazing senator and the governor's tribute.
- United States Senate The Senate is the institution she served in and helped diversify as a trailblazing member, reflecting positively on the body's history.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party of the opponent she defeated, a factual detail with no reputational charge.
- Republican Party (United States) Noted as Kassebaum Baker's party affiliation, a neutral factual reference.
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Kansas Senate Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
47%
Marshall, 1+ pts
Vol $7.6k
Kansas Senate Race: How Many Voters Will Turn Out
Leading:
93%
Above 800K
Vol $0.20
Kansas Governor Race: Who Will Win in 2026
Leading:
72.5%
Ty Masterson
Vol $1.2m
Kansas Senate Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
48%
Hamilton, 1+ pts
Vol $4.9k
Kansas 2026 Governor and Senate Race: Party Combination Outcome
Leading:
44%
Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win
Vol $38.5k
Which Will Be Closer: Kansas or Nebraska Senate Race
Leading:
63%
Nebraska US Senate
Vol $5.2k
Kansas’s 4th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
96%
Ron Estes
Vol $36.6k
Kansas’s 2nd Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
79.5%
Derek Schmidt
Vol $12.7k