Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District House Race Winner
Prediction markets are tracking the 2026 race for Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, a U.S. House seat in the northeastern part of the state. The district has been a closely watched battleground in recent election cycles, with competitive contests between Democratic and Republican candidates.
Why It Matters
Minnesota’s 8th District has shifted in political alignment over the past decade, evolving from a traditionally Democratic-leaning area into a swing district shaped by its mix of Iron Range mining communities and northern suburban and rural voters. The outcome here is often viewed as a bellwether for broader trends among working-class and rural voters in the Upper Midwest. With control of the U.S. House frequently decided by narrow margins, individual district races like this one carry outsized significance for the balance of power in Congress.
How Markets Frame It
Trading venues have structured this contest as a binary outcome between the Democratic and Republican parties, alongside contracts tied to specific named candidates. Traders weigh factors such as candidate fundraising, primary outcomes, historical voting patterns in the district, and broader national political sentiment heading into the midterm cycle. As the field of candidates solidifies and the general election approaches, contract structures may be refined to reflect confirmed nominees.
Markets covering this race include contracts for the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, individual named candidates, and a catch-all option for any other party or candidate to win the seat.
Related terms
-
Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Congress -
Minnesota -
Democrat Party (epithet) -
Swing (seat) -
Duluth, Minnesota -
Iron Range -
Pete Stauber
Total Volume
$70.7k
Kalshi $53.9k · Polymarket $16.8k
Leading Market
Pete Stauber
Kalshi 83% · Polymarket 85%
Pete Stauber Volume
$37.6k
Kalshi $30.7k · Polymarket $6.9k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete StauberRepublican Party | 83.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
85.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Trina SwansonDemocratic Party | 17.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
16.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
In the News
Duluth Diocese opens sainthood cause for 19th-century missionary priest
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
The Diocese of Duluth has formally launched the Cause for Canonization of Monsignor Joseph Francis Buh, a Slovenian-born priest who spent roughly 60 years as a missionary in northern Minnesota beginning in the 1860s. Buh served Indigenous communities and Slovenian immigrants across a vast territory, at times traveling by snowshoe or canoe. A Mass marking the start of the process was held September 22 at the Cathedral of Our Lady of the Rosary, drawing hundreds of attendees, including a newly formed historical commission tasked with researching his life and virtues.
Bishop Daniel Felton received Vatican approval to begin the inquiry after consulting with other bishops, noting this is the diocese's first sainthood candidate. The process requires investigators to establish that Buh lived a life of "heroic virtue," a prerequisite before the case can advance toward beatification and eventual canonization, the latter stages of which require verified miracles. Such causes typically span decades; the National Catholic Register puts the average timeline at about 49 years, with no fixed schedule for completion.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Duluth, Minnesota Duluth, Minnesota is highlighted as the location of its diocese's first sainthood cause, a notable and favorable civic/religious milestone.
- Minnesota Minnesota is mentioned as the region where the missionary priest served for decades, a mild positive historical association.
Related Events
Related Events
Energy
Data centers emerge as rare bipartisan flashpoint amid AI boom
PN Team • 2 months ago
Data centers are drawing unusual bipartisan scrutiny as their rapid expansion to support artificial intelligence collides with local concerns over energy use, water consumption, and community impact. While debates over technology and infrastructure often split along party lines, opposition to large-scale data center projects is emerging among both Democrats and Republicans, complicating assumptions about who supports or resists the buildout.
A proposal by Google to site a data center in Hermantown, Minnesota, near Lake Superior's ample water supply, illustrates the trend. Despite the area's Republican lean, skepticism toward the project has not broken down neatly along partisan lines. Similar patterns have surfaced elsewhere, including among conservative legislative candidates in Wisconsin's Republican primary, several of whom favored local control over data center siting rather than outright support.
The dynamic matters for policymakers and industry alike, as the AI sector's massive infrastructure needs increasingly depend on winning over skeptical communities regardless of political affiliation, potentially reshaping how future data center projects are permitted and sited nationwide.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are mentioned as internally divided on data center siting, a neutral factual observation about political dynamics.
