Minnesota’s 5th District House Race 2026: Who Will Win

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.

Homeland Security Investigations agents executed a search warrant Monday at Rep. Ilhan Omar's Washington, D.C. residence, seizing her phone, passport and computers, as part of a probe into whether she or her late father falsified her citizenship paperwork decades ago. The investigation could potentially lead to denaturalization proceedings against the congresswoman. Members of Minnesota's Somali community, including Minneapolis City Council Vice President Jamal Osman, denounced the raid as an abuse of power and an escalation of Trump's rhetoric against Omar and Somali Americans. Omar called the raid an "outrageous abuse of power" meant to intimidate a political opponent. Trump said the matter was up to the Department of Justice, calling Omar a "terrible person."

In Florida's 25th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz and Republican challenger Scott Singer, both Jewish, debated their pro-Israel credentials at a Boca Raton synagogue forum ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. The two largely agree on Israel policy — opposing conditions on U.S. military aid and rejecting genocide accusations against Israel — but clashed over Moskowitz's vote for a war powers resolution on Iran and his past vote to keep Rep. Ilhan Omar on the Foreign Affairs Committee. Moskowitz cited his AIPAC endorsement; Singer touted backing from Trump and the RJC. The redrawn district, once Biden-leaning, now favors Trump, making the race a closely watched midterm battleground.

Former Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton has re-emerged into public view more than seven years after leaving office, promoting a new memoir titled "Perseverance." Speaking at the Minnesota History Center, Dayton reflected on a political career shaped by inheritance, setbacks and repeated comebacks, citing advice from Ted Kennedy that perseverance is a prerequisite for political success. Dayton, who lost two races and won four during his career, served one term in the U.S. Senate and two terms as governor, overseeing achievements including the legalization of same-sex marriage in Minnesota, construction of U.S. Bank Stadium, the Destination Medical Center initiative and a renovation of the State Capitol.

In the book's closing passages, Dayton criticized congressional Republicans as subservient to President Trump and accused the Supreme Court's conservative majority of granting the presidency excessive power, calling it "a prescription for tyranny." He also drew comparisons between recent protests over federal immigration enforcement actions in Minnesota and antiwar demonstrations from his youth. Asked about fraud schemes involving Feeding Our Future and autism services, Dayton said officials had been caught off guard by the scale of the deception.

Videos circulating from the Portland, Oregon area show local activists, including bar co-owner Kiley Delgado and her husband Karim, using personal vehicles to blockade and surround U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers during field operations. The footage, recorded by Delgado herself, shows cars maneuvered to box in federal vehicles while bystanders are recruited in real time to help trap the agents, who in one instance reportedly had to drive through a residential hedge to leave the scene.

The incidents come as the Department of Homeland Security has expanded immigration enforcement activity in sanctuary jurisdictions across several states, including Oregon, prompting increased counter-surveillance and direct-action tactics from local activist networks tracking ICE vehicles near Portland. Critics note that similar vehicle-blockade incidents involving other residents have previously drawn arrests and political attention, including commentary from Oregon's congressional delegation, raising questions about uneven enforcement. No charges against the Delgados have been publicly reported. The episodes highlight escalating friction between federal immigration authorities and sanctuary-city activists as enforcement operations intensify nationwide.

Republican Eric Flores, challenging Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas's 34th Congressional District, criticized the incumbent's record and positions in an appearance on Breitbart News Daily. Flores argued that post-redistricting changes have turned the once-Democratic-leaning seat into a competitive tossup now favoring Republicans slightly. He accused Gonzalez of being largely absent from Congress over his decade in office, passing little substantive legislation, and aligning with progressive positions on abortion and transgender issues that Flores says are out of step with south Texas voters. Flores framed Gonzalez's attempts to present himself as a moderate Democrat as inconsistent with his voting record, underscoring the race's significance as one of the nation's most closely watched House contests.

Florida's two marquee 2026 statewide races present unusual racial pairings, and candidates are handling the dynamic very differently. In the Senate race, Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive from Jacksonville, faces Republican Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds, who could become Florida's first Black governor, is running against David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat with strong Black voter support.

Analysts say Donalds has mostly avoided Black-specific outreach and race-focused messaging, emphasizing the economy and school choice instead, reflecting a common strategy for Black conservative candidates wary of alienating their base. Despite recent efforts to court Black voters, polling shows Jolly holding a commanding lead among Black voters. Nixon, by contrast, has leaned into discussing race directly while also courting white working-class voters with economic messaging, trailing Moody in current polling but with strategists calling her a credible underdog capable of winning with strong turnout.

Donalds has continued to draw national attention on other issues, recently criticizing far-left Florida Democrats who have called to abolish ICE amid the broader immigration debate.

Illinois Rep. Delia Ramirez has introduced the "Reimagining Safety Act," legislation that would abolish the Department of Homeland Security and ICE, replacing DHS with a new Department of Community Safety. The move follows a federal raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's Washington home, where Homeland Security Investigations agents searched the property early Monday as part of a Justice Department probe into decades-old paperwork, seizing her phone and issuing subpoenas to relatives. Omar called the raid an "outrageous abuse of power"; President Trump denied involvement.

Ramirez's 71-page bill would shift immigration enforcement to the Justice Department, customs to Treasury, and TSA/Coast Guard to Transportation, while redirecting DHS funds toward Medicare for All, housing, and education. It has fewer than seven co-sponsors and faces long odds in the Republican-controlled Congress. Republicans have called the proposal "utterly insane," while some moderate Democrats also oppose abolishing ICE. Separately, Ramirez joined advocacy groups to unveil a broader immigration reform platform with 19 congressional co-sponsors and backing from 54 civil rights organizations.

Colorado, once a reliable Republican state, has leaned decidedly Democratic in recent cycles, and 2026 looks similar. Gov. Phil Weiser and Sen. John Hickenlooper are favored for easy wins over underfunded Republican opponents Victor Marx and Mark Baisley, with some GOP figures, including former Rep. Ken Buck, crossing over to back Weiser. The closest races are in the U.S. House: Democrat Manny Rutinel is seen as favored over Republican incumbent Gabe Evans in District 8, while Republican incumbent Jeff Crank is expected to hold District 5 against well-funded Democrat Jessica Killin despite backlash over the Space Command relocation. Analysts attribute the overall Democratic advantage to anti-Trump sentiment and weak Republican statewide recruitment.

A shooting outside an Eden Prairie, Minnesota high school's homecoming football game on October 3 left a 17-year-old and an 18-year-old hospitalized with gunshot wounds, prompting a stadium evacuation and the cancellation of the following night's homecoming dance. Authorities believe the shooting stemmed from a feud involving Somali gang members.

On October 8, police arrested 18-year-old Adam Abdihakeem Adam of St. Louis Park near a Minneapolis intersection, booking him into Hennepin County Jail on probable cause for second-degree assault. He was released on bail within about 48 hours, drawing sharp criticism from Republican officials, including U.S. Rep. Tom Emmer, who blamed the release on a lenient judge and Minnesota's broader criminal justice policies. The case has become a flashpoint in ongoing political debates in Minnesota over bail practices, judicial discretion, and crime policy ahead of the state's November elections.