Who Will Win New York’s 11th Congressional District House Race
New York’s 11th Congressional District, covering Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn, is up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections. The seat has swung between parties in recent cycles and remains one of the more competitive House districts in a heavily Democratic state. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the seat as the election approaches.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of NY-11 carries weight beyond the district itself, as narrow margins in the House often hinge on a handful of swing seats like this one. The race reflects broader questions about voter sentiment in suburban and working-class New York communities. Local issues such as public safety, affordability, and national political trends will shape turnout and outcome.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a crowded field of potential candidates into a binary-style question: which party, or which individual, ultimately claims the seat. Separate contracts isolate specific contenders alongside broader party-control questions, letting traders express views on both the primary field and the general election. This structure captures shifting campaign dynamics as candidates emerge, drop out, or gain momentum ahead of November 2026.
Related terms
Total Volume
$79.7k
Kalshi $45k · Polymarket $34.7k
Leading Market
Nicole Malliotakis
Kalshi 92% · Polymarket 92%
Nicole Malliotakis Volume
$48.5k
Kalshi $16.9k · Polymarket $31.6k
Nicole Malliotakis 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi +0.40% · Polymarket +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicole MalliotakisRepublican Party | 92.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Nicole Malliotakis on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 92.0¢ | 5% | , trade Nicole Malliotakis on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Michael D. EllisonDemocratic Party | 8.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Michael D. Ellison on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Mike DeCillisDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 9.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mike DeCillis on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicole MalliotakisRepublican Party | $48,475.81 | ||
| Michael D. EllisonDemocratic Party | $28,158.93 | No market | |
| Mike DeCillisDemocratic Party | $3,101.29 | No market |