Related Events
Related Events
Politics
Michigan man sentenced for threatening to kill ICE agents in Minneapolis operation
PN Team • 2 months ago
A federal judge in Wisconsin has sentenced Justin Ward, 32, of Ironwood, Mich., to time served and three years of supervised release after he pleaded guilty to threatening to kill federal immigration agents during a high-profile ICE operation in Minneapolis. Chief U.S. District Judge James Peterson handed down the sentence, citing Ward's mental health crisis at the time and the custody time he had already served, which aligned with sentencing guidelines.
The case began in January 2026 when Michigan's Gogebic County Sheriff's Office investigated Ward for threatening a local officer. Deputies tracked him via Facebook posts showing he was heading toward Duluth through Wisconsin, where he then posted threats to kill ICE agents amid the widely publicized Minneapolis enforcement operation. He was quickly arrested following a joint investigation by the sheriff's office and FBI. Judge Peterson imposed strict release conditions, including a curfew and GPS monitoring.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Law enforcement Law enforcement is portrayed as effectively investigating and apprehending the suspect through a joint sheriff's office and FBI effort.
- Minneapolis Minneapolis is linked to a high-profile ICE enforcement operation that became the target of threats, a mildly negative association.
- Michigan Michigan is referenced as the suspect's home state and where the initial investigation began, a neutral factual detail.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is mentioned as the location of sentencing and where the suspect traveled through, a neutral factual detail.
- Duluth, Minnesota Duluth is mentioned only as a location the suspect was heading toward, with no reputational implication.
Related Events
Related Events
Local & State
Ohio law change forces Copley Township to seek additional fire levy instead of replacement levy
PN Team • 1 month ago
Copley Township, Ohio, is asking voters to approve a new fire levy on Nov. 3 after a state law change eliminated an option that officials said could have raised about $1.7 million more per year. House Bill 96 ended the authority of townships and other political subdivisions to seek replacement property-tax levies for elections held on or after Jan. 1, 2026; Gov. Mike DeWine vetoed the provision, but the Ohio House and Senate completed a veto override by Oct. 1.
With that option gone, Copley trustees moved to put a three-year, 1.7-mill additional fire levy, Issue 49, on the ballot, which the county estimates would raise more than $1.3 million annually. The township's fire department faces about $4.2 million in scheduled capital spending from 2027 through 2032, including a new fire engine and ladder truck, against roughly $1.6 million in reserves. Unlike a replacement levy, which is imposed at the original voted rate, the new levy would be added on top of the township's two existing continuing fire levies, which remain unchanged. If approved, taxes would first be payable in 2027.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike DeWine DeWine is mentioned as having vetoed the provision, a factual note that is not particularly favorable or unfavorable, though the override that followed slightly undercuts his stance.
- Ohio Ohio is referenced as the state whose law change created a funding shortfall for a township, a mildly negative factual context.
- Summit County, Ohio Summit County is mentioned only as the entity estimating levy revenue, a neutral factual reference.
Related Events
Related Events
Local & State
St. Paul mayor restores funding for Dayton’s Bluff Library, Highwood Hills rec center
PN Team • 1 month ago
St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her has reversed course on some proposed 2027 budget cuts, announcing a supplemental budget that restores funding for the Dayton's Bluff Library lease, the Highwood Hills Rec Center, and morning hours at recreation centers citywide. The $574,000 in added spending is funded by $274,000 in savings from the city's shift to even-year elections and $300,000 in new revenue from a franchise agreement with Xcel Energy.
The reversal follows criticism from City Council Member Cheniqua Johnson and East Side residents over an initial proposal that would have closed the only library slated for shutdown and cut rec center services disproportionately affecting the East Side. The Duluth and Case rec center, however, remains on track for eventual closure due to its aging infrastructure and unfunded rebuild costs estimated at $30-40 million. The council is set to vote September 23 on a maximum property tax levy increase, with the final budget to be finalized in December.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Duluth, Minnesota Duluth is mentioned only in reference to the Duluth and Case rec center facing eventual closure, a mild negative outcome.
