Who Will Win New York’s 13th Congressional District House Race
New York’s 13th Congressional District, covering most of Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx, heads to voters in the 2026 midterm elections to choose its U.S. House representative. The district has long been one of the most heavily Democratic in the country, making the general election outcome largely a function of the Democratic primary. Candidates are positioning ahead of the race, with the eventual nominee expected to be a strong favorite in November.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often hinges on marginal seats, but safe districts like NY-13 still matter for shaping the chamber’s ideological makeup. The race offers a window into intra-party dynamics among Democrats, including generational and ideological divides playing out in urban districts nationwide. The eventual winner will represent a dense, diverse constituency facing housing, immigration, and economic pressures.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is which party, and ultimately which individual candidate, secures the seat. Because the district tilts heavily toward one party, the real uncertainty lies in identifying the specific nominee likely to emerge victorious rather than the partisan outcome itself. This makes the contract less about a toss-up and more about resolving ambiguity among multiple named contenders.
Related terms
Total Volume
$46.9k
Kalshi $3.9k · Polymarket $43k
Leading Market
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Darializa Avila Chevalier Volume
$18.8k
Kalshi $2.1k · Polymarket $16.7k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darializa Avila ChevalierDemocratic Party | 99.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Darializa Avila Chevalier on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Darializa Avila Chevalier on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Manual "Jomo" WilliamsRepublican Party | 1.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Manual "Jomo" Williams on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Manual WilliamsRepublican Party | — | — | — | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade Manual Williams on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darializa Avila ChevalierDemocratic Party | $18,806.10 | ||
| Manual "Jomo" WilliamsRepublican Party | $1,839.05 | No market | |
| Manual WilliamsRepublican Party | $26,244.28 | No market |