Who Will Win New York’s 16th Congressional District in 2026?

Several New York Democrats running in competitive House races are putting distance between themselves and Gov. Kathy Hochul weeks before Election Day. Rep. Tom Suozzi skipped a Hochul campaign stop on Long Island, citing a scheduling conflict, while Rep. Laura Gillen attended. In New York's 17th District, challenger Cait Conley was caught on video agreeing with GOP Rep. Mike Lawler that "Hochul has got to go," later calling Hochul to smooth things over. Blake Gendebien, running in the 21st District, declined to say if he'd support Hochul. Recent Siena polling shows Hochul's favorability underwater and her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman narrowing in suburban and upstate areas, reviving concerns about coattail effects seen in 2022.

New York's Department of Health is encountering significant problems as it transitions more than 147,000 Medicaid and Medicare Savings Program enrollees to a new case management system. Officials say only about a third of those enrollees have been able to automatically renew coverage without extra assistance since the rollout began roughly a year ago.

The effort is part of a push to replace outdated, paper-based local processes with a centralized system run through New York State of Health, the state's public insurance marketplace. The system, built by Deloitte Consulting, was initially a $177 million contract signed in 2023 but has since grown to $1.18 billion after four amendments, including an $866 million extension. A second wave of more complex cases, including long-term care and nursing home patients, is expected to migrate between November 2027 and February 2028.

Advocates say the system has produced inappropriate coverage denials affecting elderly, blind, and disabled residents, citing inaccurate data transfers and flawed automated verification tools. State officials acknowledge ongoing issues but say they are being addressed as flagged.

Control of Pennsylvania's state Senate could hinge on three Philadelphia suburban districts, as Democrats aim to flip the chamber for the first time in 33 years. Republicans currently hold 27 of 50 seats; Democrats need to flip at least two and retain the governor's office to take the majority via the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.

Democratic challengers Eileen Hartnett Albillar (6th District, Bucks County), Mark Pinsley (16th District, Bucks/Lehigh), and Chris Thomas (24th District, Montgomery/Berks) are challenging GOP incumbents Frank Farry, Jarrett Coleman, and Tracy Pennycuick, respectively. All three districts favor Republicans in voter registration, though Gov. Josh Shapiro has endorsed the Democratic candidates and his own reelection bid is on the same ballot.

Both parties are centering campaigns on affordability, with Democrats tying races to dissatisfaction with President Trump's handling of the economy and gas prices, while Republicans emphasize fiscal restraint and bipartisan legislative wins. A Democratic trifecta would open the door to priorities like a minimum wage increase and transportation funding previously blocked by the GOP-controlled Senate.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez met with Syracuse Mayor Sharon Owens for an hour-long lunch at the Salt City Market, part of a tour that also included stops in Buffalo and Ithaca. At each stop, she met with local Democratic and Working Families Party members to discuss strategies for re-engaging infrequent voters.

Notably absent from the conversation was any discussion of Ocasio-Cortez's own political future, despite widespread speculation she could run for U.S. Senate or the presidency in 2028. Owens said she appreciated that the congresswoman kept the focus on local and federal issues affecting Syracuse residents, including the Trump administration's deportation enforcement, the Interstate 81 viaduct removal project, and the state's recent withdrawal from project labor agreements. Owens also raised concerns about synthetic drug legislation and the taxation of large tax-exempt property owners like Syracuse University, noting Ocasio-Cortez said similar concerns arose in Ithaca regarding Cornell University. Monday's meeting was the first between the two officials.

New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.

Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.

Control of the U.S. House this fall hinges on a map of roughly three dozen to 50 competitive races, with Democrats needing a net gain of just three seats to win the majority. Historically, the president's party has gained House seats in a midterm only twice since 1946, and Democrats are favored by generic-ballot polling and President Trump's low approval ratings, though analysts note Republican gerrymandering has made more Democratic-held seats competitive, offsetting some of that advantage. GOP leaders point to legislative wins and plan to tie Democrats to the party's left flank.

Key races include New York's 17th District (Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley), Long Island's 3rd and 4th Districts, New Jersey's 7th, Ohio's 9th and 7th, California's 22nd and 48th, Arizona's 1st, and Virginia's 2nd. A House flip would make Hakeem Jeffries speaker and could block Trump's agenda while enabling investigative oversight.

Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.

Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman met in their only televised debate ahead of New York's gubernatorial election, hosted by NY1. Polling shows Hochul leading by a wide margin, putting pressure on Blakeman to produce a breakout moment while Hochul aims to project gubernatorial competence, particularly on affordability issues like utility bills and cost of living. Blakeman's campaign has leaned into an alliance with President Trump, including a recent joint rally in Syracuse, while Hochul has worked to tie her opponent to the unpopular president. Trump's standing in deep-blue New York remains a central dynamic of the race, amplified by fallout from a recent ICE shooting in Manhattan that has strained relations between the administration and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

The debate followed a separate state attorney general matchup last week between Democratic incumbent Letitia James and GOP challenger Saritha Komatireddy, whose strong performance generated viral attention. Both races are being closely watched as bellwethers heading into the broader midterm cycle.

Missouri's 4th Congressional District race pits two-term Republican incumbent Mark Alford, a former TV anchor serving on House Armed Services and Appropriations committees, against Democrat Jordan Herrera, an Air Force veteran and Missouri assistant attorney general, and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook. Alford campaigns on an America First platform, border enforcement and reduced federal spending, while Herrera emphasizes economic security, healthcare access and limiting government regulation of personal life. Holbrook opposes gerrymandering and tariffs. The district's boundaries remain contested: the 2022 map, used for this election, covers west-central Missouri, while a newer 2025 map used for the primary would shift Kansas City into the district instead of District 5.