New York’s 18th Congressional District: Who Will Win the House Seat

Several New York Democrats running in competitive House races are putting distance between themselves and Gov. Kathy Hochul weeks before Election Day. Rep. Tom Suozzi skipped a Hochul campaign stop on Long Island, citing a scheduling conflict, while Rep. Laura Gillen attended. In New York's 17th District, challenger Cait Conley was caught on video agreeing with GOP Rep. Mike Lawler that "Hochul has got to go," later calling Hochul to smooth things over. Blake Gendebien, running in the 21st District, declined to say if he'd support Hochul. Recent Siena polling shows Hochul's favorability underwater and her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman narrowing in suburban and upstate areas, reviving concerns about coattail effects seen in 2022.

The Rockland County Republican Committee received a $138,000 contribution from businessman Jack Goldenberg this year, the largest single donation in the committee's records over two decades, according to state campaign finance filings. The donation lands in a pivotal election cycle, as Rockland County anchors one of the nation's most closely watched House races between Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who also chairs the county GOP, and Democratic challenger Cait Conley.

Goldenberg has limited political giving history but previously donated six figures to national Republican committees. His business dealings have drawn legal scrutiny, including a 2020 wrongful-termination ruling against his company and a Portuguese investigation into alleged market manipulation tied to his pharmaceutical firm, Chartwell Pharmaceuticals. A local Democratic candidate has also tied Goldenberg to a contested warehouse development, which he denies involvement in.

The flap underscores escalating money battles in the Lawler-Conley contest, where Conley reported raising $5 million last quarter and outside groups have already spent more than $20 million on advertising, with Republicans currently holding the spending edge.

Control of the U.S. House this fall hinges on a map of roughly three dozen to 50 competitive races, with Democrats needing a net gain of just three seats to win the majority. Historically, the president's party has gained House seats in a midterm only twice since 1946, and Democrats are favored by generic-ballot polling and President Trump's low approval ratings, though analysts note Republican gerrymandering has made more Democratic-held seats competitive, offsetting some of that advantage. GOP leaders point to legislative wins and plan to tie Democrats to the party's left flank.

Key races include New York's 17th District (Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley), Long Island's 3rd and 4th Districts, New Jersey's 7th, Ohio's 9th and 7th, California's 22nd and 48th, Arizona's 1st, and Virginia's 2nd. A House flip would make Hakeem Jeffries speaker and could block Trump's agenda while enabling investigative oversight.

New York political leaders are calling on the federal government to act quickly on artificial intelligence oversight, following warnings from AI lab CEOs about potential risks from unchecked development. Mayor Zohran Mamdani called recent AI warnings "incredibly alarming" and said the city would explore protective measures, while Gov. Kathy Hochul urged Washington to set national standards prioritizing public safety over the race to build more powerful AI systems. President Trump has dismissed such concerns as a "hoax" and opposes new regulation, citing competition with China.

New York City and State have already taken steps, including the RAISE Act, a one-year data center moratorium, and a ban on AI chatbots for young students, but a state comptroller audit and a city public advocate report both found more oversight is needed. The debate has also become a flashpoint in competitive congressional races, with data center policy emerging as an attack line, and Assemblymember Alex Bores launching a multimillion-dollar push to unify Democrats around AI regulation.

Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon, speaking for county executives statewide, has pressed Gov. Kathy Hochul to follow through on repealing New York's 2000-era sales tax exemption for internet data centers, calling it outdated for today's hyperscale facilities. McMahon, who heads the New York State County Executives' Association, wants the repeal included in Hochul's upcoming state budget proposal, arguing developers should negotiate incentives locally rather than claim exemptions automatically. Niagara County officials have said a major local data center claims the exemption, costing the county millions. Separately, Onondaga County has hired consultant CPL to study data centers' local impacts, with results expected by mid-2027, as officials weigh a proposed project in Lysander.

A powerful early-season nor'easter battered the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend of Sept. 25-28, prompting states of emergency in New York (Long Island, New York City, Westchester County) and eight New Jersey counties under Govs. Kathy Hochul and Mikie Sherrill. The storm brought tropical-storm-force winds up to 70 mph, coastal flooding, and heavy rain from Massachusetts Bay to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, submerging major roadways on Long Island and in Queens under as much as two feet of water.

More than 130,000 utility customers lost power across the region. In Orange County, New York, utilities Orange and Rockland and Central Hudson mobilized crews to restore service, with Central Hudson citing Ulster County as hardest hit. By Sept. 28, most customers had power restored, though thousands remained without electricity. Rainfall varied widely, from just over an inch in Orange County to nearly 3.7 inches in Suffolk County, while the Neversink River saw a sharp rise in flow. Wind speeds and river levels were gradually returning to seasonal norms by Sunday.

New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.

Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.

Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.

Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.