- Saint Paul, Minnesota Saint Paul is the setting for a balanced municipal budget story with both positive and negative elements.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Moskowitz and Singer spar over Israel in Florida’s 25th District race
PN Team • 1 week ago
In Florida's 25th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz and Republican challenger Scott Singer, both Jewish, debated their pro-Israel credentials at a Boca Raton synagogue forum ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. The two largely agree on Israel policy — opposing conditions on U.S. military aid and rejecting genocide accusations against Israel — but clashed over Moskowitz's vote for a war powers resolution on Iran and his past vote to keep Rep. Ilhan Omar on the Foreign Affairs Committee. Moskowitz cited his AIPAC endorsement; Singer touted backing from Trump and the RJC. The redrawn district, once Biden-leaning, now favors Trump, making the race a closely watched midterm battleground.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ilhan Omar Omar is referenced in connection with a controversial vote tied to accusations against Israel, casting her in a negative light within the debate.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement of Singer is cited favorably to bolster Singer's campaign credentials.
- Jared Moskowitz Moskowitz defends his record but faces criticism over his votes, creating a mildly negative framing amid a balanced portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) Moskowitz's party affiliation is mentioned factually without added reputational weight.
- Florida Florida is the neutral location of the congressional race.
- Iran Iran is referenced factually regarding the war powers resolution vote.
- Israel Israel is the central neutral policy topic of the debate.
- Republican Party (United States) Singer's party affiliation is mentioned factually without added reputational weight.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced contextually as the body the candidates seek to join.
- United States House of Representatives The House is the body the district race determines representation for, mentioned neutrally.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Rural Minnesota House race tests populist appeal amid economic strain
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
A November 3 legislative race in Minnesota's largest House district, 3A, is drawing attention as a test of rural populist politics amid worsening economic conditions. Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Skraba, who narrowly won the seat in 2022 before a comfortable 2024 victory, faces DFL challenger Kania, who has been outworking the campaign trail despite trailing badly in fundraising. Kania is betting that door-knocking and a focus on mining, health care, and forest management can recreate the kind of cross-coalition appeal once shown by Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party figures like Gov. Rudy Perpich and Sen. Paul Wellstone, who dominated the region decades earlier. The race remains a long shot for Democrats but reflects broader questions about rural voters' patience with economic decline.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Minnesota Minnesota is the setting for a race framed around economic decline and rural voter frustration, a mildly negative backdrop.
- Democratic Party (United States) DFL is a Minnesota affiliate of the Democratic Party, mentioned neutrally as the challenger's party context.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party The party is referenced with nostalgic mention of past dominance under Perpich and Wellstone, balanced against current long-shot status.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Minnesota’s Senate and Governor Primaries Set to Reshape 2026 Ballot
PN Team • 2 months ago
Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.
Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Law enforcement Federal agents (law enforcement) killed two protesters during an immigration operation, a clearly negative portrayal.
- Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is portrayed favorably as facing minimal opposition in her gubernatorial primary, indicating strong political standing.
- Peggy Flanagan Flanagan is portrayed favorably with strong progressive endorsements, positioning her as a competitive candidate.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders is mentioned as backing Flanagan, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Donald Trump Trump is noted for endorsing Lindell, a tangential mention with slight negative connotation given Lindell's controversial reputation.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is mentioned as backing Flanagan, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Hakeem Jeffries Jeffries is mentioned as backing Craig, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Ilhan Omar Omar is mentioned as backing Flanagan, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Pete Buttigieg Buttigieg is mentioned as backing Craig, a neutral-to-mildly favorable association.
- Republican Party of Minnesota The state GOP is noted as seeking its first statewide win since 2006, implying a losing streak.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's primary contests are the central subject, described neutrally as a factual electoral process.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party The Minnesota DFL primary contest is the central subject of the article, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican side is discussed factually regarding candidates and the party's electoral drought.
- Israel Israel is mentioned as a point of political contention regarding AIPAC funding, a neutral factual reference.
- Lisa Demuth Demuth is listed as a gubernatorial candidate without further characterization.
- Minnesota Minnesota is the central location of the article's electoral coverage, described neutrally.
- State governments of the United States State government references are tangential and neutral, related to the governor's race outcome.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the broader context for the midterm elections without specific characterization.
