Florida’s 13th District House Race: Who Will Win

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has named 17 Florida legislative races as top targets ahead of the November election, including three in the Tampa Bay area, as Democrats try to build on recent special election wins and chip away at the Republican supermajority in Tallahassee. State Sen. Brian Nathan, who flipped Senate District 14 in a March special election, will again face former Republican Rep. Josie Tomkow. Other contested races include Luis Salazar challenging Dan Weldon for a Hillsborough House seat and Lindsay Polega-Quigley defending a Pinellas district against Melissa Rutland, with both Democrats emphasizing affordability, housing, and insurance costs.

Republicans, who hold a roughly 1.5 million voter registration edge statewide, say they remain unified after two contentious legislative sessions and are confident they will keep control. Analysts note that while Democrats are unlikely to break the GOP supermajority this cycle, they could erode Republican margins and voter discipline, with a fuller challenge to Republican dominance likely requiring multiple additional election cycles through 2028.

St. Petersburg, Florida voters cast ballots Tuesday to decide whether incumbent Mayor Ken Welch earns a second term or a challenger takes over city hall. Welch, in office since January 2022, is campaigning on housing and public safety successes but faces criticism over hurricane recovery, water billing errors, and a collapsed ballpark deal.

His challengers include former Governor and Congressman Charlie Crist, Councilwoman Brandi Gabbard, former NAACP St. Pete president Maria Scruggs, former fire chief Jim Large, and neighborhood leader Kevin Batdorf. Crist, an early polling frontrunner, is emphasizing affordability, education, and dissatisfaction with the city's response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Batdorf has built momentum criticizing the administration's storm response, while Gabbard focuses on infrastructure and utility costs. Large points to his tenure as fire chief despite past controversy over workplace conduct complaints, and Scruggs emphasizes community partnerships for economic growth.

If no candidate wins a majority Tuesday, the race advances to a runoff decided in November's general election.

With about four weeks until Election Day, Florida's 13th congressional district remains one of the cycle's most closely watched races. Recent polling from Fox News and Inside Elections shows the seat shifting from "likely Republican" to "leaning Republican," signaling a tighter contest than previously expected.

Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, who has held the seat since 2022, is campaigning on an anti-corruption record, citing her push to release Epstein-related files and efforts to ban congressional insider trading. Democratic challenger Leela Gray, a retired brigadier general, argues Luna's trading-ban proposal is incomplete and is calling for a broader ban on stock trading, prediction-market betting, and donor-linked investments across all three branches of government. Gray has accused Luna of conflicts of interest tied to a donor's oil company, while Luna has countered that Gray has downplayed her own financial ties to pharmaceutical and banking interests. Both campaigns deny the other's claims as voters prepare to decide the race.

A Democratic-backed super PAC has poured $2 million into ads attacking Florida Sen. Ashley Moody over her record on releasing Jeffrey Epstein's files, featuring survivor Marina Lacerda questioning Moody's priorities. The ad notes Moody joined other Republicans in blocking a September 2025 measure tied to the defense budget, but omits that the Senate later approved a standalone release bill by unanimous consent. The National Republican Senatorial Committee called the ads false and misleading, saying Moody ultimately supported transparency legislation. Epstein-related ads have run in 63 congressional races nationally, totaling $76 million.

With Election Day days away, Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who accuses Moody of refusing to debate and of involvement in misappropriating $10 million in Medicaid funds, which Moody denies. Moody has campaigned with gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, branding Nixon a communist, a label Nixon rejects.

The Democratic Socialists of America are drawing increased attention in Florida politics after recent electoral wins, including St. Petersburg Council Vice Chair Richie Floyd's unopposed reelection as a self-identified democratic socialist. State Rep. Angie Nixon, who joined a North Florida DSA chapter, does not use the "democratic socialist" label herself but defeated Alex Vindman and will face Sen. Ashley Moody in November. Tampa Rep. Kathy Castor this week joined Republicans in denouncing the DSA; she faces Trump-endorsed Mike Beltran in a Republican-leaning district.

National debate has intensified over a DSA proposal to weaken or abolish the U.S. Senate and subordinate the Executive Branch and Supreme Court to the House. Florida Republican Party chair Evan Power criticized the platform as government overreach into energy, housing, and insurance, arguing similar policies have failed elsewhere. The controversy underscores how DSA-aligned candidates and proposals could shape competitive Florida races this cycle.

Florida lawmakers passed more than 200 bills this session, with a batch of new laws on crime and public safety set to take effect October 1. Among the most notable is HB 429, which broadens the criteria for classifying someone as a criminal gang member, allowing designation based on social media activity, repeated association with known gang members, or identification by a parent, guardian, or spouse. Critics, including State Rep. Michele Rayner, warned the law could sweep up people not actually involved in gang activity.

Also taking effect is HB 397, sponsored by State Rep. Dan Daley, which creates a new criminal offense for violating pretrial "no-contact" orders in violent crime cases such as murder, assault, stalking, kidnapping, robbery, and sexual battery, and allows warrantless arrests when probable cause exists. These two measures join ten other new laws addressing rental fraud, license plates, animal cruelty, and firearms.

Florida voters have less than two weeks to decide on Amendment 3, which would raise the state's homestead exemption for non-school property taxes from $50,000 to $150,000 by 2027 and $250,000 by 2028. Homeowners would need at least five years of ownership to qualify for the reduced tax bill. A Florida Policy Institute report estimates eligible homeowners would save $13.7 billion combined in the first two years. Local officials, including Tampa Mayor Jane Castor and leaders in Clearwater and Pinellas County, have raised concerns about lost revenue and potential cuts to city and county services, while Gov. Ron DeSantis has voiced support. The measure needs 60% approval to pass and would take effect in January.

Sarasota city and county officials met to detail the potential financial fallout of a proposed Florida constitutional amendment that would raise the homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, pending voter approval in November.

City projections show the change would strip $5.6 million from Sarasota's budget by fiscal year 2029, an amount officials say equates to funding for roughly 37 police officers. County estimates put the loss at $87 million over the same period, with the sheriff's office alone facing a $35 million cut.

Governor Ron DeSantis has pushed back on concerns raised by local officials statewide, arguing that municipal revenues have nearly doubled since 2019 and that governments can absorb the exemption increase without service cuts. Critics, including Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd, contend no financial analysis was done before placing the measure on the ballot and are urging voters to reject it while pressing the legislature to address property tax relief separately.