Kansas Governor Race: Who Will Win in 2026

Kansas has split its governorships evenly since 1960, with seven Republicans and seven Democrats holding the office despite the state's strong Republican lean in federal races. No party has won three consecutive gubernatorial elections since four-year terms began in 1974, a streak now being tested by Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher's challenge to Republican state Sen. Ty Masterson, as term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, departs after two wins.

Several past races were decided by narrow margins, including a sub-4,000-vote finish in 1974 and Kelly's roughly 22,000-vote win in 2022. Since 1990, no sitting Kansas governor has lost a reelection bid, underscoring the historical stakes of this year's contest.

Former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves, a Republican, has endorsed Democrat Adam Hamilton in his challenge against Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). In a video shared by Hamilton's campaign, Graves said Marshall "has turned his back on Kansas" over his six years in office and praised Hamilton, senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, as a figure of "kindness, humility and service." Graves cited rising partisan gridlock as reason for Kansas to "do something different."

Graves, who governed Kansas from 1995 to 2003, has previously crossed party lines to back Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in both her 2018 and 2022 campaigns. Hamilton is seeking to become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas since 1932. Election forecasters currently favor Marshall, giving him roughly an 80% chance of winning, and his campaign holds a substantial fundraising advantage heading into the race.

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly has ordered flags flown at half-staff statewide from sunup to sundown this Friday, marking the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Kelly's office said the gesture honors the nearly 3,000 Americans killed and thousands injured, as well as the more than 400 first responders who died while saving lives that day.

President Donald Trump separately issued a proclamation designating the anniversary as "Patriot Day, 2026," directing federal departments and agencies to fly flags at half-staff in honor of the 2,977 victims. Trump's proclamation also recognized first responders who continue to suffer health effects from their service and members of the Armed Forces who have served in the years since the attacks. The observances reflect ongoing national commemoration efforts tied to the milestone anniversary.

Kansas House District 19, covering parts of Overland Park, Prairie Village and Leawood in Johnson County, will see a rematch of its 2024 race. Democratic incumbent Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who has held the seat since 2012 and switched parties from Republican to Democrat in 2018, faces Republican challenger Mark Hermes again after defeating him previously. A win would give Clayton a seventh term. Clayton's platform emphasizes government transparency, education funding, tax relief and reproductive access, while Hermes centers his campaign on judicial accountability, court reform and child welfare policy, including support for electing rather than appointing Kansas judges.

General elections are set for Nov. 3, with most polling locations open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper holds a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the race to fill the state's open US Senate seat, with an October SurveyUSA poll showing him ahead by 14 points. Cooper, who never lost an election in four decades of public service, has centered his campaign on affordability, pointing to his years-long push to expand Medicaid and attacking GOP-driven healthcare premium increases tied to Trump's tax and budget legislation. Senate Republicans' top super PAC has pulled TV ads from the state to shore up other races, while Trump plans to rally for Whatley. Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to win control, making North Carolina pivotal, and some see Cooper's approach as a model other moderate Democrats could replicate.

David Jolly, the Democratic nominee for Florida governor, said he would welcome former Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign with him, even suggesting she "should have beaten" Donald Trump in 2024. Harris lost Florida to Trump by more than 13 points that year and has had mixed reception on the trail this cycle, embraced by some Democrats in Michigan and Georgia while others in Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas have kept their distance.

Jolly, a former Republican who left the GOP in 2018, has aligned with several progressive positions on guns, healthcare, abortion, DEI, and immigration, despite branding himself a moderate. He has also campaigned alongside Senate nominee Angie Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member. Jolly faces Rep. Byron Donalds in the general election; recent polling has shown a wide range of outcomes, from a narrow Jolly lead to a substantial Donalds advantage. The race is being closely watched as a test of Democratic strategy in a state Trump won decisively, and of Harris's political future ahead of 2026 and a possible 2028 run.

Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Kansas, said he would not support Sen. Charles Schumer's bid to remain Senate Democratic leader, citing a need for "fresh ideas" and "fresh people." Hamilton, a Methodist pastor and former Republican running as a centrist against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, made the comments Sunday on ABC's "This Week." He has held a slight edge in recent polling, fueling Democratic hopes of flipping the seat as part of a path back to a Senate majority.

No Democrat has formally challenged Schumer's leadership, but Hamilton named Sens. Tim Kaine, Mark Kelly, and Elissa Slotkin as senators he respects who could fill the role. He also pointed to Vice President J.D. Vance's recent campaign visit to Kansas for Marshall as evidence Republicans are worried about the race. Hamilton further distanced himself from national Democratic positioning, saying he opposes biological men competing in women's sports while criticizing Republican rhetoric he called fearmongering toward transgender people.