- United States House of Representatives The House is referenced regarding Craig's open 2nd District seat, a neutral factual mention.
- United States Senate The Senate seat race is the central neutral subject of the article.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Klobuchar Enters Minnesota Governor’s Race, Pitching Moderation
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Sen. Amy Klobuchar is seeking to become Minnesota's next governor, casting herself as a moderate Democrat who can repair the state's reputation and address pandemic-era welfare fraud scandals that Republicans have used to paint Minnesota as a cautionary tale of liberal governance. Klobuchar, who built a national profile during her 2020 presidential run and has served in the U.S. Senate, is widely seen as the favorite in the race.
Her campaign comes as Minnesota Democrats face scrutiny over fraud tied to pandemic relief programs, along with lingering political fallout from the 2020 murder of George Floyd and subsequent unrest in Minneapolis and St. Paul. Klobuchar is positioning herself against more progressive currents within her party, emphasizing pragmatic governance over ideological approaches associated with democratic socialism. The race is being watched as a test of whether centrist Democrats can reclaim ground in a state Republicans have targeted as emblematic of government mismanagement, with implications for broader 2026 gubernatorial and midterm dynamics.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is portrayed favorably as a pragmatic frontrunner seeking to repair her state's reputation.
- Minneapolis Minneapolis is linked to unrest following George Floyd's murder, a negative association.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is depicted as facing fraud scandals and ideological rifts, posing a reputational challenge.
- Minnesota Minnesota is portrayed as grappling with fraud scandals and being used as a political cautionary tale.
- Saint Paul, Minnesota St. Paul is mentioned alongside Minneapolis in the context of unrest tied to the Floyd case.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are mentioned as effectively attacking Minnesota Democrats, framing them as politically active without direct criticism of the party itself.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned neutrally as part of Klobuchar's background and experience.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Flanagan holds narrow lead over Tafoya in Minnesota Senate race poll
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan with a modest lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, one of the few Republicans hope to flip this cycle despite a difficult national environment for the GOP.
Flanagan's edge is driven largely by lopsided margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, reflecting broader dissatisfaction among Minnesota voters with President Donald Trump. Some voters, including independents critical of both parties, cited opposition to Trump's policies, including the administration's actions regarding Iran, as a reason for backing Flanagan.
Despite the deficit, the poll results support Tafoya's contention that she is running competitively in a traditionally Democratic-leaning state, bucking broader national trends that favor Democrats this cycle. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, and Democrats appear more enthusiastic heading into the election even as national Republicans focus resources on defending seats in more conservative states.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is associated with voter dissatisfaction and opposition driving support away from the GOP candidate.
- Peggy Flanagan Flanagan is shown holding a lead with strong county margins and voter enthusiasm.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as facing a difficult national environment and trailing in a key race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown with a lead and higher enthusiasm in the race, a modestly favorable portrayal.
- Michele Tafoya Tafoya trails in the poll though the piece notes she claims competitiveness.
- Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party Flanagan's party affiliation benefits from her poll lead and voter enthusiasm.
- Independent politician Independent voters are mentioned neutrally as a swing group critical of both parties.
- Minnesota Minnesota is the setting of the race, described factually without reputational spin.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is mentioned factually as the office being contested.
Related Events
Related Events
Related Events
Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District: Who Wins the House Seat
Leading:
62.5%
Brad Finstad
Vol $10.7k
Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District House race winner
Leading:
94.5%
Tom Emmer
Vol $11.2k
Minnesota’s 4th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
98.5%
Betty McCollum
Vol $15.5k
Minnesota’s 5th District House Race 2026: Who Will Win
Leading:
97.5%
Ilhan Omar
Vol $314.2k
Oregon’s 5th Congressional District: Who Will Win the House Seat?
Leading:
97.5%
Janelle S Bynum
Vol $7.4k
Wisconsin’s 1st District House Seat: Who Will Win?
Leading:
49.5%
Mitchell Berman
Vol $2.7k
Ohio’s 13th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
95.5%
Emilia Sykes
Vol $23.7k
North Carolina’s 1st District House Race
Leading:
85%
Don Davis
Vol $349.5k